This looks like a series on how to build a relatively straightforward operating model with a focus on cash balance and "founder value" (I guess that's attributable equity to the founder)
The article explicitly, repeatedly says templates are a bad idea. If you disagree, it'd be interesting to see your reasoning, rather than links to free templates.
It’s interesting to see the proliferation of tools focused on tackling these business needs. This post reminded me of http://usesummit.com which allows to create financial forecasting models
> Google sheets is convenient for making changes and having multiple people editing, but sending an investor a model in Google sheets signals that you are not financially savvy.
I do wonder how many of these 'signals' there are, and what weight they really carry for investors.
This may have been true in 2016, but since then, I’ve seen CEOs raising multimillion dollar rounds using Google Sheets, financial modeling software, and Excel alike.
There’s certainly still some preference towards Excel in 2020, but in no way using sheets will mean that you’re not “financially savvy.”
Yep, this is where I switched off. If the advice is to "look good" to investors based on the type of spreadsheet program you use you've got bigger problems.
There's a bigger issue here, apart from the outdated advice.
It's just BAD advice to begin with.
What it signals is lack of tech savvy in the investors. It does not in any way shape or form signal any lack of financial savvy on the part of the founder.
If you're starting a tech company, do you REALLY want to work with an investor who can't open a cloud spreadsheet ffs?
This particular one is outdated advice. I’ve seen many financings the past few years, and many really sophisticated google sheets models. It’s a total no-op what you use as long as it can model what you need it to.
Is it useful to have a startup financial model if you're still at the early stages?
I've analyzed over 480 founder interviews (mostly for their acquisition channels [1]) and there's 1 adjective that defines their growth: "messy". They pitched a bunch of journalists, did a trial & error for 100s of ads on FB/Google, had search traffic after 6 months of trying (but 0 before that) and so on.
There's a sub-headline in the article that says "Why Should Founders Care about Building a Financial Model?"...I think a more important question is "WHEN"?
Yes. It’s almost never too early to build a financial model. As noted in the original article, your model will always be wrong. However, the exercise of creating the model and using it to build out strawman scenarios is enormously helpful to let you understand how internal burn rates, customer acquisition costs, COGS, recurring revenues, etc all interact and how those could line up to different fundraising timelines. I’m not sure how you can reasonably start working full time on a business or idea without at least a rough model to play with.
Most startups have a financial model before they start doing business, because most startups aren't in tech.
Tech is the only market where you have the luxury to not know what your revenue model is, or even what your product is, for months or years after you have "launched."
Given the high rate of failure with tech startups, more financial modeling in the early stages would probably have resulted in more meaningful attempts at creating value, rather than the constant copycatting you currently see.
The saying goes: "Plans are useless but Planning is invaluable" - and it goes well with "No business plan survives first contact with the customers" (which was adapted from IIRC Churchil's "No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy", even though customers shouldn't in general be regarded as enemies)
Adding a +1 for building your first models by hand, before using something "on rails". Perhaps until say $5M ARR for B2B SaaS.
My experience was that I have a much better command of the important levers in my business -- and can more easily scenario plan -- with a robust model that I built myself. Much easier to derive key metrics out of it too. And once you have a starting point, it's easy to iterate and expand it as the business grows.
My limited experience with the "financial model as a service" apps are that they make a bunch of assumptions for you and make it a lot harder to ad hoc plan. i.e. What if we delayed our hiring round of 5 headcount 2 months? What's the impact on ending cash balance? What's the impact if I move part of my ARR pricing into an up-front setup cost? What if we offer quarterly payments instead of annual pre-paid, and 30% of our clients opt for that (where does that leave cash)? etc. These are things that you could do in Excel in about 10 minutes with even a basic model, but would be challenging to do in another person's app.
IMO an early-stage SaaS startup's initial model should be focused on ARR/cash burn, looked at Monthly, with true planning cycles quarterly or maybe every 6-months if progress is more or less on plan.
I don't think I was asked in a single board meeting until $4M ARR or so about Revenue. ARR and cash are king.
The model is an idea. The spreadsheet is an implementation. Don't confuse the two.
You should be able to describe your model on paper or a slide or two. The spreadsheet as a working version of the model is necessarily more complicated. Having both allows anyone to verify that the model is working as intended.
"I can't explain it" is not the same as "You wouldn't understand it."
My late business attorney would have said the same thing. The act of building a business financial model includes questions about the specific business. You can have assumptions about expenses, but how you create revenue is likely highly unique. The balance between these items can only be constructed through conversations, not plugging numbers in a template.
He is refusing to share the financial model and requires to sit with the investor...? I understand that F2F is better when looking for investors. But this gives me the idea his documentation of the financial model is very poor or he is afraid people don't understand it (which indicates it can be improved).
