At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.
I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics.
That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine
It's not clear yet if arm injected vaccines will provide mucosal immunity. They'll prevent serious disease but epithelial cells in the nose, mouth, and so on can still be infected and shed virus. It's the same for flu vaccines. There are nasal vaccines which do provide mucosal immunity like flumist but during heavy flu seasons only the old and young have access.
So, even if you're the required 2 months post vaccinated you probably shouldn't stop wearing a mask or social distancing until 100% of the population around you has either also been vaccinated or been infected and recovered.
When will the entire population be vaccinated or already infected? At current rates it may be a year or two.
When children are vaccinated. It's not clear if the vaccine confers sterilizing immunity, i.e., you are protected against the bug and also can't spread the disease, so most people who have children or are around children will ideally not take undue risks.
I'm not sure if under-16 cohorts' trials are underway already. If they are, and if children are going to be vaccinated before their next school term starts, then society as a whole may consider dropping the current precautions.
By Springtime (in 45-60 days) we'll be at the one year mark, fatigued by masks, rules, shutdowns, and authoritarians, in general. The news will be tedious about how many are being vaccinated (it will be a lot) -- and, the weather will turn warmer.
Then, many/most will say _fuck it_, I'm taking my life back. I'm visualizing that day, and will welcome it.
I don’t think it matters if 100% is vaccinated. What matters is new cases and deaths. As long as those are steady or going up we’re going to be masking and social distancing until the end of time. Once it goes down and stays down, that’s when gradual rule relaxation happens, and mass vaccination is the hoped-for silver bullet for it
According to this yahoo article about 65 - 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated until we can get back to normal. That said there still may be mutations or other complicating factors that could throw a wrench in things.
That will depend heavily on what state you are in. Dining in is fully open in some states with only masks on entry/exit. Mask usage in some areas is vastly different than others.
Its likely that a some places will heavily ease restrictions as soon as next month.
The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about.
Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influential” person giving you permission.
The masks will stop as soon as people stop wearing the masks, I expect that may need to happen before politician’s “cover my ass” mandates are abandoned.
The vaccine grants 95% protection with those measures in place. We have no idea how effective it is without those measures. If we're all going to dance parties, the vaccine might not be adequate.
I think the question is the point at which we can send kids back to schools and reopen our businesses with precautions in place -- in other words, stem the pain and bleeding.
It makes sense to keep masks on and 6-foot distance until the virus is gone, though. Vaccine+masking/distancing should be enough to get rid of it. It's not clear vaccine alone will do that.
If not, we'll be on a dance for decades with new mutations, vaccines, and whatnot. We want this thing dead and gone for good.
I don't think we're on a path to get there, though. People are fed up. If we can't get this under control, I suspect the new normal will be outbreaks for the rest of our lives. Perhaps the vaccine will be 95% without distancing. Or perhaps not.
No one is quite sure but we're a LONG way from it.. and that's without addressing the fear/trauma that's been inflicted on otherwise healthy+exceptionally low risk people.
From a month ago:
Dr. Anthony Fauci now says as much as 90 percent of the population may need to get vaccinated or infected to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 — admitting in a new interview that he has been intentionally raising the bar based, in part, on what he thinks the country is ready to hear.
“We really don’t know what the real number is,” the nation’s top infectious disease expert told the New York Times.
“I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”
We'll unlikely reach said number because over 50% of the population of the us is not interested in a vaccine because they do not view covid-19 as a disease much more risky than the flu.
Facing this reality, the policy will probably be once everyone who wants it has had a chance to get it, things will or should move towards normal.
The number I have seen quotes form Dr Fauci is 70-85%. However I have seen no studies so far that show that either of the vaccines used in the US slow down the spread of COVID, just that they prevent severe cases. Also neither has been tested in children under 16 which is obviously a large population.
A lot of Americans have already stopped complying with public health recommendations. Or they never put on a mask to begin with. It's like a teacher who tells a class to line up so they can be dismissed but someone doesn't go along and drags out the whole process.
