There’s a presumption that this is isolated to low-skill workers enjoying high unemployment benefits. However, stimulus has also greatly benefitted anyone owning assets which are more often high skilled workers.
The incentives are the same. If you have enough money you can quit working if you want.
A little pay bump isn’t going to bring someone out of early retirement and a high skill job can’t be filled by anyone.
Still quite an exaggeration, since most of the (ex) service workers I know are going to coffee bars and sharing joints. I’ve seen a few teachers unions get busted for coordinating vacations abroad while they boycotted in-class learning because it was an “unnecessary risk”.
The reality is, a lot of people are abusing the temporary safety nets to avoid what they see as inconveniences because it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and probably won’t come back to bite them.
The article doesn't say it of course, but the big question is what happens when the government keeps the dole, at least past midterm elections?
There's tremendous automation happening right now, and it'll accelerate, to the point where if the government waits 2 years, a good portion of those jobs likely won't exist, and the government will never be able to get rid of the dole.
It's kind of like quantitative easing infinity, except for the poors.
Well we’ve had QE and tax cuts for the rich for a good long while now, pendulum swinging the other way feels warranted.
You know what’s crazy? The solution is very simple. Pay workers more. The minimum wage is not a living wage. Heavily fine companies that attempt to run models that cannot support paying a living wage. The uninformed think that this will stop innovation, but it will only slow it, and that’s OK. Innovation is fueled by need or greed, and the VCs who complain about mandated high wages will indeed be greedy enough to fund the next batch of companies, because even if your returns go from 1000x to 100x (when you win), the returns still beat a lot of other investment vehicles.
We already have the dole it's known as food stamps, wic, ssi, government subsidies, etc.
Instead of padding the pockets of Walmart or McDonald's by supplementing their labor costs, why don't we give the money straight to the people. Then force these companies to pay the true cost of their discounted labor.
The United States is already at the point where a senatorial candidate campaigned on ‘vote for me and you’ll get that $2,000 check’. You can Google Raphael Warnock’s exact phrasing on the campaign ad but that was basically the pitch in the GA runoffs.
When I stated working remote (long before the pandemic) it made me think differently about what I work on and with who. As things slowly open back up, I bet a lot of people are reassessing their lives now that they have had some time to see things in a different light.
Also, wild speculation...it's almost summer and why would you (if you really didn't need to) go get a job when you could stretch things out and try to enjoy this summer when the last one was taken from you.
For all the talk of "lazy Europeans", I hope this has opened some Americans eyes. It's insane to me we don't have the equivalent of their summer "holiday". We work hard enough the rest of the year, taking a break should be a badge of honor, not shame.
I agree. Sadly I think some fraction of these people, maybe many tens of thousands, will end up homeless or opting for “van life” as a result of their reorientation to risk.
If there are unfilled jobs, employers should raise wages and increase benefits. If there are not unfilled jobs, people without wealth should receive support from a social safety net.
It's a labor/motivation shortage for the lowest paying jobs, but more troubling is the growing skills deficit:
> “Clearly, there are industries in both manufacturing and services that are eager to beef up staff as the pace of economic activity accelerates. But those efforts are being frustrated. In some cases, the problem is a mismatch in skills. You can’t train a one-time courier on a bike to become an IT specialist overnight,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
As a hiring manager, it's become much more difficult to find even mediocre engineers over the past three years, and I don't believe it's because the duds we interview would rather live off of unemployment.
Nobody wants shitty jobs with shitty pay - the vast majority of the jobs lost in the shutdown. This is especially true when it's better and easier to live off the government (don't bite my head off just yet). The cost of benefits like insurance is huge. For the people who lost low skill low pay jobs, the high paying jobs that can cover these benefits plus a very comfortable life are out of reach. Even the medium paying jobs are out of reach for many, and if they get them it's still a struggle. I know people who make more on unemployment with the extra amount than they did at their regular jobs.
It's a problem of hope. Why would I want to bust my ass to just barely make it? Thw powers that be can crush your progress at any point. I hate my job. Even though I'm in a high demand field and I make a decent amount (not even $100k), I still think about quitting or being fired and living on the government programs. It's because I have no hope that anything will get better. The political environment is not getting any better (in my opinion), I don't see a future at my job, I can't afford land, etc.
There is something bigger going on, Covid accelerated it. A lot of people are exhausted and lost hope and are giving up. From factory jobs going over seas to Cheap H1B labor replacing the US Tech worker. The Gov loves the corporations more than the people and the Corporations are running the Gov.
