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US may not be back to normal until 2022, Fauci says

57 points| Bender | 5 years ago |lite.cnn.com

122 comments

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[+] Pfhreak|5 years ago|reply
Related, I'm curious how long y'all feel it will take for you to be comfortable with what was historically normal.

For example, riding a crowded bus or train, going to a concert, or even going shopping at a big box store seem totally bizarre to me right now. Even after the numbers come down I expect it will be some time before my brain isn't reflexively telling me to wear a mask and avoid crowds.

[+] sharken|5 years ago|reply
Not sure what kind of response you expect here, but I’m ready to go back to the old ways today.

Incidently, the way New York and Sweden have tackled the virus have been the most consistent. There was a large first wave, but no second wave (measured in deaths).

On the other end of the spectrum there are countries such as Poland with no initial first wave back in March. But it seems you can only go for so long before the virus turns up.

But it is very hard to do a good response on all counts when you have to do it for 18 months (time from first outbreak until virus is expected).

Links: Poland https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/

New York https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

Sweden https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[+] apozem|5 years ago|reply
My wife and I have been watching a ton of movies in quarantine and it feels genuinely weird to see images of the old world with huge crowds of unmasked people.
[+] oblio|5 years ago|reply
It's worse than that. Entire generations have had PTSD because of major events such as this one. For their entire lives.

Edit: How is this being downvoted? It's just the truth, the stress of isolation and the permanent health risk from a pandemic have real traumatic effects. Is anyone denying this?

[+] ls612|5 years ago|reply
I’d be comfortable doing anything I did in December 2019 today. People face wildly heterogeneous risks from this virus and should be allowed to respond accordingly. I’m young, healthy, and haven’t ever visited a nursing home (where 80% of the deaths in my state are) since 2002 when I was six years old. So my response to corona is basically “oh well”. Other people will be in different situations and should make decisions for themselves accordingly. But a one size fits all policy for a virus which varies 1000-fold in severity is nuts.
[+] sershe|5 years ago|reply
Personally I'm ready to do all of that right now, wearing a mask indoors (and already go to big box stores; concerts are not happening and I don't need to take transit given WFH). I do outdoor activities and it's crowded everywhere, as usual if not more... flying to Red Rocks to climb in a week or two ;)

The pandemic made me really grateful that I live in America, in fact... the freedoms and the culture of liberty is, most of the time, just an abstraction for someone as privileged and non-prominent as myself, but then you compare the way lockdowns are handled to my native Russia, with draconian and sometimes bizarre enforcement, as well as the stories from Europe, NZ, Australia, etc., and you realize how important both are. I feel the US, even the blue states, are very different in part because the officials realize the enforcement against individuals would cause massive backlash, and not hold up well in court if it came to that. Too bad they have businesses by the balls, so not everything is opened.

[+] xg15|5 years ago|reply
> I expect it will be some time before my brain isn't reflexively telling me to wear a mask and avoid crowds.

Then keep wearing a mask. In Asian countries this apparently became part of the general life style after SARS and with generally positive consequences from what you can read.

[+] peteretep|5 years ago|reply
I live in a country (Thailand) which went on full lockdown, and now has no local transmission. In Bangkok, everyone is still wearing masks when out and about, but nightclubs and restaurants have all re-opened without people being masked, and I've been on the islands for a few weeks where compliance is _much_ more lax and now it feels weird being back in Bangkok where masks are required again. In short: it got back to "normal" pretty quickly once people were no longer worried about transmission, in a country that took it much, much more seriously than Western countries at first -- and in many ways still is (it's veeeery hard to get into Thailand at the moment).
[+] tzs|5 years ago|reply
I'm hoping that we keep, at least in winter, the habit of mask wearing when in crowded places.

Just because colds and flu aren't likely to hospitalize me or cause any lasting damage doesn't mean I don't mind getting them. They still suck.

[+] david422|5 years ago|reply
I look out the window and sometimes I feel like a large chunk of the world already seems to be doing activities that are "back to normal". I've been in and still am in my own little bubble right now.
[+] ericmcer|5 years ago|reply
The same amount of time it took me to get used to wearing a mask? I imagine each experience of being around large groups and not getting sick will erode my fears.
[+] throwaway3699|5 years ago|reply
I would be happy tomorrow, my only concern is for the vulnerable which is why I'll put up with masks. But I don't care for them.
[+] marakv2|5 years ago|reply
Fairly normal for me as it's had to continue herne on Japan. More masks(permanent now), frequent sanitizer and hand washing is part of the norm now.

I (and other teachers I have spoken with over here) am quite comfortable wearing a mask all the time now. Took a bit to get useto though.

