So I know it has little to do with the numbers, but I just got a Model 3 this last weekend.
Originally I was quoted as 2-14 weeks for delivery, but then I was told they had some already available I could select and receive within 2 weeks. There was one available that was exactly the same as what I wanted, so I chose it. Why I had to even choose is weird.
The whole process has spoiled me. Scheduled test drive, financing done online completely (omg that used to take forever to do in person), no annoying sales guy to work with (just ordered online), delivered right to my house.
The car is also fun to drive. I haven't had a new car in 20 years, and driving was just a chore. But now I look forward to driving it, even on my commute to/from work.
It has been weird getting used to how EVERYTHING is different from a normal car, but again, I'm not sure I can go back.
First, Tesla does not yet have real competition in their market niche. They can do things differently. Every car they produce will be sold at full price. There's no incentive to involve a sales staff at this time. It is interesting to hear that you scheduled a test drive though. I'm curious if / when there is meaningful competition in electric vehicle sales, if anything will change on Tesla's end (or if other players will start to adapt to this model.)
Second, buying a car is, at most, one really dreadful day every three years (ideally more like five to ten.) Sales staff can get away with murder, and everyone gets over it and forgets just enough of the pain to go deal with it again in another five years. GM tried to change this with Saturn, but for various reasons, Saturn failed, and that prevented an improved sales model from catching on. (It seems like dealers find this horrible practice works in their favor, especially if everyone keeps doing it, but will it keep working if competition arises with a different model?)
Third, did you trade a car in? This is very typical for most people buying new cars, as many don't want to go through the effort of selling privately. I'd like to hear more about this process.
Fourth, did Tesla work with your preferred lender for financing? I'm curious how big of a network they have. For the last 20 years, I've only financed through my credit union. Anything the dealer wants to arrange is sure to be a nightmare financial institution I wouldn't want to touch with a ten foot pole!
The process is annoying (2-15w wait) but better than haggling with sales guy for 4h in the middle of the workday. Also the cars tend to be fun to drive. I miss my stick shift, but much better carseat space.
I got a car during the pandemic and the only difference is that I had to talk to a salesperson for a few minutes. I actually prefer to talk to a person for big purchases. You’re exaggerating this “process”.
My wife has asked to replace the gas minivan with a Model Y (we have a model 3), and I've refused because I want the safety margin of a EV and a gasoline vehicle. That said, I really don't like driving the van, and it feels like a chore to be driving somewhere and not being able to click down twice and activate autopilot.
Any body panel or other build quality issues? I have a friend who bought a model S a few years ago and had major issues and I've heard horror stories, so I've been trying to give them time to improve on that stuff.
This is incredible, Q1 is usually a very slow quarter. Tesla beat Q4 production numbers even though S/X production lines were down for the whole quarter and CNY slowed production in China last Q.
Due to market seasonality you shouldn't compare the quarter with the previous one. It would be more accurate to compare Q121 with Q120. In that comparison they increased almost 80%
I believe they don't have yearly production goals, but Musk has stated that they aim at growing at 50% over the long-term [1]. These are some snippets for short-term forecasting from Tesla Q4 Earnings:
'Over the past few weeks, we have been upgrading our Freemont Factory to launch the new Model S and Model X'
'Gaga Shanghai has demonstrated the ability to sustain Model 3 production at or above a run rate of 250,000/year'
I don't follow this closely but somehow I'm not surprised the growth is flat, it seemed to me that they were expanding production in many countries so energy went into that until it ramps up aggressively when factories are done (hopefully lessons were learned so it's gonna be a smooth ride).
Regarding competition, it appears that Tesla has 15% market share in the 8 European countries in this report[0]. The article cites 108 different models available (a number only sold a handful of units). The Model 3 is the leader, and Model Y doesn't appear yet, but there certainly appears to be a lot of competition. Overall BEV sales remain a small % of total automobile sales, but with this number of models in production, the competitive landscape could modulate quite a bit from quarter to quarter.
On the one hand, Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point, likely sooner than we imagine. On the other hand, this is exactly the outcome Musk wanted to see: Getting the major incumbents to commit to BEV product lines and developing a serious transitional market.
>Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point
They're building a factory in Berlin already, they're importing as many cars from China and the US as they can, and they're selling everything they make.
Volkswagen sold 134000 EVs in 2020, so about 33000 per quarter. Ford sold 6600 Mach-E in Q1.
Judging by this great report [1] you would expect a worldwide market of about 800k EVs in Q1 2021, with Tesla and Wuling as the most significant producers.
I think it's also interesting to zoom out and look at all car sales[0].
Globally, about 56 million cars sold in 2020 (or about 14 million per quarter), down from 65.5 million in 2019.
China was the largest market with nearly 20 million sales, followed by the United States with 14.5 million.