Even the military is having a hard time recruiting, why serve a country that doesn't love you....
A lot in this comment that I would like to understand. What is the source of this despair? You mention: low pay, undesirable job, inability to progress, and inability to afford land. What exactly is it about government programs that provide any of those? It seems the issue is entirely something else if the "solution" doesn't actually address the problems.
A lot of people are very derisive, and that's easy to do while sitting from a comfortable chair on a keyboard. but if you're taking a manual labor, you will suffer the consequences down the road, all that and without insurance.
And sure, clearly staring at the sun (or a screen) for hours on end isn't good for anyone's eyesight, but at least there's glasses.
A combination of women joining the labor force in the 70s-80s, globalization, growing population, and automation has weakened the demand for labor.
At some point the declining demand for labor and the growing costs of things will come to a head. The current system will not work. It seems like this pandemic could be the catalyst for facing this reality and finding a solution.
The demand for labor declined because we shipped it all overseas.
People say automation and that’s true, but automation doesn’t seem to be stopping China from lifting millions of people out of poverty and giving them jobs, so I’m not sure why the US can’t do it. If you have more automation that doesn't necessarily mean you have fewer jobs, it can also mean you make more things.
> At some point the declining demand for labor and the growing costs of things will come to a head. The current system will not work.
Declining demand for labor goes hand in hand with lower production costs (cheaper labor overseas and automation). That means lower costs of things, not higher. And if the costs of things were higher than what people could afford due to being underemployed, the demand drops, which puts even more negative pressure on prices.
It’s going down if you count from 2000 but up if you count from 2015. I’m not sure whether it makes more sense to look at the trend over the last 5 or 20 years but I think you must make an argument that one should pick the span that supports your thesis, rather than the one that contradicts it.
The only reason why the current situation is viable is because shipping by sea in containers is so cheap. Should this change due to conflict, or disease, the whole thing falls apart. Shortages within weeks. China will do fine, since they retained all the means of production at home. The big guy will do fine in his second home in the Virgin Islands. He has a backup plan. Do you?
China probably won’t do fine in that scenario. They need the US at least as much as the US needs them. Interesting lecture by Peter Zeihan on that topic: https://youtu.be/yttug-a3sWI
What the “don’t worry about spending” and “we can just print more money” folks don’t realize is there is a direct line between these policies and wealth inequality.
And yet, so many people seem to both support an easy money environment forever, but also oppose rising wealth inequality without realizing they are intrinsically linked.
> they largely blame the more generous unemployment payments and stimulus checks for making people less likely to take low-paying fast food and retail jobs again
This will be an interesting test case for the basic income gang. Especially now that some states are blocking the extra $ and we'll have stratified sample sets for comparison.
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all, By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul; But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy, And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
If you can break even on 50 to 80% salary in government benefits, and you work a low-skilled job that you can easily drop and find a new one, why would you go back to work? Let’s end extended unemployment and see if the desires of workers have changed.
The survey data she cites is pretty weak and seems to be the only real evidence:
>A Pew Research Center survey this year found that 66 percent of the unemployed had “seriously considered” changing their field of work, a far greater percentage than during the Great Recession. People who used to work in restaurants or travel are finding higher-paying jobs in warehouses or real estate, for example. Or they want a job that is more stable and less likely to be exposed to the coronavirus — or any other deadly virus down the road. Consider that grocery stores shed over 49,000 workers in April and nursing care facilities lost nearly 20,000.
Ya I keep seeing these kind of arguments, that something has "fundamentally changed" but I just don't believe it. Maybe just wishful thinking... In a year when the stimi stops/runs out, people will need money and will return to these jobs.
I was lucky enough to already have a partially remote job before the pandemic and it was already six figure paying. Now after the pandemic what few investments I had all blew up into the 7 figure range. I told my boss at our last one on one that once we are required to be back I'm putting in my two week notice. It's not because I don't want to work. It's because I don't want to work in the city where he chose to locate our office. I grew up, went to college, and spent my early career on the east coast so when covid hit I realized I'd be stuck there forever if I didn't gtfo now. So I did. I moved to Hawaii and I've never been healthier or more fit in my life. Going back to the east coast just to get seasonal depression for 5-6 months a year is just off the table now.
This whole thing has also shown me how working for a wage paycheck to paycheck even at six figures is basically slavery. You might get lucky and your 401k might grow in value but chances are you won't be able to retire till your 50s. It turns out that capital is everything.
