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harmegido | 5 years ago

This is a very cool app, but one thing I'm noticing is that you aren't providing any numbers about expectations (expected earnings/share, etc). Stock prices are forward projections, so it's less about how much money made/lost and more about how much money made/lost beyond current expectations. And this is certainly information a real insider trader would have.

Perhaps that would improve players results?

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bko|5 years ago

Thats funny because that was the exact comment Matt Levine made in our email correspondence. I mentioned I'd be happy to include it if he got me a Bloomberg api subscription, but no luck!

My guess would be that expectations wouldn't help much. The analysts at banks that provide estimates are relatively conservative (don't want to stick out from the crowd too much). For instance, it's much better to be way off from actual as compared to other analyst estimates. Because you can always say everyone else believed the same thing as an excuse. If you're way off from others and you happen to be wrong, then thats more embarrassing.

The analysts also rely on internal estimates pretty heavily, and companies aren't dumb, so they usually downplay expectations. So much so that the majority of companies beat their own estimates (over 70% of the time). So I think these numbers are gamed and without being a sophisticated practitioner, they wouldn't help IMO

[0] https://insight.factset.com/record-performance-vs.-eps-estim...