top | item 25652970

(no title)

defertoreptar | 5 years ago

Here is an image that plots the effective capital gains rate from the 1950s to recent years: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_Uni...

Let's analyze three periods:

1953-1985: no significant trend in effective capital gains tax

1985-1996: upward trend and higher capital gains tax

1996-2020: downward trend

Now let's compare those periods to real median family income (which tracks to 1953). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N

Annualized growth in real median income:

1953-1985: 1.8%

1985-1996: 0.8%

1996-2020: 2.0%

Real median income growth during lower capital gains tax policy was twice that of the period of higher capital gains tax policy.

discuss

order

dragonwriter|5 years ago

Your choice of a thirty-two year period, and 11 year period, and a 24 year period, when the unequal periods aren't supported by some kind of consistent in-period patterns in the conjectured independent variable, plus using fuzzy subjective descriptors for the independent variable, suggest a breathtaking degree of cherry picking and desired-results-driving-methodology, here.

defertoreptar|5 years ago

They are unequal periods, and that's why we annualize the growth.

The periods aren't "cherry-picked." If you'd actually look at the plotted effective capital gains rate, you'd see a clear difference in tax policy in those three periods.

The "fuzzy subjective descriptors" are totally in line with the parent poster's: "long term tax policy."