Covid has shown us all that you might still die young so why work instead of enjoying life?
> This whole thing has also shown me how working for a wage paycheck to paycheck even at six figures is basically slavery.
I retired at 30 and have done nothing but travel the world developing open source software since then. I have little to no possessions, and nothing tying me to any geographic area aside from a preference for clean air and such.
To your point, in my travels I’ve rarely come across anyone working a job out of anything other than financial necessity. Only a small fraction of people seem to do what they do out of genuine passion. Much more often, artistic, well-natured people are toiling away on menial tasks for money because that’s what it takes for them to survive.
> It turns out that capital is everything.
The gains from this are disproportionately accruing to billionaires while most people add almost nothing to the total output in exchange for cash and at the cost of much of their waking hours. These bullshit jobs are costing people time they’ll never get back, for dubious societal gains in many cases, while also depleting us of creative energy on an unbelievable scale.
Meanwhile, because of the dog-eat-dog nature of our existence, it seems as if there are only two viable paths for most people to achieve “freedom”: either you can withdraw deep into the proverbial jungle, or exploit the underexploited. A staggering amount of what passes for “industry” today is essentially just strip mining our planet of its natural resources, and/or converting it to food in whichever way using as inhumane of a process as is allowed by our current legal systems. The remainder of profitable human activities are by and large facilitating the dominion’s continuity, or quaint distractions from our highly cancerous existence.
[+] [-] imapeopleperson|4 years ago|reply
There’s a presumption that this is isolated to low-skill workers enjoying high unemployment benefits. However, stimulus has also greatly benefitted anyone owning assets which are more often high skilled workers.
The incentives are the same. If you have enough money you can quit working if you want.
A little pay bump isn’t going to bring someone out of early retirement and a high skill job can’t be filled by anyone.
[+] [-] DougN7|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sp332|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] SwanRonson|4 years ago|reply
The reality is, a lot of people are abusing the temporary safety nets to avoid what they see as inconveniences because it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and probably won’t come back to bite them.
[+] [-] medium_burrito|4 years ago|reply
There's tremendous automation happening right now, and it'll accelerate, to the point where if the government waits 2 years, a good portion of those jobs likely won't exist, and the government will never be able to get rid of the dole.
It's kind of like quantitative easing infinity, except for the poors.
[+] [-] hardwaresofton|4 years ago|reply
You know what’s crazy? The solution is very simple. Pay workers more. The minimum wage is not a living wage. Heavily fine companies that attempt to run models that cannot support paying a living wage. The uninformed think that this will stop innovation, but it will only slow it, and that’s OK. Innovation is fueled by need or greed, and the VCs who complain about mandated high wages will indeed be greedy enough to fund the next batch of companies, because even if your returns go from 1000x to 100x (when you win), the returns still beat a lot of other investment vehicles.
[+] [-] asciimov|4 years ago|reply
Instead of padding the pockets of Walmart or McDonald's by supplementing their labor costs, why don't we give the money straight to the people. Then force these companies to pay the true cost of their discounted labor.
[+] [-] BuyMyBitcoins|4 years ago|reply
The dole is here to stay.
[+] [-] SpicyLemonZest|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nerdponx|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pilsetnieks|4 years ago|reply
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income
[+] [-] pelagic_sky|4 years ago|reply
Also, wild speculation...it's almost summer and why would you (if you really didn't need to) go get a job when you could stretch things out and try to enjoy this summer when the last one was taken from you.
[+] [-] tw04|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] splithalf|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cm2187|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] standardUser|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] josephcsible|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] darkhorse22|4 years ago|reply
> “Clearly, there are industries in both manufacturing and services that are eager to beef up staff as the pace of economic activity accelerates. But those efforts are being frustrated. In some cases, the problem is a mismatch in skills. You can’t train a one-time courier on a bike to become an IT specialist overnight,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
As a hiring manager, it's become much more difficult to find even mediocre engineers over the past three years, and I don't believe it's because the duds we interview would rather live off of unemployment.
[+] [-] lostmsu|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] petermcneeley|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] myko|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] giantg2|4 years ago|reply
It's a problem of hope. Why would I want to bust my ass to just barely make it? Thw powers that be can crush your progress at any point. I hate my job. Even though I'm in a high demand field and I make a decent amount (not even $100k), I still think about quitting or being fired and living on the government programs. It's because I have no hope that anything will get better. The political environment is not getting any better (in my opinion), I don't see a future at my job, I can't afford land, etc.
