My sense is that there is so much pressure in the weather industry to get ad clicks/revenue that it seems that they make speculative events seem more likely and more dramatic. The amount of snow storms that are going to be heavy snow and dangerous condition have been overblown to the point that I don’t believe them until after the snow is down. I recognize the aspect of public safety element of calling storms though there is significant risk of crying wolf. I would never have considered myself someone who would fall into that category but the poor level of accuracy has forced me in that route. I’m suspect of this very dramatic prediction coming through.
For the record I track weather for a multitude of sports are dependent on specific aspects so am close to the forecasting nature.
It snowed heavily in Madrid a couple of days ago for the first time in decades, causing utter chaos. It's around 5C colder than the usual seasonal average where I am.
My sense - and the sense of many working in climate science and media monitoring - is that there's a climate change denial industry [1] which is working very hard to lie about the catastrophic effects of developing climate change, and also to shift blame away from those responsible for causing them.
I have a different take on this, I suspect the problem is not necessarily self-serving ad clicks and revenue. I think there's pressure within the scientific community to come up with concrete and tangible threats linked to global warming.
Otherwise all you have is stuff like "global temperatures are going to rise by n degrees over the course of the century" with n being a relatively low number for us humans used to local weather having much greater temperature swings. Sure, if we're educated we can understand why this is a huge problem, but for people who don't want to hear this (and may benefit in the short term from not hearing it) "the weather is going to be 5 degrees hotter in a century" doesn't sound all that bad.
So in order to cut through some scientists look for more dramatic events that could come as a consequence of this. The problem of course is that the climate is wild and hard to predict over large timescales and sometimes they're wrong, and then the climate change deniers use that as evidence that they're lying.
Is there not a government run forecasting service where you are? In the UK the Met office is the only source of whether information I will trust. The rest is click bait.
100% this. Weather has gone the way of news: sensationalized for clicks. The volume of 'severe weather' risks that turn out as nothing-burgers in the past 5 years is staggering (Southern Ontario, both winter and summer).
The thing that struck me with the headline was the use of "arctic hounds" as an unnecessary metaphor (to help sensationalize). Now, with your comment, it maybe just seems all too fitting. Metametaphor.
> weather industry to get ad clicks/revenue that it seems that they make speculative events seem more likely and more dramatic.
Which is sad, because there shouldn't even be a "weather industry". NOAA / National Weather Service gives away a free weather report to every American for nearly every place in the entire US. There shouldn't be a reliable way to "overhype" weather.
> I’m suspect of this very dramatic prediction coming through.
What very dramatic prediction ?
The 'collapsed' arctic vortex, like in 2004 and 2013, might or might not result in the "Beast from the East" in Europe, and its USA equivalent – too soon to tell.
As for snow, Spain already had quite exceptional snow.
The warm period in December has a word in Norwegian: kakelinna, traditionally thought to be caused by excessive baking before Christmas. https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakelinna
I'm not sure how common this warm mid-winter period is in general but I've certainly noticed it in the 15 years I've lived in the UK and it must have been common in Greece in the past also. In recent years, also, but Greek winters in modern times tend to be very mild anyway. Nothing like in Norawy, I'm sure :)
I just hope this means more snow in Southeast Michigan. Something like a few days of 2" per day, then a decent dusting every night, would be excellent. With many of us looking for nice outdoor activities during COVID times, thus far it's been an awful winter.
We got a bit of snow, then some rain, and all the packed snow on trails and paths where people walk, hike, run, and bike have become sheets of ice. Snow is great for outdoor winter stuff, but ice is really hard to deal with.
I'm curious to see what happens, but so far this winter has been _mild_ to say the least. Current forecast calls for 40+ on Wednesday and Thursday which is very-not-January-like.
A good snow would totally be fun, though. I just got new boots, too!
Hopefully it means more snow in Utah. It's been very dry this year, which means summer will be very dry and hot since there won't be much mountain melt run-off.
I'll pray to the weather gods to send whatever snow would have come to the Puget Sound region of Washington your way.
Snow here sucks, for 4 reasons.
1. More than a couple inches on the ground is rare enough that cities and counties do not have a lot of snow clearing equipment. So when we get one the rare incidents of a foot or more on the ground, it takes forever for the streets to be cleared.
2. Most people aren't familiar with driving on snow, so even when the roads are passable it sucks.
3. People are idiots. As a columnist in the Seattle Times once put it, they will be at the top of a steep hill, have just watched 20 other cars try to make it down and lose control, and think "I've got a Subaru Forester so I'll be fine" and become car #21 in the heap at the bottom.
