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temp20160423 | 4 years ago

The last sentence is only true if you believe the Fed will actually sell back the assets. When I look at this chart, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL, I have very little confidence that the Fed will sell a meaningful portion back (notice the Fed already gave up BEFORE covid when we supposedly had one of the best economies in recent times). In fact, it looks to me that the assets held by the Fed are growing exponentially and definitely growing faster than our productivity growth.

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imtringued|4 years ago

2018 to 2019 was a 15% decrease of the Fed's balance sheet. That was actually quite a decent pace.

At $0.6 trillion/year it would take 12 years to unwind the 2021 balance sheet. That's worrying but not impossible.