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busymichael | 5 years ago
I have taken a slightly different tactic than you. I am trying to surface actionable trade ideas from the social media mentions. Can I predict a stocks price trend from social media discussion?
I think that takes two forms:
1. Real-time alerts to stocks that are moving outside their normal 'mention' bands. Most times social media discussion of a stock is following public news. For example, a company releases earnings and the social media discussion is about those earnings. In that case, the 'mentions' rate will always trail the actual news. But, in some cases, an increase in mention rate is preceding price changes that day -- I am detecting that in real-time (sometimes, so far).
2. Over a long time (months, years) a company's social media mention rate will go up or down. A long-term trend (either positive or negative) could say something about the long-term financial prospects of the company. That could be tradable.
jianingqi|5 years ago
Yeah, I hope to do sth a bit different -- try to understand the retail market and info from them. Rather than straight forward as a stock price prediction, I try to build a tool to make sense on social media discussions.
Building social media predictions on stock price is more like finding an alpha factor -- which we are not very so familiar on how to deal with this part. But there might be something interesting to build a tool for people to look at which might be a factor that could have correlations, such as comparing increase in mentions or news to cross checking with prices. I now that a lot of big hedge funds are having Phd teams to working on finding alpha along with NLP, but it might be more fun to provide retail traders tools to process. For mention rate, I would actually think that it might relate to volatility. Let's have a chat if you are okay!