[jeromec]

So, if I understand you correctly, you're suggesting that before Warren Buffet was even born, he was destined to become the successful investor we know? Further, that he shouldn't take any credit for thinking through all his decisions and coming up with the more profitable choice enough to substantially beat out millions of other investors?

To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability, because, in the absence of cheating, the person's actions and decisions don't influence the outcome. All participants have an exactly equal chance at being the end winner, and nothing will change that. However, some savvy investors, like Warren Buffet, are able to ensure they win over others using the stock market; the difference being that their decision making does directly influence whether they "win" or "lose".

It seems to me you're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means, since they don't know what they are doing anyway. Correct?

[vannevar]

I said nothing about pre-destination, and Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes. I'm supporting the gist of the article, which is that complex phenomena like economic systems are much more like coin flipping than they are like dropping an object and predicting it will hit the ground. Contrary to what you say, the coin-flipper's actions and decisions do influence the outcome: he has to decide to keep playing, and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails. The difference is that the system is comparatively simple, so we easily see that chance alone determines the outcome. Barring cheating or a systematically biased coin, we can't imagine how it could be anything other than luck. On the other hand, investments are wrapped in much more complexity, and it's easier to imagine that there are skills that could confer an advantage, even if there aren't.

[Y]ou're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means...

I'm not suggesting it, but now that you mention it there are some studies that do. I suspect there are real investment skills that can be learned and applied, much the same way a blackjack card counter gains a small edge that can be exploited over time.

[jeromec]

Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes

Let me rephrase the question: Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success?

he has to decide to keep playing

You said "in the end" which I took to mean the coin flipping would continue until only one winner remained of the 1000.

and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails

To ensure we are imagining the same crucial parameters let me clarify these points: first, the coin itself is not biased in any way; second, the flipping action is not biased; it could be carried out by a mechanized flipper, for example; third, the choice of heads or tails is always made before the flip. Under these circumstances the actual calling of heads or tails does not matter. The caller will always have exactly a 50% chance of winning and losing.

I suspect there are real investment skills that can be learned and applied, much the same way a blackjack card counter gains a small edge that can be exploited over time

Well, that's the first thing you've said I can easily agree with. Yes, I certainly believe, given enough time, Warren Buffet could teach someone to follow his methodology to have nearly identical success. So which is it? Is Warren Buffet someone who knows what he's doing or not?