[phizy]

>In 40 generations of space colonization, that's 40 times 30,000 times however long it takes to rebuild the capability on each colony.

Assuming each generation survives. Stop making that assumption, and see how many ways there are for you to reach a similarly empty universe.

>It's not optimism; its simple observation of what we have already on Earth in existing life forms.

I wish you'd observe that none of Earth's lifeforms have colonies on other planets. Goldfish didn't colonize other worlds, is that then a strong argument that Goldfish don't exist?

What you're saying makes no sense: just because animals can colonize a single planet over many generations does not mean they will be able to colonize an entire galaxy in even less time.

[m4rtink]

>I wish you'd observe that none of Earth's lifeforms have colonies on other planets. Goldfish didn't colonize other worlds, is that then a strong argument that Goldfish don't exist?

I would not be so sure about dolphins. ;-)

[JoeAltmaier]

Again, not true. Geometric growth can't be dismissed. Even if 90% didn't survive, it just takes (a little) longer.

[phizy]

How the hell is a 10% survival rate "not optimism?" Try a trillionth of a percent. It makes an astronomical time difference.