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US raises ‘deep concerns’ over WHO report on Covid’s Wuhan origins

502 points| lazycrazyowl | 5 years ago |reuters.com

632 comments

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[+] ttz|5 years ago|reply
First gen Chinese, grew up in NA. Have contact with relatives "on the ground".

My own experience: Don't ever trust the Chinese government on issues that could potentially involve the reputation of the party. Note that I'm not saying don't trust what CCP says, ever (sometimes they actually do good things) - just not on issues that involve anything to do with how the world might perceive them.

Which is exactly what this issue is about.

That's not to say we have compelling evidence that this was a lab virus, either. I think, for me, it's a, "we don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a lab virus".

[+] tripletao|5 years ago|reply
I don't know whether SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab. But if it did, then not only is it probably not the first lab-origin pandemic, but it's also not the first time the WHO initially excluded that possibility.

The 1977 Russian Flu pandemic was genetically near-identical to a strain from 1950, without the expected mutations that should have appeared after 27 years of undetected circulation among humans or animals. It's been widely suspected in mainstream literature to have escaped from a research or vaccine manufacturing accident, to the point that the NEJM casually wrote:

> The reemergence was probably an accidental release from a laboratory source in the setting of waning population immunity to H1 and N1 antigens

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra0904322

But at the time, the WHO said:

> Laboratory contamination can be excluded because the laboratories concerned either had never kept H1N1 virus or had not worked with it for a long time.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2395678/pdf/bul...

And it's absolutely bizarre to me that people are asking why the origin even matters. After thousands of people died in Bhopal, did it matter whether better chemical safety standards could have prevented that? So with millions dead now, how could you possibly not wonder whether our current standards for the sampling and manipulation of poorly-understood pandemic-candidate viruses are adequate?

[+] mgamache|5 years ago|reply
Related: China refused to provide WHO team with raw data on early COVID cases,

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-ch...

[+] f430|5 years ago|reply
If the CCP is innocent why not prove it to the world by sharing their data? Why hide things?
[+] mr_toad|5 years ago|reply
Release of raw patient data to international researchers from most countries would be unusual, and even if a strong case were made it would have to undergo ethics committee approval, which would take months.
[+] ArkanExplorer|5 years ago|reply
But we did have data from cruise ships early in 2020 which showed that deaths were heavily age-specific, and that the death and hospitalization forecasts from organisations like Oxford were highly inaccurate.

Yet for some reason the West seemed intent on pursuing lockdowns, demonising countries like Sweden and Belarus which didn't.

Hospitals have never been overloaded (apart from places like New York where symptomatic patients were sent back into nursing homes - or Italy, with generally inadequate pandemic preparations) and in places like Sweden deaths in 2020 are up only single-digits against 2018:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-...

As soon as we realised we were over-intubating patients, and that proning and oxygen treatment were sufficient for serious admissions, and that Vitamin D and C (and other cheap and generic treatments) were enough for the general population, the potential for hospital overload (beyond what flu waves incur anyway) was also eliminated.

And yet we still persist with lockdowns despite them causing a greater amount of harm than the virus itself due to factors like interrupted education, mental damage, and interrupted regular medical treatment.

There were political games afoot in both China and the West in terms of this virus. The fact that the American economy was booming just before the re-election of a non-mainstream, anti-China president, and that pandemic responses justified mail-in voting on an unprecedent scale is too coincidental to ignore.

[+] mgamache|5 years ago|reply
If anyone is tempted to associate 'lab leak' with xenophobia or anti-Chinese sentiment, please remember the WIV lab was in partnership with the U.S. NIH (National Institutes of Health).

https://www.biospace.com/article/1nih-awards-ecohealth-allia...

[+] loveistheanswer|5 years ago|reply
Also noteworthy is Dr. Fauci has been a long time proponent and sponsor of gain of function experiments as head of the NIAID, the infectious diseases arm of the NIH.[1]

After a few different US lab leaks involving anthrax, smallpox, and avian flu in 2014 the Obama administration put a ban on the fuding of gain of function research.[2]

The ban was eventually overturned in 2018.[3]

[1]https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-wor...

[2]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-anthrax-labs-analysis...

[3]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

[+] onethought|5 years ago|reply
I think there are a couple of conflations in the 'lab leak' meme.

