[puddingnomeat]

I think this is wrong.

Someone says "it COULD be stuck for weeks"

It gets unstuck earlier, fine. Doesn't invalidate the possibility.

The criticism is moot. If anyone had made bets, then I'd take both more seriously.

[ceejayoz]

We see this all the time with political polling.

"Oh, Nate Silver said Trump only had a 30% chance of winning the election, but he did, so Nate Silver is an idiot!"

[EricE]

Nate Silver wasn’t just a little off - he was massively off outside of accepted norms for polling.

Multiple times no less.