Hopefully the decisions will be data driven like they are now. When the number of new cases, positivity rates, and deaths in a given region fall below specific thresholds, the next phase of opening up happens in that region. Then those numbers start to increase, then restrictions start going back in place. The same as it has been since the start of this pandemic.
With those that are the most vulnerable (front-line workers, elderly and health compromised), hopefully the death rate will start to fall as they are getting the vaccine first. That is what I'm looking forward to.
I am not an expert at all, but I guess it really depends on the effect that "precautions" have on transmissibility, and therefore... probably in at least a few months, not before - assuming the vaccines protect from the new variants.
What exactly is so difficult about wearing masks for Americans?
I'm an expat living in Thailand, which has an exceptionally low number of cases due to consistent mask use and social precautions.
Even if the vaccine reaches a level of saturation that is deemed safe, wearing a mask is a sane precaution that does not hurt you in any way and potentially saves lives of those unable to receive the vaccine.
I had a bit of a frustrating experience getting my elderly parents signed up for a jab today.
They are patients of a local hospital conglomerate. (I realize that’s typical in the States, Kaiser et al., but I’ve been living in Ontario, where you’re not wedded to some particular chain.) The hospital system said they’d notify patients who qualify, which both of my parents do, in spades. Dad was just in the ICU, during the pandemic, thought not for COVID.
Now, how did they choose to notify people? Well, how would you choose to notify elderly patients? A phone call, right? Perhaps a letter in the mail? Maybe a text?
Ha. No. They are apparently notifying people…through their patient portal app. No push notifications. No email notifications. The message just appears in your inbox, and it’s up to you to find it.
Which is, you know, less than optimal for the patients in these 1a and 1b vaccine groups. You know what a lot of elderly people aren’t great at? Constantly checking an app to see if they got a message.
Of course, for all I know, they may have other methods to contact people. But do they communicate those methods anywhere? No.
Ugh. I know. This is all complicated and rolling out at record speed. I get it. The logistics of this whole mess are horrifying. But just the teeniest bit of information and UX design here would got a long ways.
I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population).
If we are able to reduce the severe case rate by 10x or 100x, do we even need to reach herd immunity or would to be best just to remove all social distancing controls and let it burn itself out, knowing that the negative impact from those infections would be small enough to not put a strain on healthcare resources?
This is unabashedly great news. For those debating if it is a sterilizing vaccine, if it’s perfect, what it means, etc, I point you to the following chart from Moderna’s trial:
Great news, 5% of the population already. That shows me how my home country - Germany, which was once saw as example on the fight against COVID-19 - still far behind. We only vaccinated 1.8% of our population. I wonder if the credits of a good rollout and access to such amount of vaccine will be given to the Trump administration as it should be?
America has ~330 million people. Let's assume the 18.7 Million was just in the month of january..not 100% acurate, but not 100% inaccurate.
That gives us a timeline of more than 1 year at current rate to vaccinate the entire US. Even vaccinating 70% the population will take roughly a year at current pace.
Here is a interactive chart showing various nations [1]
Israel will be #1 by far. They have apparently paid $65/dose or something like that, far ahead of what others have paid, moreover, the dealing looks a little problematic. Obviously, it's worth far, far more than $65 a person, but it may not make too much sense to get into a vicious bidding war as it's unlikely to increase the rate of production and the surpluses would just be going into the hands of Parmacorps.
Does anyone know where I can find how many doses have been distributed to each state and how many are stockpiled federally or by the manufacturers? That’s the info I really can’t seem to find and it would be really interesting to see. Also would love to see production numbers day by day if possible. The simplistic estimates I keep seeing on places like CNN basically just take the current daily vaccination rate and use that as the rate for future projections which is obviously incorrect as production and distribution is ramping up.
This site is nice, but also it only shows the percentage of people who got a single dose, which is basically meaningless. We really should stop counting a dose as one vial and stop counting how many people got just one dose.
...or, at least halfway there (both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses). One dose is probably already somewhat useful, but how useful is not super-well characterized.