[+] claudeganon|5 years ago|reply
Wearing a mask to avoid contracting or spreading illness, to avoid air pollution, or just because you don’t feel like shaving or putting on makeup is common across all of Southeast Asia. If Americans adopted this incredibly rational practice, it would be great for everyone.
[+] conductr|5 years ago|reply
I feel pretty comfortable now. My personal risk profile is low. Most of my limitations are due to trying to be a good member of society. That said, I Probably only feel fully comfortable once I get COVID and recover. I know reoccurrence is possible but seems edge.
[+] brundolf|5 years ago|reply
For ~6 months we were hardcore; no going anywhere around people unless absolutely necessary. Masks anytime people would be within 10ft. Spend as little time indoors (outside of the house) as possible. No visiting friends, no visiting family, nothing.

Recently we've started to very slowly relax things. It's become clear that surfaces aren't really a transmission vector, for one, and that generally if you're outside (or in a well-filtered space) and people use masks you're probably fine. We went to the botanical gardens last weekend. My partner's friends are having a back yard (masked) movie night that we may go to. We're contemplating going to my parents' house for Christmas if we can get everyone to hardcore-quarantine in the weeks leading up to it.

I'm normally an introverted person, but even just the thought of some of these allowances has lifted my spirit dramatically.

But no: despite all that I have no intention of sitting down for a meal at a restaurant anytime soon, much less going to a big box store when I could simply order a delivery. The risk/reward just doesn't work out there until there's a vaccine and it works.

[+] sk2020|5 years ago|reply
I’m not bothered by it now. The IFR for me is around 3x10-5. I live in a city in the top 10 of per-capita homicide rates in the country. Just living here is more dangerous than SARS. The risk of getting thrush from my mask also bothers me.

The mask pressure will be a lot less after the election, so I wouldn’t worry.

[+] tomjen3|5 years ago|reply
I don't think I will ever be comfortable shaking hands with strangers.
[+] bradlys|5 years ago|reply
Honestly - without a vaccine - I'll never be comfortable again. If I happenstance get covid, recover with no damage, develop immunity, and can't pass it onto others - I'd feel fine.

One of the big reasons is that I do a lot of social dancing. Washing your hands and what not isn't sufficient there. You're getting full body contact with a lot of heavy breathing. Sadly - I think social dancing will be dead for the next few years because this. Might be fine - it'll probably get a lot of the weirdos out of the scene.

[+] nradov|5 years ago|reply
I am comfortable right now. I never stopped being uncomfortable with those things because for me personally the risk is miniscule. I can understand how others in high risk groups are concerned, but the reality is that the baseline danger level going forward is always going to be a little higher than in was in 2019. Not even a vaccine will change that reality so we're eventually going to have to get over our fears.
[+] asdff|5 years ago|reply
If I'm vaccinated I'm going right back to what I was doing before. I don't care if the train is sardines again if I'm immune. Everything hinges on vaccination. I'm pretty confident my employer will innoculate me not long after the vaccine is available, probably months before the general public.
[+] rtx|5 years ago|reply
I am fortunate enough to wait out anther year, I hope herd immunity would have kicked in by then. Not sure about these rushed vaccines will wait for six months after they are released.
[+] CodeWriter23|5 years ago|reply
I’m ready to go right now. We know a lot more about this disease than we did 8 months ago. First and foremost, the strong correlation between severe illness and Vitamin D deficiency, now demonstrated in numerous cohort studies in multiple nations. Combine that with the blood antibody program and we’re actually more prepared for handling this virus than the seasonal flu.
[+] tboyd47|5 years ago|reply
I was done being scared of the virus in April when I saw all the lies and scams piling up. I've been back to normal life as much as possible. Most of my family and friends are the same way. That includes some who are over 60 years old. On the list of things I worry about, coronavirus is not even on the top 10. As soon as the restrictions are lifted, I will return to every normal activity.

I still obey the law, and I wear a mask around others who feel fear, because I respect them as people and want them to feel comfortable around me. I understand that some people feel hatred or resentment towards me because of my lack of fear of coronavirus, but I do not reciprocate their feelings.

[+] danschumann|5 years ago|reply
It's a virus, of which we have cured maybe 2 in history, last I checked. There have been viruses chronically infecting people for many years. So, we could be looking at 30+ years of covid, unless it puts enough impetus on us to cure it, and perhaps more virii.

However, if not, perhaps we do treatments, to make survival rate high enough so no one worries, but is merely wary to get checked. Or, perhaps we have 30 years where even if a single person gets it, the whole community needs to shut down for weeks, and people become suspicious and grow animus toward neighbors, being spiteful and lashing out more frequently, through rudeness or worse. Or, there's Sweden's route, which I'm kind of envious now. I'm surprised I haven't seen more countries jump in with both feet. What other options am I missing? Or which of these would you strike?