[+] [-] hourislate|4 years ago|reply
Even the military is having a hard time recruiting, why serve a country that doesn't love you....
[+] [-] hervature|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] darkhorse22|4 years ago|reply
Why is that? It sounds like you're well positioned for career improvement.
[+] [-] nmz|4 years ago|reply
And sure, clearly staring at the sun (or a screen) for hours on end isn't good for anyone's eyesight, but at least there's glasses.
[+] [-] jameslk|4 years ago|reply
Here's some graphs to make the point:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
We can see the labor participation rate has been declining since early 2000.
Even more so for men once women joined the labor force:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001
But even for women this has gone sideways:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002
The productivity vs pay gap illustrates a stagnant growth in wages even as the value of goods and services grows: https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap
A combination of women joining the labor force in the 70s-80s, globalization, growing population, and automation has weakened the demand for labor.
At some point the declining demand for labor and the growing costs of things will come to a head. The current system will not work. It seems like this pandemic could be the catalyst for facing this reality and finding a solution.
[+] [-] imgabe|4 years ago|reply
People say automation and that’s true, but automation doesn’t seem to be stopping China from lifting millions of people out of poverty and giving them jobs, so I’m not sure why the US can’t do it. If you have more automation that doesn't necessarily mean you have fewer jobs, it can also mean you make more things.
[+] [-] jackcosgrove|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mizzack|4 years ago|reply
Good news, everyone! That's exactly what's going to happen.
https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset
[+] [-] bitshiftfaced|4 years ago|reply
Declining demand for labor goes hand in hand with lower production costs (cheaper labor overseas and automation). That means lower costs of things, not higher. And if the costs of things were higher than what people could afford due to being underemployed, the demand drops, which puts even more negative pressure on prices.
[+] [-] dan-robertson|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] neonate|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dukeofdoom|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] christophilus|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nostromo|4 years ago|reply
And yet, so many people seem to both support an easy money environment forever, but also oppose rising wealth inequality without realizing they are intrinsically linked.
[+] [-] tamaharbor|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aaomidi|4 years ago|reply
Don't work = be poor
Why work?
[+] [-] npteljes|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jb775|4 years ago|reply
This will be an interesting test case for the basic income gang. Especially now that some states are blocking the extra $ and we'll have stratified sample sets for comparison.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] Alenycus|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seibelj|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] refurb|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fullshark|4 years ago|reply
>A Pew Research Center survey this year found that 66 percent of the unemployed had “seriously considered” changing their field of work, a far greater percentage than during the Great Recession. People who used to work in restaurants or travel are finding higher-paying jobs in warehouses or real estate, for example. Or they want a job that is more stable and less likely to be exposed to the coronavirus — or any other deadly virus down the road. Consider that grocery stores shed over 49,000 workers in April and nursing care facilities lost nearly 20,000.
[+] [-] seiferteric|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hparadiz|4 years ago|reply
This whole thing has also shown me how working for a wage paycheck to paycheck even at six figures is basically slavery. You might get lucky and your 401k might grow in value but chances are you won't be able to retire till your 50s. It turns out that capital is everything.
Covid has shown us all that you might still die young so why work instead of enjoying life?
[+] [-] atweiden|4 years ago|reply
I retired at 30 and have done nothing but travel the world developing open source software since then. I have little to no possessions, and nothing tying me to any geographic area aside from a preference for clean air and such.
To your point, in my travels I’ve rarely come across anyone working a job out of anything other than financial necessity. Only a small fraction of people seem to do what they do out of genuine passion. Much more often, artistic, well-natured people are toiling away on menial tasks for money because that’s what it takes for them to survive.
> It turns out that capital is everything.
The gains from this are disproportionately accruing to billionaires while most people add almost nothing to the total output in exchange for cash and at the cost of much of their waking hours. These bullshit jobs are costing people time they’ll never get back, for dubious societal gains in many cases, while also depleting us of creative energy on an unbelievable scale.
Meanwhile, because of the dog-eat-dog nature of our existence, it seems as if there are only two viable paths for most people to achieve “freedom”: either you can withdraw deep into the proverbial jungle, or exploit the underexploited. A staggering amount of what passes for “industry” today is essentially just strip mining our planet of its natural resources, and/or converting it to food in whichever way using as inhumane of a process as is allowed by our current legal systems. The remainder of profitable human activities are by and large facilitating the dominion’s continuity, or quaint distractions from our highly cancerous existence.
[+] [-] PascLeRasc|4 years ago|reply