Can someone help me understand the difference between this and other vaccines? From what I know, the COVID-19 vaccine is only effective in reducing symptoms for those who get inoculated. Is it accurate to say this vaccine does not prevent infection or help develop an immunity? I just do not understand how vaccines work. Would love a (peer-reviewed) source or sources I could read to brush up.
This is not a political or bait post I really am looking for some signal in all the noise.
My Adblocker won’t let me load the submitted site. I wonder if it’s stats are better than Bloomberg’s?[0] Which shows US & global distribution, also claims over 22m Americans have been vaccinated
One thought: do we need herd immunity at all? Wait, hold off pushing the downvote button.
Why is this virus a problem? Not strictly because of deaths, although one would want to avoid unnecessary ones. It's due to the pressure on the healthcare system, because many people end up hospitalized, even though most of them recover (more on long COVID at the end of the post).
The vast majority of people ending up in hospitals are also belonging in the "at risk" population. To relieve pressure on the healthcare system, these must be vaccinated (along with healthcare workers). But once the most vulnerable and the most at risk of hospitalization are vaccinated, the pressure on the healthcare system should lower or cease for the most part (and the early data from Israel seem to indicate just that).
Of course, vaccination should continue (for those who want to get vaccinated), but with the risk of overwhelming hospitals gone completely, it would not be a problem. So society should reopen. And yes, in this case the virus will become endemic (it almost is already, save for a handful of places).
What about the others? Aside those who vaccinate, those recovered who did not have serious complications can go on like normal, like everyone else. According to data from Qatar[1] the risk of reinfection is low, and, most importantly, the vast majority of reinfections are asymptomatic (and asymptomatic people spread much less than symptomatic people, FTR[2]). In the context of the virus mutating towards (in the timespan of years, rather than months) completely escaping immunity, it is much better to rely on a combination of vaccination and natural immunity, so that subsequent, possible reinfections are not severe. That would also give time to adjust the vaccines if need be.
Unfortunately even throwing natural immunity along with vaccination is now a taboo topic, given how politicized the debate has become.
"What about long COVID?" some people may say. Well, the problem with long COVID is that, while it certainly exists, it is poorly characterized. Most studies lack a baseline before infection (or rely on self-reporting), so it is hard to determine what and for how long happens after an infection. Lastly, "regular" pneumonia can actually wreck someone for months or even a year, and some of these issues we're seeing may due to that: we're just seeing them at an increased rate because more people are experiencing that.
> * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?"
I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever.
And certainly the percentage needed will differ whether we assume social distancing and travel restrictions are continued or not. Personally I hope we keep a lot of it, at least a long while more. I really hate catching flu's and colds.
[+] [-] umvi|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TheSoftwareGuy|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] superkuh|5 years ago|reply
So, even if you're the required 2 months post vaccinated you probably shouldn't stop wearing a mask or social distancing until 100% of the population around you has either also been vaccinated or been infected and recovered.
When will the entire population be vaccinated or already infected? At current rates it may be a year or two.
[+] [-] rmk|5 years ago|reply
I'm not sure if under-16 cohorts' trials are underway already. If they are, and if children are going to be vaccinated before their next school term starts, then society as a whole may consider dropping the current precautions.
[+] [-] eplanit|5 years ago|reply
Then, many/most will say _fuck it_, I'm taking my life back. I'm visualizing that day, and will welcome it.
[+] [-] jeremiahhs|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xivzgrev|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] randmeerkat|5 years ago|reply
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/around-65-75-of-the-populatio...
[+] [-] _ea1k|5 years ago|reply
Its likely that a some places will heavily ease restrictions as soon as next month.
Will that be too early? Depends.
[+] [-] FrojoS|5 years ago|reply
Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influential” person giving you permission.
[+] [-] luxuryballs|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] woofie11|5 years ago|reply
The vaccine grants 95% protection with those measures in place. We have no idea how effective it is without those measures. If we're all going to dance parties, the vaccine might not be adequate.
