The truth is that the future of Armenia is either with Russia or with Azerbaijan, a Muslim country. It’s their choice, but I know what I would choose myself.
Azerbaijan is also a small country, although it's correctly painted as the bigger and richer of the enemies in this conflict. Additionally, Azeris and Armenians hate each other. So Azerbaijan is too small, weak and culturally different to subsume Armenia.
The big powers in the region are Russia, Turkey and Iran. If you must argue that Armenia should pick a big power to cosy up to, those are the options. Turkey is likely committed to Azerbaijan, but Iran and Russia are willing to play both sides.
Pursuing closer links with Europe and the EU is a fourth option. As the article points out, Armenia has historic links to Europe (although in the same paragraph it concedes that the strongest of those are to Russia, not the Western countries...) and this would be more attractive to Armenians. Unfortunately, it doesn't have much to offer the EU. It's poor and geographically isolated and the EU, which doesn't have unified armed forces, isn't interested in projecting military power overseas.
How is their future with Azerbaijan where killing Armenians is something they are proud of.
Gurgen Margaryan was killed by an Azeri in Hungary. Once he was extradited to Azerbaijan he was released, promoted and got a big pay. Now he's a hero there.
That would require getting a handle on economics, corruption and political mismanagement. It would take a decade or more of change. They could align themselves more with the EU, but remember: The EU cannot, AND WILL NOT, go to war over a small asian country, regardless of how it align it self with the union.
So Armenia would risk provoking it’s neighbors, with no way of defending it self.
So, yeah, the EU would need to grow a massive set of balls and build an army large enough to keep Russia away, and station troops in all EU friendly states bordering Russia. I’d call that a 2050 plan at best.
dmurray|5 years ago
The big powers in the region are Russia, Turkey and Iran. If you must argue that Armenia should pick a big power to cosy up to, those are the options. Turkey is likely committed to Azerbaijan, but Iran and Russia are willing to play both sides.
Pursuing closer links with Europe and the EU is a fourth option. As the article points out, Armenia has historic links to Europe (although in the same paragraph it concedes that the strongest of those are to Russia, not the Western countries...) and this would be more attractive to Armenians. Unfortunately, it doesn't have much to offer the EU. It's poor and geographically isolated and the EU, which doesn't have unified armed forces, isn't interested in projecting military power overseas.
Darmody|5 years ago
Gurgen Margaryan was killed by an Azeri in Hungary. Once he was extradited to Azerbaijan he was released, promoted and got a big pay. Now he's a hero there.
mytailorisrich|5 years ago
mrweasel|5 years ago
So Armenia would risk provoking it’s neighbors, with no way of defending it self.
So, yeah, the EU would need to grow a massive set of balls and build an army large enough to keep Russia away, and station troops in all EU friendly states bordering Russia. I’d call that a 2050 plan at best.
kergonath|5 years ago