[throwaway936482]

Largely because we locked down the entire country and had largely stopped community transmission by then I imagine. Now that lockdown has been lifted and what restrictions there are are increasingly being ignored we are seeing increased community transmission, a concomitant increase in hospital admissions and should start seeing an increase in deaths over the next couple of weeks. Hopefully this wave of deaths will be lower because we are better prepared and have better treatments, and also because the rise in infections is being driven by young people.

[logicchains]

> a concomitant increase in hospital admissions and should start seeing an increase in deaths over the next couple of weeks.

For the past couple months people have been predicting an increase in deaths to follow the increase in cases, but it hasn't happened.

[throwaway936482]

Yeah but there wasn't really an increase in covid related hospital admissions until recently. Given the issues with the uks testing (and reporting) regime it's rather difficult to draw any conclusions about infection rates from the most widely cited set of figures which are numbers tested (or tests mailed out, or tests manufactured or possibly some other definition of test known only to Matt Hancock). The ONS estimates based on random sampling however show that the infection rate only started increasing again at the beginning of September, which explains why we've only seen hospital admissions rising over the last couple of weeks and deaths haven't climbed much yet. Also, so far, it seems not to have started spreading through care homes again like earlier in the year, which is one of the things which seems to have driven up the death rate so high.