if we're back to normalish by spring next year I think that would be a great outcome, if the messaging to the public would be, buckle down until then I think lockdown complaince could go up
I think you're vastly overestimating our capacity to build enough vaccines and distribute them over the world, as well as dealing with those who will refuse to vaccinate.
Even if we had a vaccine ready for the roll-out today, I don't see us going back to normalish until late 2021 at earliest.
As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in. I feel like we're gonna have trouble reaching that amount for years to come.
Getting a working vaccine is only step 1 towards eradication path, not the end goal.
Pfizer is already mass producing their vaccine and are saying they’ll have 100 million doses available this year and are targeting 1.3 billion next year.
The US has five million people who tested positive and have recovered. Likely also another 30-50 million who were never tested because their symptoms were to minor. And another 66-165 million who have cross reactive T-cells.
Some researchers have concluded that the herd immunity threshold for sars-cov-2 could be as low as 10% or as high as 50%. I don’t think anyone sees it as high as 80%.
Given the low fatality rate for COVID, wouldn't you just want to concentrate vaccination on those most at risk? i.e. the elderly, people with underlying conditions etc.
You don't need to eradicate the virus, just stop it affecting the most vulnerable. Everybody else can then carry on as normal (albeit with a slight chance of getting a nasty flu-like illness).
As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in.
Wrong. The herd immunity threshold (HIT) for influenza is 33%-44%. HITs are different for every infectious disease. Current estimates for COVID-19 are 60-75%.
COVID is special though in that if it were only as deadly to the young as it were to everyone, I don't think we'd be referring to this as a pandemic.
Literally, right now we are seeing case rates explode, but the number of casualties is paradoxically very low because it's mostly the younger cohorts getting sick - which is probably a social function of things like 'back school' and 'risky behaviours' among younger groups.
If we could get everyone 50+ vaccinated, we may be largely safe - maybe not 'back to normal safe' - but the combination of 'partial herd immunity', 'much lower rates of hospitalization' etc. may mean we can 'kind of get back to normal'.
But notice, in the latter chart, that in the US the number of infections is predicted to peak in January and then start going down. It seems plausible that by March, we'll achieve some level of herd immunity, relative to the precautions that are currently being taken. We might have a situation like Europe over this pas summer, with small numbers of cases until a second spike in Fall/Winter 2021. That would buy us the spring and summer to roll out a vaccine.
Of course, I'm far from sure that this is what will happen -- but it certainly seems plausible to me.
None of the vaccines currently on the table are even remotely good enough for 'back to normalish.' The attack rate for this virus is so high that a vaccine good enough (i.e. multiple 9s effectiveness) to allow 'back to normal' almost certainly isn't possible.
The most we're going to get out of a vaccine is a tool that can be used in conjunction with physical distancing, and masks, to keep the infection rate and hospitalization rate sustainable.
Even with a vaccine, COVID-19 will remain one of the leading causes of death among the sick and elderly. The percentage of chronically ill people who live, and the percentage of people who make it past age 65, will plummet.
Everyone who's alive now will almost certainly need to socially distance (and should wear an N95/KN95 mask in public indoor spaces) for the rest of their lives.
It likely won't be available to everyone in the US until Autumn timeframe. Perhaps even later if the vaccine needs repeated dosages over time. Priority will be health care workers, essential retail, vulnerable etc.
By then it will kill at least a million people at the current trajectory. So US needs to start acting more aggressively now.
input_sh|5 years ago
Even if we had a vaccine ready for the roll-out today, I don't see us going back to normalish until late 2021 at earliest.
As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in. I feel like we're gonna have trouble reaching that amount for years to come.
Getting a working vaccine is only step 1 towards eradication path, not the end goal.
wang_li|5 years ago
The US has five million people who tested positive and have recovered. Likely also another 30-50 million who were never tested because their symptoms were to minor. And another 66-165 million who have cross reactive T-cells.
Some researchers have concluded that the herd immunity threshold for sars-cov-2 could be as low as 10% or as high as 50%. I don’t think anyone sees it as high as 80%.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563
breakfastduck|5 years ago
We're not going to eliminate the virus completely. That's a given, we should stop aiming for that.
If we get to a point where there's a stable number of daily deaths then we're good. (like we have for literally every single fatal illness.)
gadders|5 years ago
You don't need to eradicate the virus, just stop it affecting the most vulnerable. Everybody else can then carry on as normal (albeit with a slight chance of getting a nasty flu-like illness).
krona|5 years ago
Wrong. The herd immunity threshold (HIT) for influenza is 33%-44%. HITs are different for every infectious disease. Current estimates for COVID-19 are 60-75%.
jariel|5 years ago
Literally, right now we are seeing case rates explode, but the number of casualties is paradoxically very low because it's mostly the younger cohorts getting sick - which is probably a social function of things like 'back school' and 'risky behaviours' among younger groups.
If we could get everyone 50+ vaccinated, we may be largely safe - maybe not 'back to normal safe' - but the combination of 'partial herd immunity', 'much lower rates of hospitalization' etc. may mean we can 'kind of get back to normal'.
impendia|5 years ago
https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=infections-testin...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view...
But notice, in the latter chart, that in the US the number of infections is predicted to peak in January and then start going down. It seems plausible that by March, we'll achieve some level of herd immunity, relative to the precautions that are currently being taken. We might have a situation like Europe over this pas summer, with small numbers of cases until a second spike in Fall/Winter 2021. That would buy us the spring and summer to roll out a vaccine.
Of course, I'm far from sure that this is what will happen -- but it certainly seems plausible to me.
bleepblorp|5 years ago
The most we're going to get out of a vaccine is a tool that can be used in conjunction with physical distancing, and masks, to keep the infection rate and hospitalization rate sustainable.
Even with a vaccine, COVID-19 will remain one of the leading causes of death among the sick and elderly. The percentage of chronically ill people who live, and the percentage of people who make it past age 65, will plummet.
Everyone who's alive now will almost certainly need to socially distance (and should wear an N95/KN95 mask in public indoor spaces) for the rest of their lives.
What's happening now is humanity's normal.
unknown|5 years ago
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artursapek|5 years ago
What's there to deal with? Let people make that personal choice and leave them alone.
x87678r|5 years ago
Izkata|5 years ago
threeseed|5 years ago
By then it will kill at least a million people at the current trajectory. So US needs to start acting more aggressively now.
unknown|5 years ago
[deleted]
hobby-coder-guy|5 years ago
[deleted]
shotta|5 years ago
kuu|5 years ago
strictnein|5 years ago
numpad0|5 years ago