- China intentionally manufactured the virus and released it (Proven false, virus wasn't engineered)

- China accidentally released the virus while collecting it (Possible, but unlikely given the virus has early evidence away from both collection point and Wuhan Lab)

- China has too many wet markets that allowed the virus to mutate enough for human jump (Current consensus working theory, but also unproven as intermediary animal has not been identified)

But all of these list China as the responsible party, so if you want to call it out as not Xenophobia or Anti-China sentiment then you'd have to show evidence the reporting showed "Joint Sino-American research lab causes..." kind of headlines. Otherwise, you point strengthens that this has at least an under current of anti-china sentiment, as the reporting has not mentioned US involvement at all.

WHO of course have a lot to answer for with regards to ignoring Taiwan because if BS geopolitics when they had the most reliable/believable/compelling evidence of the nature of SARS-Cov2

[+] rsync|5 years ago|reply
"If anyone is tempted to associate 'lab leak' with xenophobia or anti-Chinese sentiment, please remember the WIV lab was in partnership with the U.S. NIH ..."

Thank you. I'm curious ... how many virology labs, like this one, are extant in the world and how many study coronaviruses as they did ?

Is it tens of thousands of virology labs like this one and hundreds that study coronaviruses ?

Or is it hundreds of virology labs like this one and a handful study coronaviruses ?

[+] esja|5 years ago|reply
I am yet to see a single piece of evidence which rules out the lab leak hypothesis. Meanwhile the circumstantial evidence in favour of that hypothesis (including China’s behaviour) continues to pile up. We may never discover the truth, but I really hope we do.
[+] Fricken|5 years ago|reply
What's weird is that a number of WHO investigation team members a week ago said China was very transparent, cooperative and helpful. Some have tweeted against the NYT who spun the WHO team's accounts into anti-China propaganda.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/13605511085659...

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817...

[+] wk_end|5 years ago|reply
Peter Daszak isn't impartial, and quite frankly his presence on the team alone makes its conclusions suspect. From this [1] excellent investigation into the subject from New York Magazine:

> Peter Daszak, is a zoologist and bat-virus sample collector and the head of a New York nonprofit called EcoHealth Alliance — a group that [...] has channeled money from the National Institutes of Health to Shi Zhengli’s laboratory in Wuhan, allowing the lab to carry on recombinant research into diseases of bats and humans.

> [...]

> Daszak, for his part, seems to have viewed his bat quests as part of an epic, quasi-religious death match. In a paper from 2008, Daszak and a co-author described Bruegel’s painting The Fall of the Rebel Angels and compared it to the contemporary human biological condition. The fallen angels could be seen as pathogenic organisms that had descended “through an evolutionary (not spiritual) pathway that takes them to a netherworld where they can feed only on our genes, our cells, our flesh,” Daszak wrote. “Will we succumb to the multitudinous horde? Are we to be cast downward into chthonic chaos represented here by the heaped up gibbering phantasmagory against which we rail and struggle?”

There's much more in there; it's clear that he's good friends and business partners with the WIV and it would be deeply his interest to suppress any consideration of the lab-escape hypothesis.

[1] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca...

[+] bigpumpkin|5 years ago|reply
Would love to hear more from Thea Fischer, who the WSJ quotes extensively.
[+] _nkl1|5 years ago|reply
"Deep concerns" over Navalny's poisoning. "Deep concerns" over Navalny's imprisonment. "Deep concerns" over the coup in Myanmar. And now "deep concerns" over China refusing to provide data to the WHO.
[+] zug_zug|5 years ago|reply
Cool, glad both sides of the aisle are willing to consider all possible origins. It shouldn't be a political statement to want the most accurate answer to a health-question, and maybe it won't have to be anymore.
[+] Leary|5 years ago|reply
People don't realize that we are engaged in a great power competition with China. And the battle of information/misinformation is everywhere. Don't trust anything from the US/China about the other, rely on neutral third parties instead
[+] SixDouble5321|5 years ago|reply
It doesn't seem to me that any significant third party can be completely neutral when it concerns the US and China.

There is practically nowhere on this planet one can hope to truly be unaffected by one or the other.

