[arielm]

Another thing to keep in mind is how often these will be seen. Right now ~10K apps ask (or, try to ask).

So the odds of seeing the prompt in the wild aren’t too high unless you’re a Facebook user.

But as more apps show the prompt and it’ll become very common all you need is to agree once and you’ll then be more likely to opt in more than opt out, in my opinion.

I expect that 10k to 10x before the end of the year. Even then, 100k apps out of ~2M isn’t all that many, so it might take a long time for advertisers to regain the kind of access they had pre ATT.

[noxToken]

10k out of 2M isn't a good metric, because there will be a long tail of niche, unpopular clone (AKA a student's first to do list app), shovelware or spyware apps that most people will never encounter. If the list of apps is sorted by users, I'm sure the top 50 will have a massive reach.

ESPN, Hulu and Cruncyroll issue thepop up. Consider the reach of those 3 apps alone compared to the bottom 500k.

[arielm]

Yes and no.

Yes, 10K isn’t a lot, and the big apps are included in the 10K.

But… companies like Google Need as many apps as possible to funnel data to them so they can profile _everyone_, and they do that with their “free” services like Firebase (aka Google Analytics), in addition to ads.

To Firebase it’s all about scale (aka visibility) and not specific groups.