I think the problem with this argument is that our observations are pre-selected before see them. This biases our predictions towards spectacular success/failure stories and exaggerated anecdotes. What would have happened if you were Facebook and thought, "we know social networking startups end in failure, and so we should try something else".
I'm not sure Facebook thought that in 2004. Besides, it's all relative. Some people reading this will think, "Gym? Bring it on!!" Obviously, a successful path would somehow diverge from previous failures.
Also, I think the article is more about addiction to HN and not so much startup advice.
[+] [-] faitswulff|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bradpineau|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lazyjeff|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bricestacey|15 years ago|reply
Also, I think the article is more about addiction to HN and not so much startup advice.