[+] 0xB31B1B|5 years ago|reply
we have vacines for lots of viral illnesses. Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Polio rank among the most notable. For a complete list see here: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vaccines-list.html

We are looking at 30 years of covid insofar as we are looking at 30 years of Measles, 30 years of Polio, or 30 years of Cholera. The point is, if you get your vaccinations, you can live a "normal" life and worry about catching covid as much as you worry about catching measles.

[+] cassalian|5 years ago|reply
I'm not necessarily advocating to remove the lock downs and instead simply throwing our hands up and going "oh well!", but I can't help but wonder whether there is something better than the current system. I hate this virus, I hate what it's done to the world, I hate that I'm completely powerless to do anything about it. Instead, I'm left with a chorus of desperate screams where my thoughts once were, with no one to listen and no prospect of change anytime soon.

There has to be a better solution than this, doesn't there?

[+] xnx|5 years ago|reply
"Normal" is a terrible word to describe any future state. Many things have changed that won't go back to the way they were before ever (and that's entirely a bad thing): more working remotely, more grocery delivery, less retail shopping, etc.
[+] ulfw|5 years ago|reply
"ever" is a terrible word to describe the future state. No one knows what's going to be 10 or 100 years from now.
[+] 0xffff2|5 years ago|reply
I think you're missing a "not" in that parenthetical. Or you really miss going to the office and going grocery shopping?
[+] ulisesrmzroche|5 years ago|reply
I think the only way to get universal mask use is to do away with social distancing. Open everything up but mandate masks. Otherwise, pandemic fatigue will demoralize people and the majority won’t comply. This second lockdown is already meeting extreme resistance
[+] Hokusai|5 years ago|reply
> Although 44 vaccines have made it to clinical trials, it might not be clear which works best -- or if any work at all -- until they have been authorized and distributed to many people, a team of experts said Tuesday.

This is so different from Hollywood but so similar on how as as software engineer I solve problems. For complex problems, you find a few reasonable solution and you try them out. As you find that one is not feasible or too costly, you move to the next.

> Until a vaccine is available, experts say social distancing, wearing masks and staying in your select bubble of people are crucial to helping quash this pandemic.

I cannot imagine how live is going to be to 13-14 years olds that will live their most formative years in this situation. The world would go back to normal, we will forget about the pandemic, but for a few people it may always feel that is not how they grew up.

[+] roywiggins|5 years ago|reply
The main reason why we won't know which vaccine works best is because they're being tested in separate studies against placebos, rather than in combined studies against each other. This is partly by design, because getting the various pharma companies to actually work with each other was deemed infeasible.
[+] vaccinator|5 years ago|reply
He is being optimist or he is talking about the new normal.
[+] sschueller|5 years ago|reply
How long did the pandemic of 1918 last? More than one year? We didn't do/know much in those days and it went away on its own but of course with a lot of dead people.
[+] cpr|5 years ago|reply
Reading all these comments, I'm reminded of people who've undergone serious brainwashing. No snark intended--look.
[+] oregontechninja|5 years ago|reply
I pushed my wedding back to 2021 already, at this point we're probably just going to cut our losses and invest in a house or something. The fact that so many Americans are willing to pick up a gun and lay down their life for this country, but wouldn't wear a simple mask for that very same country is shameful.
[+] WhompingWindows|5 years ago|reply
Based on the Dr. Christakis interview with Sam Harris, we won't be back to truly normal until 2024. Vaccines won't be widely taken until the end of 2022, 2023 will be a sobering up phase where people aren't quite used to social gatherings again. By 2024 election, we'll finally be having big rallies and big concerts again.
[+] ehvatum|5 years ago|reply
By that time, there may even be another threat that proves far more deadly, particularly to young people. For example, car accidents.
[+] cybwraith|5 years ago|reply
If all COVID19 related treatments and on-going care were covered under a form of universal health care in the US, I'd be willing to participate in the larger economy and pick up my daily routines again. Those who are high risk or older would need to exercise caution to limit exposure of course and universal masks would still be a good idea, but I do feel like things could largely get chugging again. At some point the isolated living just isn't viable or worth living anymore.

However the risk of financial ruin to any given individual or family from a 3 week COVID stay in the hospital, even if you survive without complications, is just too great a risk to "go back to normal". In the US such a stay likely means you end up unemployed and facing massive surprise bills from out of network "contractor" doctors, coinsurance, etc. It was already bad before, but the economy (the "real" economy) really wouldn't survive the obscene amounts of medical bill bankruptcies.

[+] briefcomment|5 years ago|reply
Is there a reason why Fauci has been in charge for so long, and that leadership doesn’t cycle? He doesn’t seem particularly impressive or accurate. I don’t see why public health needs a face. Just give us the most recent science, admit when you are wrong, and most importantly admit how confident you are with your predictions.