[gerbal]

It really depends on vaccination rates and the transmission rates of vaccinated people. Vaccines aren't going to reach mass distribution until February or March at the earliest. It's an open question just how much vaccination reduces low-level infection and retransmission. The published vaccine trials have been focused on incidence of symptoms and reduction in mortality in the vaccinated group.

It remains possible that the death rate may climb among the unvaccinated if others' vaccinations is used as an excuse for risky behavior.

[0xffff2]

>Also vaccinated people can still catch and transmit covid, though they are not going to experience severe symptoms.

This is stated with far too much confidence. It may be true that vaccinated individuals can still transmit COVID. It may also be true that they can't. We don't know yet.

[MaxDPS]

Isn’t this a fact though (just not in the way OP meant)? The current vaccines have a ~90% success rate. That means that 1/10 people might still get COVID-19 and possibly transmit it.

[gerbal]

You are correct, I've edited my comment to be appropriately hedged