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offby37years | 5 years ago

California COVID death rate: 0.146%

Florida COVID death rate: 0.155%

These numbers are statistically tied.

Yet, FL's economy is open, kids are in school, Disney World entertaining tourists.

CA's business are closed & kids are depressed and falling behind.

(Bad) leadership matters.

discuss

thesausageking|5 years ago

Note that this is Florida's official death rate which we know underestimates the real rate. The governor stepped in and made all numbers go through a special department which does things like throw out any deaths from non-residents (snowbirds and visitors).

Based on excess death counts, the real number for Florida maybe 25-100% higher. See:

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/25/undercounting-covid-19-d...

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coron...

https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2020.3061...

Izkata|5 years ago

Those are theorizing based on excess deaths. Meanwhile, when the records were directly inspected, they found that Florida's death count was inflated by about 10%: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/house-report-say...

matthewdgreen|5 years ago

Florida is currently facing a $2-$3 billion tax shortfall (numbers vary depending on the time of projection [0]) and California is facing a budget surplus [1]. There are details around this like one-off capital gains and tax rates and budget cuts, but the overall story is that FL had a slightly higher death rate than CA in exchange for an overall economy that isn't doing so well. Some of this is due to the fact that FL's economy is tourism-driven and my personal response to that is: as a tourist I was very tempted to (safely) visit FL this winter, but the whole "our state doesn't believe in basic COVID restrictions" thing made that much too scary.

[0] https://www.wftv.com/news/local/facing-3-billion-shortfall-l...

[1] https://apnews.com/article/gavin-newsom-california-coronavir...

rajin444|5 years ago

Will you adjust your priors after seeing death rates between California and Florida are roughly the same?

thenaturalist|5 years ago

The rates seem to be indeed quite similar, but what are your sources for these numbers? A simple Google search [0, 1] yields

California: 57.501 deaths, 3.641.664 cases (= 1.58%)

[0] https://g.co/kgs/kooiXn

Florida: 32.712 deaths, 2.004.354 cases (= 1.63%)

[1] https://g.co/kgs/Mrh3NR

Total number of cases to total state population is just shy of 10% in both cases.

redisman|5 years ago

Interesting claims. How do you know FL economy and kids depression is doing so much better than CA?

unknown|5 years ago

[deleted]

jacob2484|5 years ago

Unemployment rates for one. But now, numbers are skewed because we printed billions of dollars to bail out California.