[benjaminl]

That US oil self sufficiency means that it will get out of the Middle East is a key part of Peter Zeihan’s Disunited Nations. His premise is that the US will disengage from the world no matter who won the election and that will have far reaching ramifications for the world.

A major reason of the ability for the US to do this is energy self sufficiency.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0062913689/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_imm...

[gumby]

This completely ignores the economics of commodity pricing. Oil is the ultimate commodity so the price of a barrel of a particular grade of crude is essentially the same around the globe. Thus if demand outside the US drives prices up, US suppliers will export instead of selling domestically until prices equilabrate. Thus the US protects oil shipping from Saudi to China in order to improve the stability of US prices (and to reduce the incentive for China to expand its military reserve in the Gulf — which has expanded over the last 2-3 years as the us has signaled its intent to pull back.

In fact the US is “net” self sufficient: the same issues (plus differing grades and the geography of shipping) cause the US to simultaneously import and export. Driving actual imports to zero would be more expensive.

Finally, fracking appears to “spoil” the wells: cheaper and faster but in the end you get less of the reserve than you could more conventionally. I say “appears” as this analysis has only surfaced recently (though I believe the big frackers knew this already)

[njarboe]

"Finally, fracking appears to “spoil” the wells: cheaper and faster but in the end you get less of the reserve than you could more conventionally. I say “appears” as this analysis has only surfaced recently (though I believe the big frackers knew this already)"

This is incorrect. The oil that comes from fracking wells are stuck in the rocks because they have poor porosity. Conventionally this oil is not extractable on human timescales (less than millions of years).

I welcome citations to the contrary to update my geologic knowledge (PhD in Earth Science, 2010)

[martinpw]

A counter-argument:

The military presence to protect oil supplies is not just to protect US supplies. Even before self sufficiency, the US did not import much oil from the middle east - 5x more came from Canada than all the Persian Gulf for example: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727

The reason is to protect world supplies, not just US supplies. A cutoff in gulf supplies would have a huge impact on world oil prices and hence economies, and would also impact US oil prices since oil is a (mostly) fungible commodity. So there are still self-interest reasons to maintain a presence even if the country is self sufficient in oil.