Does it make any sense at all to project 100 years into the future? Like Nigeria, do you really keep growing from 150 to 750 million people in a linear fashion?
The chart sort of makes sense based on my limited knowledge on population growth, but two things pop out at me.
1) Can the US really continue to expect such growth over the next 100 years? I was under the impression that the fertility rate of the united states was below replacement levels (perhaps near 2?), and that the immigrant population makes up the difference to bring our fertility rate above replacement levels (ie growth). With many states bringing in anti-immigration bills, I could see this possibly hurting US population growth.
2) Why does Brazil have an odd inflection point near 2050?
As to the main topic regarding Africa's population. I can't help but wonder if a more natural solution will find itself. With some many countries predicted to have a declining population, I can't help but think immigration will be the solution to fill the probable labor shortages caused by declining populations in nearby countries (China, India, Russia, according to the graph).
Apparently they made the graph by taking estimates for 2050 and 2010 and connecting the dots. Hence, the odd inflection points for Brazil, India and China. Note also the big caveat:
Such forecasts need to be taken with a bucketload of salt: tiny shifts in today’s birth rate extrapolated over 90 years produce huge changes.
I guess most of the countries depicted in the graph won't exist in the same form in 2100. I also wonder if it's possible to have another 90 years without a nuclear bomb attack somewhere.
[+] [-] Tichy|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] angstrom|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] harshpotatoes|15 years ago|reply
1) Can the US really continue to expect such growth over the next 100 years? I was under the impression that the fertility rate of the united states was below replacement levels (perhaps near 2?), and that the immigrant population makes up the difference to bring our fertility rate above replacement levels (ie growth). With many states bringing in anti-immigration bills, I could see this possibly hurting US population growth.
2) Why does Brazil have an odd inflection point near 2050?
As to the main topic regarding Africa's population. I can't help but wonder if a more natural solution will find itself. With some many countries predicted to have a declining population, I can't help but think immigration will be the solution to fill the probable labor shortages caused by declining populations in nearby countries (China, India, Russia, according to the graph).
[+] [-] nandemo|15 years ago|reply
Such forecasts need to be taken with a bucketload of salt: tiny shifts in today’s birth rate extrapolated over 90 years produce huge changes.
I guess most of the countries depicted in the graph won't exist in the same form in 2100. I also wonder if it's possible to have another 90 years without a nuclear bomb attack somewhere.
[+] [-] checker|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] flashingleds|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tybris|15 years ago|reply