[+] mc32|5 years ago|reply
Beside the danger of adding function to an infectious virus, the biggest danger is the complete politicization of the virus. The WHO has changed their tune back and forth, often vehemently with little to back up its position. In that light the US should consider withdrawing completely from this body.
[+] rossdavidh|5 years ago|reply
So, perhaps there is a valid reason for China to refuse to give the raw data on early COVID-19 victims to the WHO, but I have to say, as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the possibility of it being lab-created, I have to say this is not a good look for China.
[+] loveistheanswer|5 years ago|reply
>as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the possibility of it being lab-created

It need not be "lab-created". Most samples are taken from the wild, and then has its evolution stimulated for research.

[+] knolax|5 years ago|reply
It's interesting that instead of posting the report itself, or even a detailed article that criticizes the report, the top article on HN is a bland summary of an accusation from a third party with no direct quotes or attribution. It's basically a press release.

The only article that I can find that actually tries to levy complaints of obstruction is this one from the NYT[0]. However, several of the WHO investigators quoted have gone on Twitter accusing the NYT of twisting their words[1]. Makes me pretty doubtful that there was any obstruction.

On one side we have a country with half a million cases that has since December been accusing China with "coverups" without materializing much evidence, despite document leaks and now an international investigation. On the other side we have a country with orders of magnitude fewer total and per capita cases, whose case demographics have matched up with numbers from other countries, and whose export numbers in neighboring countries has also been consistent with their reported numbers. At this point if there was some sort of obstruction or coverup the Whitehouse would have a smoking gun by now.

Other comments here talking about the "lab origin" theory pretty much hinge on theological logic. "Well it could come from a lab, and there's no proof yet that it didn't, so I have faith". It isn't Bayesian reasoning if you don't bring up rigorous statistics to prove your point.

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-he...

[1] https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/caught-in-the-act-new-...

[+] bloomfilter|5 years ago|reply
Whether the virus came out of a lab or not, one thing is clear — we as a country can’t handle any pandemic. Till this day we still can’t get everyone wear a mask in public. (I have some people on FB working at tech industry with grad school education still think we should let the virus run its course, and mask is stupid)

Not to mention thousands of large social gatherings that happened way after the virus was already causing thousands of death.

If you can’t control other countries, maybe we should at least figure out how to improve our response?

What if some other virus comes out of nature next time when we have no one to blame?

[+] ggm|5 years ago|reply
Plausible is not evidence. Gain of function as I understand it leaves signs. If scientists say they don't see the signs, that's absence of evidence.

On the other hand zoonotic disease is known to exist.

Please do not allow dislike of a state party system to pollute your thinking. Your views about China do not inform what happened and in the end, this becomes repetitive.

I might add that I dislike many things about other economies just as much. I too indulge these "they musta dunnit" fantasies. But, I wake up to myself: wasting too much time on motive and belief is not helpful.

There is no strong evidence of lab caused leakage. The WHO scientists are competent. WHO politics are ugly, all UN politics are ugly. Read the science.

[+] endisneigh|5 years ago|reply
Forgive my ignorance but even if it was lab created, so what? I don’t really understand why it matters or not. Didn’t the entire world basically have a nearly 3 month heads up on this either way?
[+] jeswin|5 years ago|reply
That depends. Most countries have ratified the biological weapons treaty. If proven to be lab created, the onus will be on them/whoever to prove that this was not part of a weaponization effort. Not to mention, instant loss of goodwill across the world.

Personally, I think the idea of this being lab created by China is far fetched.

[+] throwawaysea|5 years ago|reply
It’s not necessarily lab created but it could have been leaked from a lab (which studies coronaviruses and bats) even if it wasn’t artificial. It matters because it lays more blame on China and creates the political expediency needed for sanctions. I do agree that there should be consequences for the Chinese government regardless of whether the virus was a leak or not (or artificial or not), and that it isn’t dependent on such investigations. My reason is that the CCP suppressed early reports of the virus and delayed the entire world’s response. They also did not shut down their airports for months and exported the virus to the rest of us as a result.
[+] LMYahooTFY|5 years ago|reply
I think there are social/political ramifications to seriously consider.

Similar to if we had a sudden large radiation hazard and it was unclear if it was some spontaneously emerging phenomenon with essentially no direct human cause, or a power plant/enrichment facility/warhead manufacturer/etc.

