The Belarus plane hijack is a small reminder why it's generally not a good idea to let governments know who is going to where. I'm not sure why governments that like to think of themselves as democratic don't see the risks.
I'd made a similar point following the assassination of Kim Jung-nam in 2017:
Travel and hospitality databases are widely accessible and shared amongst a tremendous number of organisations. State intelligence organisations might readily have access through their own state-run airline, or through private operations or plants within same. Similarly for terrorist, narco-criminal, money-laundering, or other organisations. Financial, banking, and payment-processing systems, only slightly less so. A P.I. license or position on a fraud or abuse desk at a major online retailer, or any skip-tracing agency, can have access to such information.
Note that your own threat model may not include possibilities which put others at risk.
(In fairness, it appear that Protasevich was followed onto the plane itself, suggesting that in-flight availability of manifests played little role. The question of what pre-flight intelligence methods were employed remains open.)
I don't see this happening though. It would seem reasonable to limit the countries seeing the passenger list to those countries that the plane is taking off from/leaving though.
You are right, but yeah, wouldn't help in this case. This guy informed people in his telegram channels where he was going, and he was followed by KGB spies in Athens airport who verified he was going onboard and even tried to make photos of his documents.
Something similar has happened with the Thai government - seizing people from transiting flights to apply Thai lese-majeste laws to foreigners who were not expecting to end up in Thailand.
>The Belarus plane hijack is a small reminder why it's generally not a good idea to let governments know who is going to where. I'm not sure why governments that like to think of themselves as democratic don't see the risks
This is absolutely true. No mater what, there WILL be abuse.
It's also what worries me most about the normalization of "COVID passports". What's to stop me from putting a bounty on the owner of COVIDpass abcxyz? All you'll have to do is use an alternate scanning app and upload a video of you suckerpunching the owner of COVIDpass abcxyz to receive a 5k prize.
If a government cares enough to deploy fighter jets to hijack a plane like this in violation of every international norm, you can be sure it has the resources to know where you are at all times regardless of how tightly those databases are locked down.
Just a story from the history. Plane of Bolivian president was forced to land in Viena in July 2013 in order to search for Snowden after France and Portugal forbid it flying through their air space. I strongly belive that Russian propaganda will use that incident as a leverage.
To be clear, I highly despise the Belarusian regime and I'm in full support of opposition. I could only hope that EU will do something in return but it looks like it's a standard way of handling the people politically considered to be terrorists. It's not the way it should be done neither by Belarus nor especially by US/NATO if they want to hold the peacekeepers flag. Otherwise it's just double standards and politics.
This is very bold move. They want his network, that's why this young man is so valuable. I hope the international community will act quickly, that his contacts know what they are doing and are prepared for this situation. Because he's facing torture, and the fact his girlfriend was arrested with him will make things worse. I don't know what to do
Very accurate description IMO. I hope no EU company flies over Belarus after that. In retrospect this is an unacceptable risk.
PS: Which also brings to mind the downed Malaysian flight when flying over Russian-friendly Ukraine. I hope that airlines also have these areas in their no-fly lists.
I would think launching fighter jets to force the landing of a passenger plane is considered an act of aggression. How will that play out with NATO, of which the origin/destination countries are a part of?
Similar incident: On October 21, 2016, Belavia flight B2-840 from Kyiv to Minsk (of all places) was told to immediately return to the departure airport, or fighter jets would be scrambled [1]. They were only 50km from their destination country's airspace. After the plane landed in Kyiv, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies escorted a passenger off the plane.
Not quite the same, of course (no third-party country involved and passenger in question was released shortly thereafter), but forcing commercial airliners to land seems to be somewhat more common than I thought.
FYI technically it wasn’t a forced landing by fighter jets. “Someone” reported there’s a bomb on the plane while they were in the Belarus airspace, hence they did an emergency landing in Minsk.
So while we know who “someone” is and that it’s all planned in advance (the journalist reported that he was followed minutes before take-off), technically speaking the safety protocols were followed, and when landed they arrested a wanted man once he was on their soil.
This reminds me of force landing Bolivian president’s plane in the EU flying from Moscow when they thought Edward Snowden was on the plane.
This article and others report that the plane was instructed to land in Minsk, even though Vilnius was closer. That doesn’t sound like following safety protocols to me
From the article: "Belta, the state-owned news agency in Belarus, said Mr Lukashenko had personally given the order for the plane to land in Minsk following the bomb alert, and that a MiG-29 fighter jet had been despatched to accompany the Ryanair plane."
> “Someone” reported there’s a bomb on the plane while they were in the Belarus airspace
The article doesn't say that the bomb threat claim came from anyone on the plane. Rather, it implies the pilots were informed of the alleged threat by Belarus air traffic control as the pretext for demanding that the plane divert.
Based on the current facts being reported, it seems pretty clear what is going on here.
