The publisher isn't a distributor. Rather, they provide editorial and marketing services and a hell of a lot of inputs that are largely invisible to the end user. The lions share of the profit doesn't go to the publisher -- who typically nets as much as the author after paying for all the pre-press stuff -- but to the distribution channel. Which is Amazon (insofar as they're trying to take over and merge the roles of distributors/wholesalers and retailers).
Fun fact: Authors get 35%, not 70%, on any sales outside selected countries like the US and UK. Also, if you set the price above $9.99, you are getting 35% only in any country. This may be OK for a novel, but it rarely works for technical authors. And 35% royalty on a technical book you self-publish is absurd.
The publishing industry is already dead. It's been dead for years.
By 'dead' I mean that the number of copies any one book is expected to sell is pathetic compared to other industries. A book that sells 100k copies is doing extremely well, whereas an album, video game, or movie that made similar numbers would be a disasterous flop. Advances, the main value that publishers provide to authors, have shrunk to the point where you could draw a bigger advance (on better terms) at an ATM with your credit card.
I'm hopeful that the democratization of publishing will allow new types of author to succeed, now that ownership of a printing plant isn't a barrier to reaching your audience, and revitalize the publishing industry. It really can't get much worse.
> A book that sells 100k copies is doing extremely well, whereas an album, video game, or movie that made similar numbers would be a disasterous flop.
I'd invert that. You can have many more authors succeed because they can be happy with 100k copies. Everyone can read different books in the same month, and that's fine.
Movies, not so much. Most of the time the only movie-going options are the same 50 movies, probably worldwide. If everybody reading a book had to choose between the same 50 books because those were the only ones available this month, most authors would die horribly and a (very) few would become super-rich. Independent movie-makers are dead because the economics of making a movie dictate that very very few can pull together the required talent, manage it into an actual creation, get it distributed, market it, etc. So all power is concentrated into very few hands, who need tens of millions of views or the movie is a failure.
I reckon publishing is probably a lot more vibrant than the movie industry. Heck, we're buying (tiny data) Kindle books instead of torrenting them. I reckon the movie industry are thinking "how the heck did they pull that off?!"
It is good that power is being transferred away from a small number of publishers, but that power is being transferred to an even smaller number of platform owners like: Amazon, Google, Sony, Apple etc. To me, it just seems like a shift in power from old media entities to new media entities.
Historically, publishers provided at least two valuable services: distribution and marketing. They captured the value they were providing by "taxing" distribution (i.e., adding a profit margin for themselves). ebooks make distribution cheap and easy making publishers unecessary in that role.
Marketing is still valuable, but publishers never directly charged for that (as far as I know), hence their dilemma.
The major role of the publisher has always been to make sure copies of a book sell.
They select work they think will be commercial.
They pay advances to authors so the author can live while they're writing.
They baby step books to market with limited printings, and then test / edit / revise and tweak cover art etc.
If there's a glimmer of a winner they pour money into advertising in magazines, to PR people, etc.
They pay for exclusive positioning to get it at the front of your B&N store locally, pay reps to go out on the road and talk to local book stores, etc.
So if the end-goal for most authors is to make a living from their writing, how is publishing going to be disrupted?
Authors are still going to need advances.
Reps may no longer hit the road to independent bookstores, but they certainly might hit the road to meet influential bloggers.
Advertising dollars will still help raise awareness and sales.
So while the publishing industry is certainly going to transform, it's certainly not going to be destroyed.
What this means is the little guy has a shot to have a big hit due to the massive distribution power of the kindle/nook/iBooks platforms. It's the same phenomenon as app stores for software or blogging for news or iTunes for music.
Major companies controlled major distribution. Now they don't. Of course an empire built around a competitive advantage that no longer exists is going to necessarily shrink.
It's true that the little guy has a shot at massive success without an intermediary like an agent, a publisher, and massive marketing.
The flip side of this is that there will be more and more and more small, "vanity" books being sold in small quantities. Disintermediation is about the long tail. The little guy still has very little chance of scoring a major success, but lots of people will be able to write and make a few bucks for it.
Being a part-time author is now a serious proposition.