I’m a seed stage VC. I give our founders the same advice as OP when raising their next round: If it’s more complicated than a basic pitch deck, walk through it with the VC, and optionally leave them a copy to play with.
Investors don’t have much time and can misconstrue stuff easily. When you walk through it, you get to answer questions in real-time and learn about any weaknesses they perceive in the modeling or the underlying biz.
a financial model is a document that you spend weeks creating, which is then ignored in the countless pitches you will do in front of VCs, possibly shared with other companies they already invested in.
Next time you want to make a financial model, instead of spending weeks making it try out Finmark (YC S20). We want to make creating a model turbotax easy without forcing people to use a template. Instead, our modular approach allows every company to create their own unique model in under an hour.
[+] [-] ArikBe|5 years ago|reply
This looks like a series on how to build a relatively straightforward operating model with a focus on cash balance and "founder value" (I guess that's attributable equity to the founder)
If you're interested in valuation, it's worth checking out Prof. Damodaran's work or an online resource such as Macabacus modeling guide: https://macabacus.com/operating-model/introduction
[+] [-] itslogotime|5 years ago|reply
Damodaran is good for understanding valuation - not necessarily financial modeling.
[+] [-] westurner|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tasuki|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] davidedicillo|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ramie|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lharries|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] paulryanrogers|5 years ago|reply
I do wonder how many of these 'signals' there are, and what weight they really carry for investors.
[+] [-] harha|5 years ago|reply
It’s not rocket science, it’s adding up a bunch of imaginary cash flows, explaining where they might come from should be the important bit.
[+] [-] JaakkoP|5 years ago|reply
There’s certainly still some preference towards Excel in 2020, but in no way using sheets will mean that you’re not “financially savvy.”
[+] [-] hutch120|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jd115|5 years ago|reply
It's just BAD advice to begin with.
What it signals is lack of tech savvy in the investors. It does not in any way shape or form signal any lack of financial savvy on the part of the founder.
If you're starting a tech company, do you REALLY want to work with an investor who can't open a cloud spreadsheet ffs?
[+] [-] nilsbunger|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rorykoehler|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rogerkirkness|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dasil003|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] justiceforsaas|5 years ago|reply
I've analyzed over 480 founder interviews (mostly for their acquisition channels [1]) and there's 1 adjective that defines their growth: "messy". They pitched a bunch of journalists, did a trial & error for 100s of ads on FB/Google, had search traffic after 6 months of trying (but 0 before that) and so on.
There's a sub-headline in the article that says "Why Should Founders Care about Building a Financial Model?"...I think a more important question is "WHEN"?
[1] https://firstpayingusers.com
[+] [-] nrp|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gamblor956|5 years ago|reply
Tech is the only market where you have the luxury to not know what your revenue model is, or even what your product is, for months or years after you have "launched."
Given the high rate of failure with tech startups, more financial modeling in the early stages would probably have resulted in more meaningful attempts at creating value, rather than the constant copycatting you currently see.
[+] [-] beagle3|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] corry|5 years ago|reply
My experience was that I have a much better command of the important levers in my business -- and can more easily scenario plan -- with a robust model that I built myself. Much easier to derive key metrics out of it too. And once you have a starting point, it's easy to iterate and expand it as the business grows.
My limited experience with the "financial model as a service" apps are that they make a bunch of assumptions for you and make it a lot harder to ad hoc plan. i.e. What if we delayed our hiring round of 5 headcount 2 months? What's the impact on ending cash balance? What's the impact if I move part of my ARR pricing into an up-front setup cost? What if we offer quarterly payments instead of annual pre-paid, and 30% of our clients opt for that (where does that leave cash)? etc. These are things that you could do in Excel in about 10 minutes with even a basic model, but would be challenging to do in another person's app.
IMO an early-stage SaaS startup's initial model should be focused on ARR/cash burn, looked at Monthly, with true planning cycles quarterly or maybe every 6-months if progress is more or less on plan.
I don't think I was asked in a single board meeting until $4M ARR or so about Revenue. ARR and cash are king.
[+] [-] baking|5 years ago|reply
You should be able to describe your model on paper or a slide or two. The spreadsheet as a working version of the model is necessarily more complicated. Having both allows anyone to verify that the model is working as intended.
"I can't explain it" is not the same as "You wouldn't understand it."
[+] [-] ChicagoDave|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TeeWEE|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nilsbunger|5 years ago|reply
Investors don’t have much time and can misconstrue stuff easily. When you walk through it, you get to answer questions in real-time and learn about any weaknesses they perceive in the modeling or the underlying biz.
Why wouldn’t you do it that way?
[+] [-] carterklein13|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] b20000|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ramie|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] monkeydust|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rapidlyinc|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ramie|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] einarvollset|5 years ago|reply