This seems a lot more aggressive than what happened with the Bolivian President. The man who had tasked himself with harboring Snowden made everyone think Snowden was on the plane and the US presumably influenced some allies to not allow him to be transited through their airspace. That doesn’t seem totally unreasonable to me. That’s not to say that I side with the US govt in general regarding Snowden.
> when landed they arrested a wanted man once he was on their soil.
Did he get on their soil though? Usually, you stay in the international zone when between flights, so, here, the passengers should not have entered Belarus. Do we know what happened in the airport?
How long the democratic nations of Europe permit an autocratic regime in their bosom is an open question…if I was Belarus I’d keep my fucking head down.
The thing about a destabilised world order is that it works both ways.
Belarus is backed by Russia. Russia is strong enough to make any attempt of invading Belarus to cost a lot of lives. And invading Russia itself is out of question because of nuclear response. That's how I see that geopolitical situation. War is very unlikely in my opinion.
>How long the democratic nations of Europe permit an autocratic regime in their bosom...
There have been autocratic regimes in the region throughout recorded history. It's the "democratic nations of Europe" bit which is novel. I guess gentle pressure will be applied and hopefully when Lukashenko and Putin die or otherwise go we'll get someone more reasonable.
So I guess the Belarus government would try to claim whatever agreement caused this part:
>1.2.1 Pilots-in-command of civil aircraft should be aware that interception may take place in the event that military,customs or police authorities of a State:
>...
>d) suspect that an aircraft is engaged in illegal flight and/or transportation of illicit goods or persons, inconsistent withthe aims of the Chicago Convention and contrary to the laws of said State.
>...
I note there there is nothing in there about a bomb threat. So the bomb threat was likely a separate gambit that didn't work.
This seems to be quite insane either way. If an interception goes bad the result could be the destruction of the civil aircraft. Not worth the potential risk, no matter who might be on the flight.
It's probably a calculated gambit, they bet the pilot would budge and follow the fighter.
If the pilot didn't I doubt they'd actually shoot the plane down, but that's a bet that they took and won. The pilot obviously chose the safer option for himself and almost everyone onboard.
I don’t travel much anymore, but when I did I definitely made a point to select routes that avoided flying over basketcase countries. With the number of planes that have been shot down over war zones, or things like this, it’s often feasible.
The bigger issue here is... what can Belarusian people do?
It seems nowadays any people acquiring power in a smaller country can only care about keeping this power, and nothing else.
And any revolutionary movement against dictators in these smaller countries can only hope for the replacement of one oppressive regime with another potentially more oppressive regime.
It's a lose-lose situation. And it makes me extremely sad.
[+] [-] dredmorbius|4 years ago|reply
The Belarus plane hijack is a small reminder why it's generally not a good idea to let governments know who is going to where. I'm not sure why governments that like to think of themselves as democratic don't see the risks.
-- Alexander Bochmann https://mastodon.infra.de/@galaxis/106285985254850170
I'd made a similar point following the assassination of Kim Jung-nam in 2017:
Travel and hospitality databases are widely accessible and shared amongst a tremendous number of organisations. State intelligence organisations might readily have access through their own state-run airline, or through private operations or plants within same. Similarly for terrorist, narco-criminal, money-laundering, or other organisations. Financial, banking, and payment-processing systems, only slightly less so. A P.I. license or position on a fraud or abuse desk at a major online retailer, or any skip-tracing agency, can have access to such information.
https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/5ud243/data_ar...
What is your threat model?
Note that your own threat model may not include possibilities which put others at risk.
(In fairness, it appear that Protasevich was followed onto the plane itself, suggesting that in-flight availability of manifests played little role. The question of what pre-flight intelligence methods were employed remains open.)
[+] [-] stjohnswarts|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anovikov|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rodgerd|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thepangolino|4 years ago|reply
This is absolutely true. No mater what, there WILL be abuse.
It's also what worries me most about the normalization of "COVID passports". What's to stop me from putting a bounty on the owner of COVIDpass abcxyz? All you'll have to do is use an alternate scanning app and upload a video of you suckerpunching the owner of COVIDpass abcxyz to receive a 5k prize.
[+] [-] lovecg|4 years ago|reply
Edit: for improved discourse as pointed out
[+] [-] MomoXenosaga|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zihotki|4 years ago|reply
To be clear, I highly despise the Belarusian regime and I'm in full support of opposition. I could only hope that EU will do something in return but it looks like it's a standard way of handling the people politically considered to be terrorists. It's not the way it should be done neither by Belarus nor especially by US/NATO if they want to hold the peacekeepers flag. Otherwise it's just double standards and politics.
[+] [-] slim|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stelliosk|4 years ago|reply
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-mini...
[+] [-] tpmx|4 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1396566441370001413
The outrageous and illegal behaviour of the regime in Belarus will have consequences.
Those responsible for the #Ryanair hijacking must be sanctioned.