4. The ground here is relatively warm during the winter. It quickly melts the first layer of snow, which then refreezes as smooth ice sheet when subsequent layers of snow pile up. So where places with cold ground have snow with road underneath, we get snow with an ice sheet underneath between it and the road. We end up with roads that are technically more challenging to drive on, which makes #2 even worse.
Hi neighbor. Hoping for the same thing too! Detroit is probably the worst place to live in all of Michigan if you are someone who enjoys nature and being outside. I’m in the Woodward corridor and can’t wait to get out west into the woods.
This kind of article has caused my father, who hasnt seen any snow this winter so far, to buy two new snow shovels for my grandmother (who has not seen any ground snow either and already has a dedicated snow shovel and a plower). When I asked 'why', he told me he read of a 'professional' snow shoveler who has multiple shovels for different types of snow. Meanwhile, in my area we are snow coverred for two weeks now (pretty standard around here) and pretty much everyone in the neighboorhood has a single shovel and a vanilla broom for the task.
Yeah, we have seen the pictures from Madrid but come-on, you dont have to prepare like its gonna be 6 feet of snow tomorrow.
The next decade is going to be wild. We will start to really see the effects of climate change. Real consequences for every day lives in the western world.
I understand your sentiment, but most westerner’s everyday lives will not be affected by climate change this decade, outside of government initiatives to help solve the problem. That’s why it’s so damn unfair: it’s the poorest people in the world that will bear the early burden.
It’s my opinion that if we give people in the west unrealistic timelines, it will only serve to undermine the political effort to solve the issues for the long term.
as an environmentalist, we've been saying this since the 70's. As an educator I'd caution against fear as a motivation for societal change, but I understand that many think that its good to cause fear and panic for the benefit of the globe and everyone on it (after all, we teach children to be afraid of dangerous things).
I like that they added a lot of plots. They basically explained the plots. The plots are interesting to read. I haven't looked at this kind of climate info for a long time so I like reading this kind of thing from time to time.
Putting aside how good the actual predictions are, I really enjoyed how this was written. It explained things in a manner that I could understand, and I don't have meteorological knowledge beyond what I could glean off a weather forecast.
If you just moved to a northern climate and have been saying this isn't that bad, then this is a bit of a wake-up call to make sure you are ready for winter. I still do recommend that you keep one of those shiny silver mylar survival blankets in your car. It works not only for warmth but also to put outside the car if you are off road and need to be spotted. Keep a week's worth of good at home that doesn't need electricity to prepare. Power outages in extreme cold are a pain.
20 screen pages to say it's expected to snow in January. /smartass
Actually a decent explanation of what "polar vortex" means and a good illustration of how it causes winter weather. Without even "and this means the end of humanity tomorrow!" hype.
Checked this site out on mobile: tons of ads, pop up video ad, super ugly distracting ads too. Can anyone here suggest a way to adblock for chrome on android?
The Brave browser for Android is chrome-based and blocks ads by default. There is some controversy here on HN around Brave for other reasons, but I found that it works well for this purpose.
This is great. People who don't trust experts and cynically think that everything is political can readily say "It's really cold! See, global warming and climate change are fake!" Here we see that the polar vortex isn't extra-strong this year, it's extra-week, and the breakdown may send chunks of it southward.
This armchair level of understanding (even if my summary is not right on the nose) is what we need when we encounter people who actually want to politicize the weather. Will we defeat ignorance, or will ignorance defeat us?
People talking about how they are looking forward to warm weather: you are selfish ghouls. People are already dying from refugee and crop failure situations around the world.
[+] [-] boringg|5 years ago|reply
For the record I track weather for a multitude of sports are dependent on specific aspects so am close to the forecasting nature.
[+] [-] TheOtherHobbes|5 years ago|reply
My sense - and the sense of many working in climate science and media monitoring - is that there's a climate change denial industry [1] which is working very hard to lie about the catastrophic effects of developing climate change, and also to shift blame away from those responsible for causing them.
[1] https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-1259-9_...
[+] [-] simias|5 years ago|reply
Otherwise all you have is stuff like "global temperatures are going to rise by n degrees over the course of the century" with n being a relatively low number for us humans used to local weather having much greater temperature swings. Sure, if we're educated we can understand why this is a huge problem, but for people who don't want to hear this (and may benefit in the short term from not hearing it) "the weather is going to be 5 degrees hotter in a century" doesn't sound all that bad.
So in order to cut through some scientists look for more dramatic events that could come as a consequence of this. The problem of course is that the climate is wild and hard to predict over large timescales and sometimes they're wrong, and then the climate change deniers use that as evidence that they're lying.
