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tr352 | 5 years ago
But for subjective belief they're still useful. Consider the problem of diagnosing a system with components that fail in rare cases. However we have no idea about failure probabilities. We can then use ranks. A diagnosis for some observed behaviour would then be the least surprising (i.e., lowest ranked) failure state that explains the observed behaviour. This is also the reason for least-surprising-first execution: the most important prediction or hypothesis is the most likely one and thus the least surprising one. There are some concrete examples in the paper which demonstrate this.
I am currently thinking about combining probabilities with ranks so that you can reason about both kinds of uncertainty in the same model. This could be implemented using a programming language that supports both ranked choice statements and probabilistic choice statements.
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