I think the question is the point at which we can send kids back to schools and reopen our businesses with precautions in place -- in other words, stem the pain and bleeding.
It makes sense to keep masks on and 6-foot distance until the virus is gone, though. Vaccine+masking/distancing should be enough to get rid of it. It's not clear vaccine alone will do that.
If not, we'll be on a dance for decades with new mutations, vaccines, and whatnot. We want this thing dead and gone for good.
I don't think we're on a path to get there, though. People are fed up. If we can't get this under control, I suspect the new normal will be outbreaks for the rest of our lives. Perhaps the vaccine will be 95% without distancing. Or perhaps not.
[+] [-] caseysoftware|5 years ago|reply
From a month ago:
Dr. Anthony Fauci now says as much as 90 percent of the population may need to get vaccinated or infected to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 — admitting in a new interview that he has been intentionally raising the bar based, in part, on what he thinks the country is ready to hear.
“We really don’t know what the real number is,” the nation’s top infectious disease expert told the New York Times.
“I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”
Ref: https://nypost.com/2020/12/24/fauci-covid-herd-immunity-requ...
[+] [-] 11thEarlOfMar|5 years ago|reply
About 25 million have recovered so far. That puts us at about 12% 'immune'.
[+] [-] not_a_moth|5 years ago|reply
Facing this reality, the policy will probably be once everyone who wants it has had a chance to get it, things will or should move towards normal.
[+] [-] IgorPartola|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] supertrope|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nradov|5 years ago|reply
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200927/florida-lifts-covid...
[+] [-] travisoneill1|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] derekp7|5 years ago|reply
With those that are the most vulnerable (front-line workers, elderly and health compromised), hopefully the death rate will start to fall as they are getting the vaccine first. That is what I'm looking forward to.
[+] [-] smileysteve|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] simonebrunozzi|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xyst|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Kim_Bruning|5 years ago|reply
As number of immune people goes up, R goes down, and you can start reducing measures. (until R goes to near-0, at which point you're done) .
At least, that's the theory.
[+] [-] mam2|5 years ago|reply
All the rest is pure fear-driven bullshit
[+] [-] lsiebert|5 years ago|reply
Sadly it didn't have to be this bad. Compare the US to New Zealand.
[+] [-] eladgil|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] duxup|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] diveanon|5 years ago|reply
I'm an expat living in Thailand, which has an exceptionally low number of cases due to consistent mask use and social precautions.
Even if the vaccine reaches a level of saturation that is deemed safe, wearing a mask is a sane precaution that does not hurt you in any way and potentially saves lives of those unable to receive the vaccine.
[+] [-] offtop5|5 years ago|reply
In a high profile case Dave Ramsey had a holiday party and told employees to not wear masks .
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/caterers-finance-guru-d...
[+] [-] perardi|5 years ago|reply
They are patients of a local hospital conglomerate. (I realize that’s typical in the States, Kaiser et al., but I’ve been living in Ontario, where you’re not wedded to some particular chain.) The hospital system said they’d notify patients who qualify, which both of my parents do, in spades. Dad was just in the ICU, during the pandemic, thought not for COVID.
Now, how did they choose to notify people? Well, how would you choose to notify elderly patients? A phone call, right? Perhaps a letter in the mail? Maybe a text?
Ha. No. They are apparently notifying people…through their patient portal app. No push notifications. No email notifications. The message just appears in your inbox, and it’s up to you to find it.
Which is, you know, less than optimal for the patients in these 1a and 1b vaccine groups. You know what a lot of elderly people aren’t great at? Constantly checking an app to see if they got a message.
Of course, for all I know, they may have other methods to contact people. But do they communicate those methods anywhere? No.
Ugh. I know. This is all complicated and rolling out at record speed. I get it. The logistics of this whole mess are horrifying. But just the teeniest bit of information and UX design here would got a long ways.
[+] [-] dougmwne|5 years ago|reply
If we are able to reduce the severe case rate by 10x or 100x, do we even need to reach herd immunity or would to be best just to remove all social distancing controls and let it burn itself out, knowing that the negative impact from those infections would be small enough to not put a strain on healthcare resources?