Journalist Roman Protasevich must be released immediately.
EUCO will discuss tomorrow action to take.
[+] [-] one2three4|4 years ago|reply
PS: Which also brings to mind the downed Malaysian flight when flying over Russian-friendly Ukraine. I hope that airlines also have these areas in their no-fly lists.
[+] [-] echoradio|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cblconfederate|4 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/RyanairPress/status/1396543331878981632
[+] [-] maze-le|4 years ago|reply
I wonder what would have happened if they just delayed until they were in lithuanian airspace.
EDIT: just realized there were fighter jets involved...
[+] [-] andreasley|4 years ago|reply
Not quite the same, of course (no third-party country involved and passenger in question was released shortly thereafter), but forcing commercial airliners to land seems to be somewhat more common than I thought.
[1] https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/378383.html
[+] [-] GekkePrutser|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anotheryou|4 years ago|reply
- Flight EU to EU
- fake bomb threat
- possibly forced to divert to minsk airport by a fighter jet (wasn't the nearest airport)
- potential death penalty for targeted journalist
[+] [-] HatchedLake721|4 years ago|reply
So while we know who “someone” is and that it’s all planned in advance (the journalist reported that he was followed minutes before take-off), technically speaking the safety protocols were followed, and when landed they arrested a wanted man once he was on their soil.
This reminds me of force landing Bolivian president’s plane in the EU flying from Moscow when they thought Edward Snowden was on the plane.
[+] [-] tbenst|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ptx|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mrandish|4 years ago|reply
The article doesn't say that the bomb threat claim came from anyone on the plane. Rather, it implies the pilots were informed of the alleged threat by Belarus air traffic control as the pretext for demanding that the plane divert.
Based on the current facts being reported, it seems pretty clear what is going on here.
[+] [-] rdslw|4 years ago|reply
Plane crew change squawk code to intercepted (7700) not 7500 which would indicate terrorist act.
What happened is clear even before crew and passengers start giving press interviews in Vilnius.
And please do not compare it to Bolivian case, then crew decided (to land) and was not put under duress by fighter plane.
[+] [-] bandyaboot|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anotheryou|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] slim|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ernesth|4 years ago|reply
Did he get on their soil though? Usually, you stay in the international zone when between flights, so, here, the passengers should not have entered Belarus. Do we know what happened in the airport?
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] amelius|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lotusmars|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] 1cvmask|4 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-23166146
[+] [-] pydry|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hyko|4 years ago|reply
How long the democratic nations of Europe permit an autocratic regime in their bosom is an open question…if I was Belarus I’d keep my fucking head down.
The thing about a destabilised world order is that it works both ways.
[+] [-] vbezhenar|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arcturus17|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwaway21_|4 years ago|reply
Maybe it took 30 years to become obvious to you but at least you got it - sadly that happened only when you ended being on a receiving end.
[+] [-] tim333|4 years ago|reply
There have been autocratic regimes in the region throughout recorded history. It's the "democratic nations of Europe" bit which is novel. I guess gentle pressure will be applied and hopefully when Lukashenko and Putin die or otherwise go we'll get someone more reasonable.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] sbelskie|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mike_d|4 years ago|reply
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2EpIuHXEAYf2I4?format=jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2FLf1MWQAEnMs6?format=jpg
[+] [-] alkonaut|4 years ago|reply
Total export sanctions to the west? They sell some fuel etc. and EU is a large trading partner.
[+] [-] upofadown|4 years ago|reply
* https://www.wing.com.ua/images/stories/library/ovd/9433.pdf
So I guess the Belarus government would try to claim whatever agreement caused this part:
>1.2.1 Pilots-in-command of civil aircraft should be aware that interception may take place in the event that military,customs or police authorities of a State:
>...
>d) suspect that an aircraft is engaged in illegal flight and/or transportation of illicit goods or persons, inconsistent withthe aims of the Chicago Convention and contrary to the laws of said State.
>...
I note there there is nothing in there about a bomb threat. So the bomb threat was likely a separate gambit that didn't work.
This seems to be quite insane either way. If an interception goes bad the result could be the destruction of the civil aircraft. Not worth the potential risk, no matter who might be on the flight.
[+] [-] Aperocky|4 years ago|reply
If the pilot didn't I doubt they'd actually shoot the plane down, but that's a bet that they took and won. The pilot obviously chose the safer option for himself and almost everyone onboard.
[+] [-] vbezhenar|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stelliosk|4 years ago|reply
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1161646/greek-foreign-mini...
[+] [-] spoonjim|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Shorel|4 years ago|reply
It seems nowadays any people acquiring power in a smaller country can only care about keeping this power, and nothing else.
And any revolutionary movement against dictators in these smaller countries can only hope for the replacement of one oppressive regime with another potentially more oppressive regime.
It's a lose-lose situation. And it makes me extremely sad.