[hamhamed]

I've been spending almost every weekend for the past few months trying to break a crypto crash game (called bustabit) using ML. While I'm also dealing with probabilities, my challenge has to do with the limited data I'm dealt with even though their API is public.

In horse racing, you have access to so much shit that you can feed into the AI, like rider statistics, horse performance, horse attributes, etc. In my case, I only have the game/round number and the bust result (red or green). From thereon, I have to create many other variables (aka featuring engineering) like round win/lose streaks, moving averages, MACD, etc. I can also feed in what and if other players are currently betting for the round or not.

Currently, the house always wins. And their game is rigged so they have that 1% advantage over you. However, so far with my AI, I've came with enough confidence score to win as long as my bot plays 0.001% of the games.. which isn't declared victory since those blackswan games happen once every 3 weeks.

There's also another way to beat it without using any ML, just plain old fibbonaci martingale - requires around 10k starting money for error margin but it ends up always ahead of the house.. That's just a math way to beat it and not very fun :)

It's probably crazy of me to even attempt to predict randomness, but there's something intriguing when you mix big data and ML with forced randomness. Again, they have to keep forcing the odds to be 49% vs 51%..

[kqr]

Do I get the premise of the game right if I think you either lose all of your wager or get some random odds on it?

But with the house take at 1 %, isn't it a negative sum game and therefore impossible to beat in the long run?

And even if you could play it at fair odds, wouldn't the solution simply be the Kelly bet?

I'm struggling to see under what circumstances it is an interesting game to work, so I suspect I'm missing some important nuance.

[eru]

I found their website at https://www.bustabit.com/

Seems like bankrolling the bank, a feature they offer, is much more lucrative. Assuming they don't run away with your money.

[phyalow]

Can you email me, see profile