[+] [-] bigcorp-slave|5 years ago|reply
https://www.zq1.de/~bernhard/images/share/mRNA-1273-trial.pn...
I think this pretty much says it all.
[+] [-] pelasaco|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cobookman|5 years ago|reply
That gives us a timeline of more than 1 year at current rate to vaccinate the entire US. Even vaccinating 70% the population will take roughly a year at current pace.
Puts things in some perspective.
[+] [-] jariel|5 years ago|reply
Israel will be #1 by far. They have apparently paid $65/dose or something like that, far ahead of what others have paid, moreover, the dealing looks a little problematic. Obviously, it's worth far, far more than $65 a person, but it may not make too much sense to get into a vicious bidding war as it's unlikely to increase the rate of production and the surpluses would just be going into the hands of Parmacorps.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[+] [-] tenken|5 years ago|reply
... This is not necessarily vaccinated with a full dose.
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] thoughtstheseus|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] IgorPartola|5 years ago|reply
This site is nice, but also it only shows the percentage of people who got a single dose, which is basically meaningless. We really should stop counting a dose as one vial and stop counting how many people got just one dose.
[+] [-] tasty_freeze|5 years ago|reply
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-glo...
[+] [-] rossdavidh|5 years ago|reply
Still, it's a lot more than a month ago.
[+] [-] kfrzcode|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kikowi|5 years ago|reply
It got so far that they might lose their job, because they believe in the hoax and refuse to get vaccinated.
[+] [-] whycombagator|5 years ago|reply
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-glo...
[+] [-] RickJWagner|5 years ago|reply
More of that would be good.
[+] [-] _ZeD_|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lbeltrame|5 years ago|reply
Why is this virus a problem? Not strictly because of deaths, although one would want to avoid unnecessary ones. It's due to the pressure on the healthcare system, because many people end up hospitalized, even though most of them recover (more on long COVID at the end of the post).
The vast majority of people ending up in hospitals are also belonging in the "at risk" population. To relieve pressure on the healthcare system, these must be vaccinated (along with healthcare workers). But once the most vulnerable and the most at risk of hospitalization are vaccinated, the pressure on the healthcare system should lower or cease for the most part (and the early data from Israel seem to indicate just that).
Of course, vaccination should continue (for those who want to get vaccinated), but with the risk of overwhelming hospitals gone completely, it would not be a problem. So society should reopen. And yes, in this case the virus will become endemic (it almost is already, save for a handful of places).
What about the others? Aside those who vaccinate, those recovered who did not have serious complications can go on like normal, like everyone else. According to data from Qatar[1] the risk of reinfection is low, and, most importantly, the vast majority of reinfections are asymptomatic (and asymptomatic people spread much less than symptomatic people, FTR[2]). In the context of the virus mutating towards (in the timespan of years, rather than months) completely escaping immunity, it is much better to rely on a combination of vaccination and natural immunity, so that subsequent, possible reinfections are not severe. That would also give time to adjust the vaccines if need be.
Unfortunately even throwing natural immunity along with vaccination is now a taboo topic, given how politicized the debate has become.
"What about long COVID?" some people may say. Well, the problem with long COVID is that, while it certainly exists, it is poorly characterized. Most studies lack a baseline before infection (or rely on self-reporting), so it is hard to determine what and for how long happens after an infection. Lastly, "regular" pneumonia can actually wreck someone for months or even a year, and some of these issues we're seeing may due to that: we're just seeing them at an increased rate because more people are experiencing that.
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249731v...
[2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...
[+] [-] unishark|5 years ago|reply
I'd say ongoing vaccination (after herd immunity is reached) is irrelevant to the herd immunity calculation. Is that what you meant? Though we'd obviously still need vaccinations as much of the world will not have herd immunity for a long time, if ever.
And certainly the percentage needed will differ whether we assume social distancing and travel restrictions are continued or not. Personally I hope we keep a lot of it, at least a long while more. I really hate catching flu's and colds.