[zermelo]

what's the counterfactual? How can you tell the difference between "criminals are undeterred by prison and will commit offenses no matter what" and "prison hardens criminals and does not help with their reinsertion"?

[endominus]

You can test that by looking at data from countries with less abusive prison systems. IIRC, they typically have much lower recidivism rates.

[SV_BubbleTime]

That 100% ignores cultural, education, diversity, and tons of other issues.

Yea, I bet recidivism is low in Norway, who also has a very small chapter of MS13 or whatever gang you like, coincidentally.

I disagree you can look to some other country and make a fair comparison. The only way to do it would be to look at rates before and after some policy change.