I've found a nice new startup by some HNers that allows you to easily publish your book in pdf, epub and mobi formats just by putting it in a shared dropbox folder and pressing a button. I even converted a tutorial of mine into a book and published it in a few clicks!
What I like about this is that, if you purchase the book there, you can get all updates for free. That means that I can post the tutorial there now for $2, then maybe add a chapter and raise the price by $0.5 every time I add new content, but all the early adopters have already bought it and get the updates for free.
[+] [-] hamner|15 years ago|reply
-Authors get up to 70%, as opposed to 5-15% -Far less trees are killed
-Eliminates the role of the publisher / physical distribution channel, which claimed the lion's share of the profits without adding creative value
-Marginal cost of distributing an extra book is on the order of cents
I've not read a hardcover book since getting a Kindle.
[+] [-] cstross|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] acangiano|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gamble|15 years ago|reply
By 'dead' I mean that the number of copies any one book is expected to sell is pathetic compared to other industries. A book that sells 100k copies is doing extremely well, whereas an album, video game, or movie that made similar numbers would be a disasterous flop. Advances, the main value that publishers provide to authors, have shrunk to the point where you could draw a bigger advance (on better terms) at an ATM with your credit card.
I'm hopeful that the democratization of publishing will allow new types of author to succeed, now that ownership of a printing plant isn't a barrier to reaching your audience, and revitalize the publishing industry. It really can't get much worse.
[+] [-] richardw|15 years ago|reply
I'd invert that. You can have many more authors succeed because they can be happy with 100k copies. Everyone can read different books in the same month, and that's fine.
Movies, not so much. Most of the time the only movie-going options are the same 50 movies, probably worldwide. If everybody reading a book had to choose between the same 50 books because those were the only ones available this month, most authors would die horribly and a (very) few would become super-rich. Independent movie-makers are dead because the economics of making a movie dictate that very very few can pull together the required talent, manage it into an actual creation, get it distributed, market it, etc. So all power is concentrated into very few hands, who need tens of millions of views or the movie is a failure.
I reckon publishing is probably a lot more vibrant than the movie industry. Heck, we're buying (tiny data) Kindle books instead of torrenting them. I reckon the movie industry are thinking "how the heck did they pull that off?!"
[+] [-] themal|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mv1|15 years ago|reply
Marketing is still valuable, but publishers never directly charged for that (as far as I know), hence their dilemma.
[+] [-] aresant|15 years ago|reply
They select work they think will be commercial.
They pay advances to authors so the author can live while they're writing.
They baby step books to market with limited printings, and then test / edit / revise and tweak cover art etc.
If there's a glimmer of a winner they pour money into advertising in magazines, to PR people, etc.
They pay for exclusive positioning to get it at the front of your B&N store locally, pay reps to go out on the road and talk to local book stores, etc.
So if the end-goal for most authors is to make a living from their writing, how is publishing going to be disrupted?
Authors are still going to need advances.
Reps may no longer hit the road to independent bookstores, but they certainly might hit the road to meet influential bloggers.
Advertising dollars will still help raise awareness and sales.
So while the publishing industry is certainly going to transform, it's certainly not going to be destroyed.
[+] [-] unknown|15 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] programminggeek|15 years ago|reply
Major companies controlled major distribution. Now they don't. Of course an empire built around a competitive advantage that no longer exists is going to necessarily shrink.
It would be folly to think otherwise.
[+] [-] raganwald|15 years ago|reply
The flip side of this is that there will be more and more and more small, "vanity" books being sold in small quantities. Disintermediation is about the long tail. The little guy still has very little chance of scoring a major success, but lots of people will be able to write and make a few bucks for it.
Being a part-time author is now a serious proposition.
[+] [-] gte910h|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] StavrosK|15 years ago|reply
http://leanpub.com/learn-python
What I like about this is that, if you purchase the book there, you can get all updates for free. That means that I can post the tutorial there now for $2, then maybe add a chapter and raise the price by $0.5 every time I add new content, but all the early adopters have already bought it and get the updates for free.
So far, I love it.
[+] [-] AndrewDucker|15 years ago|reply