[manyhats]

Equities in a given sector, whether public or private, tend to be highly correlated, but external observers just don't really get the full picture unless they dig into the specifics of the situation.

IME, private marks in aggregate are less volatile than equivalent public performance for a wide range of reasons, but that doesn't mean that a private manager can liquidate a portfolio company at an optimistic mark in a downcycle any more than the manager wouldn't be able to get a better price than the last mark in an upswing.

I think it's also worth clarifying for other readers that the risk you're talking about is volatility and has nothing to do with the actual fundamental risks of a given investment. Private equity (broadly defined) managers look to minimize risks in their investments, but they're talking about business and financing risks. I don't think I've ever heard a private equity manager ever talk about minimizing volatility and I'm ok with that.