And beyond that, there are supposedly methods of (even purely scientifically motivated) research that would involve engineering a virus with certain properties that also happen to make it extraordinarily deadly.

Ethics committees determine all sorts of experiments to be prohibitively unethical, and a virus with particularly deadly design should certainly be held under such scrutiny.

[+] Supermancho|5 years ago|reply
You are correct. It makes no difference. This has been an exercise in "bad things will happen" used to reform political views and stoke sabre rattling. China is a bad actor in many arenas, just as the US is a bad actor in many arenas. The idea that any country releases some lab-grown bug will never be politically admitted, so the theory is irrelevant.

I tend to think China is a danger to humanity at-large, but I could be wrong. These specific events have not surprised me (new virus, spread, etc) but the sheer amount of incredulity at the behavior of countries (China, US, etc) is disheartening.

[+] katbyte|5 years ago|reply
If it was leaked in oct that’s far earlier then it making it out into general knowledge in Ja. But granted that doesn’t mean the world would have acted, still took most of it till like March to do anything about it lol
[+] tim333|5 years ago|reply
As someone mentioned above it matters so you can stop it happening again.
[+] LatteLazy|5 years ago|reply
One of most interesting facets of this to me is that China have created multiple zoonotic diseases in the last few years and caused serious loss of life and economic damage and no one seems to want to say anything!?
[+] pfortuny|5 years ago|reply
It was supposedly practically impossible for that to happen so at least someone should be held responsible.

Once a guy is dead, does it matter who killed him?

[+] Frost1x|5 years ago|reply
If it was lab created then you know some group intentionally or through their negligence caused millions and millions of people to die. They won't be held accountable unless China itself would decide to do so (assuming in this hypothetical that it was created by China of course).

If it was being developed as a biological weapon you would tend to assume there's likely progress on how to defend against it by those who created it so you could hope to leverage that work to get a head start on vaccines and so forth. No one could force China to hand that work over but they could certainly pressure them in full force, including some of their allies that may also be suffering.

Overall, there's really not much in terms of actionable information to follow through with. It might help states target spies to keep a closer eye on these scenarios and prompt a better global response in the future.

[+] pessimizer|5 years ago|reply
The US and Western Europe find it very important to find any way to increase anti-China sentiment. Whether or not it is actually meaningful in a practical sense, accusing China of creating and spreading the virus adds to the ancient enemy status that it shares with Russia, and justifies large domestic expenditures.

The public justification for the giant US nuclear arsenal was the entirely fictional "missile gap," thereby creating an actual missile gap in the other direction that the Soviets thought they had to close. I'm not saying that "If new coronaviruses are being cooked up in Wuhan, we'd be negligent if we weren't funding development of our own" thought processes will necessarily become ascendant, but "China is a existential threat to the world, and any expenditure is justified in order to defeat it" is absolutely common.

[+] dm319|5 years ago|reply
[+] mgamache|5 years ago|reply
This was from early last year and really focuses on Pangolins which have been downgraded as a zoonotic source. Serial Passage is the most likely source (as all sources are low probability).
[+] f430|5 years ago|reply

[deleted]

[+] godelmachine|5 years ago|reply
>>*Although the evidence shows that SARS- CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.*

From the conclusion section

[+] hereforphone|5 years ago|reply
"Deep concerns" don't change anything.
[+] odyssey7|5 years ago|reply
The administration is making its first steps toward building the relationships that it wants. Signaling expectations is fine for that.
[+] jchook|5 years ago|reply
Related: Scientists found SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in US blood samples taken from December 2019 to January 2020

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...

Edit: removed incorrect conclusion

[+] mgamache|5 years ago|reply
That's not what is suggests: "These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to January 19, 2020."

Without Chinese data the origin will remain a mystery.

[+] kergonath|5 years ago|reply
Studies have shown that it was circulating in France back in November 2019. Not saying it originated there, there’s no indication of that, but there is a possibility that it had already been spreading for some time before December 2019.
[+] xnfra|5 years ago|reply
I just wish everyone deals with this whole situation with absolute objectivity instead of hyperbole. Speculation and trust is important but please don't input your own subjective perspective into assumptions.