[TedPetrou]

Seychelles has vaccinated 68.5k of its 98.5k population. [Around 25% of its total population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Seychelles) are 0-17, so maybe 75k max 18+. Over 90% of adults are vaccinated and less than 7k remain unvaccinated.

Seychelles just reported 1800 cases for the last week or 1.8% of its total population. This equates to 6 million cases in the US or more than 800k per day, a number never approached.

> It looks like the people testing positive in the Seychelles are mostly unvaccinated

It stated that 1/3 were in fully vaccinated and the rest were in partially vaccinated or unvaccinated. There are now 60k that are fully vaccinated, leaving just 8.5k first-dose only. The article was written before the 1800 cases dropped a couple days ago.

More data is needed for hospitalizations and deaths, but as it stands now, it does not look convincing for the vaccine. It's likely more cases will continue to come over the next few weeks, even more than the record breaking prior week.

Seychelles and other island nations that had no major covid outbreaks before vaccine launch (only 500 cases prior and 7.5k since) are the best real life settings we have for vaccine efficacy. For much of the rest of the world, a huge number of people were already infected before vaccine launch, making it difficult to separate out the effectiveness of the vaccine.

[DiogenesKynikos]

Unless you calculate an actual efficacy, the above numbers are not very informative. What efficacy is implied by the numbers?