[+] [-] bb123|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DeBraid|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] interestica|5 years ago|reply
The thing that struck me with the headline was the use of "arctic hounds" as an unnecessary metaphor (to help sensationalize). Now, with your comment, it maybe just seems all too fitting. Metametaphor.
[+] [-] maxsilver|5 years ago|reply
Which is sad, because there shouldn't even be a "weather industry". NOAA / National Weather Service gives away a free weather report to every American for nearly every place in the entire US. There shouldn't be a reliable way to "overhype" weather.
[+] [-] heliodor|5 years ago|reply
Or my favorite: "bomb cyclone"
[+] [-] BlueTemplar|5 years ago|reply
What very dramatic prediction ?
The 'collapsed' arctic vortex, like in 2004 and 2013, might or might not result in the "Beast from the East" in Europe, and its USA equivalent – too soon to tell.
As for snow, Spain already had quite exceptional snow.
[+] [-] smoyer|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] JackFr|5 years ago|reply
Fewer cool graphics but much more understandable article.
[+] [-] wiz21c|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] reddotX|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Learning2-2|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] YeGoblynQueenne|5 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcyone_and_Ceyx
The phrase "halcyon days" seems to be used in English also for the warm days in the middle of winter:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/halcyon_days
I'm not sure how common this warm mid-winter period is in general but I've certainly noticed it in the 15 years I've lived in the UK and it must have been common in Greece in the past also. In recent years, also, but Greek winters in modern times tend to be very mild anyway. Nothing like in Norawy, I'm sure :)
[+] [-] djxfade|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] c0nsumer|5 years ago|reply
We got a bit of snow, then some rain, and all the packed snow on trails and paths where people walk, hike, run, and bike have become sheets of ice. Snow is great for outdoor winter stuff, but ice is really hard to deal with.
[+] [-] dangoor|5 years ago|reply
A good snow would totally be fun, though. I just got new boots, too!
[+] [-] swsieber|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tzs|5 years ago|reply
Snow here sucks, for 4 reasons.
1. More than a couple inches on the ground is rare enough that cities and counties do not have a lot of snow clearing equipment. So when we get one the rare incidents of a foot or more on the ground, it takes forever for the streets to be cleared.
2. Most people aren't familiar with driving on snow, so even when the roads are passable it sucks.
3. People are idiots. As a columnist in the Seattle Times once put it, they will be at the top of a steep hill, have just watched 20 other cars try to make it down and lose control, and think "I've got a Subaru Forester so I'll be fine" and become car #21 in the heap at the bottom.
4. The ground here is relatively warm during the winter. It quickly melts the first layer of snow, which then refreezes as smooth ice sheet when subsequent layers of snow pile up. So where places with cold ground have snow with road underneath, we get snow with an ice sheet underneath between it and the road. We end up with roads that are technically more challenging to drive on, which makes #2 even worse.
[+] [-] whalesalad|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MikeKusold|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] patall|5 years ago|reply
Yeah, we have seen the pictures from Madrid but come-on, you dont have to prepare like its gonna be 6 feet of snow tomorrow.
[+] [-] AlexanderDhoore|5 years ago|reply
Prepare for erratic weather. Storm's coming.
[+] [-] hyko|5 years ago|reply
It’s my opinion that if we give people in the west unrealistic timelines, it will only serve to undermine the political effort to solve the issues for the long term.
[+] [-] chippy|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] refurb|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] NewHereBeNice|5 years ago|reply
The timeline for severe consequential effects of climate change are a hundred years away.
Your hysteria only damages the climate change cause, because in 10 years time people will use proclamations such as yours to deny climate science.
[+] [-] bamboozled|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sam_goody|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 2ion|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 0df8dkdf|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tomlong|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nickpp|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MaslowsPyramid|5 years ago|reply
1: https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/sci-tech/face-numbingly-cold-w...
[+] [-] raverbashing|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] protomyth|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] h2odragon|5 years ago|reply
Actually a decent explanation of what "polar vortex" means and a good illustration of how it causes winter weather. Without even "and this means the end of humanity tomorrow!" hype.
[+] [-] Dumblydorr|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mFixman|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wcoenen|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] braindongle|5 years ago|reply
This armchair level of understanding (even if my summary is not right on the nose) is what we need when we encounter people who actually want to politicize the weather. Will we defeat ignorance, or will ignorance defeat us?
[+] [-] Havoc|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] vsupalov|5 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] mradmin|5 years ago|reply