Comparing the estimate of 14 million per quarter, Tesla hitting 183,000 sales would account for 1.31% of global sales. That is small, but also given how many manufacturers they are, it's by no means insignificant (and of course leading in EVs.)
Globally, Toyota sold 8.7 million cars (2.17m / quarter) or 15.5% of global sales.
In the US, GM sold 2.5 million cars (637k / quarter) in the U.S. or 17.6% of US sales.
[+] [-] impostervt|5 years ago|reply
Originally I was quoted as 2-14 weeks for delivery, but then I was told they had some already available I could select and receive within 2 weeks. There was one available that was exactly the same as what I wanted, so I chose it. Why I had to even choose is weird.
The whole process has spoiled me. Scheduled test drive, financing done online completely (omg that used to take forever to do in person), no annoying sales guy to work with (just ordered online), delivered right to my house.
The car is also fun to drive. I haven't had a new car in 20 years, and driving was just a chore. But now I look forward to driving it, even on my commute to/from work.
It has been weird getting used to how EVERYTHING is different from a normal car, but again, I'm not sure I can go back.
[+] [-] neogodless|5 years ago|reply
First, Tesla does not yet have real competition in their market niche. They can do things differently. Every car they produce will be sold at full price. There's no incentive to involve a sales staff at this time. It is interesting to hear that you scheduled a test drive though. I'm curious if / when there is meaningful competition in electric vehicle sales, if anything will change on Tesla's end (or if other players will start to adapt to this model.)
Second, buying a car is, at most, one really dreadful day every three years (ideally more like five to ten.) Sales staff can get away with murder, and everyone gets over it and forgets just enough of the pain to go deal with it again in another five years. GM tried to change this with Saturn, but for various reasons, Saturn failed, and that prevented an improved sales model from catching on. (It seems like dealers find this horrible practice works in their favor, especially if everyone keeps doing it, but will it keep working if competition arises with a different model?)
Third, did you trade a car in? This is very typical for most people buying new cars, as many don't want to go through the effort of selling privately. I'd like to hear more about this process.
Fourth, did Tesla work with your preferred lender for financing? I'm curious how big of a network they have. For the last 20 years, I've only financed through my credit union. Anything the dealer wants to arrange is sure to be a nightmare financial institution I wouldn't want to touch with a ten foot pole!
[+] [-] w0m|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jehlakj|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] InTheArena|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] api|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] NiekvdMaas|5 years ago|reply
YoY production growth: +76%
YoY deliveries growth: +109%
[+] [-] the_duke|5 years ago|reply
It should be noted that the S/X production lines have been partially offline in Q1 while refitting for the model refresh.
I also wonder if Tesla is impacted by the supply chain issues hammering a lot of the other automakers.
[+] [-] dakial1|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 147|5 years ago|reply
Also the fact that Q1 beat Q4 is quite the feat since the S/X lines are down and Q1 is a terrible quarter for automakers.
[+] [-] cowmix|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] marc__1|5 years ago|reply
'Over the past few weeks, we have been upgrading our Freemont Factory to launch the new Model S and Model X'
'Gaga Shanghai has demonstrated the ability to sustain Model 3 production at or above a run rate of 250,000/year'
[1]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020....
[2]https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_...
[+] [-] Symmetry|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] agumonkey|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 11thEarlOfMar|5 years ago|reply
On the one hand, Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point, likely sooner than we imagine. On the other hand, this is exactly the outcome Musk wanted to see: Getting the major incumbents to commit to BEV product lines and developing a serious transitional market.
[0] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/06/top-electric-models-in-...
[+] [-] rcMgD2BwE72F|5 years ago|reply
They're building a factory in Berlin already, they're importing as many cars from China and the US as they can, and they're selling everything they make.
What else do they need to do?
[+] [-] jermaustin1|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wongarsu|5 years ago|reply
Judging by this great report [1] you would expect a worldwide market of about 800k EVs in Q1 2021, with Tesla and Wuling as the most significant producers.
1: https://insideevs.com/news/498088/global-plugin-car-sales-fe...
[+] [-] neogodless|5 years ago|reply
Globally, about 56 million cars sold in 2020 (or about 14 million per quarter), down from 65.5 million in 2019.
China was the largest market with nearly 20 million sales, followed by the United States with 14.5 million.
Comparing the estimate of 14 million per quarter, Tesla hitting 183,000 sales would account for 1.31% of global sales. That is small, but also given how many manufacturers they are, it's by no means insignificant (and of course leading in EVs.)
Globally, Toyota sold 8.7 million cars (2.17m / quarter) or 15.5% of global sales.
In the US, GM sold 2.5 million cars (637k / quarter) in the U.S. or 17.6% of US sales.
[0] https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2020-full-ye...
[+] [-] alexlmiller|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cowmix|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Black101|5 years ago|reply