This story continues to evolve and it's exciting to watch the new reporting come to light and slowly flesh out the details. The "lab escape hypothesis" was disregarded by many (if not most) media outlets as a conspiracy theory early on.
This feels so much like the Iraq "weapons of mass destruction" fiasco. Any time news outlets are credulously repeating the words of "government officials," you need to seriously devalue the reporting. Reporting isn't just being a mouthpiece for the state, and these outlets fail us when they express such a high degree of certainty before there's any independent verification of the facts.
Of course, everything you describe is still "circumstantial," and it's wise to remain skeptical. However, even if we somehow eventually confirm this was not a lab escape, there's absolutely no excuse for the certainty expressed by the NYT et al in their early reporting (which is true for so much of the other COVID-19 media coverage - the media did a terrible job of expressing uncertainty with very incomplete information throughout the entire affair).
> Beijing purposefully destroyed DNA evidence, and obliterated the team who first sequenced the CoVID genome
In civil trials there is the principle of “adverse inference”. When the defendant has either destroyed evidence or else has not produced evidence they would have been reasonably expected to have, the jury is instructed to assume they are what the plaintiff characterizes them to be.
I think this principle holds in this case. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence for the Wuhan lab leak theory. The Chinese government has destroyed a lot of evidence and host gone to great lengths to keep documents and people away from investigators.
Based on all this, I think the preponderance of evidence is in favor of it being a lab leak.
> 1st response to CoVID occurrence was certainly in Wuhan
> The closest wild strain of CoVID happens in bats living thousand kilometres from Wuhan
That's weak evidence to claim that the lab hypothesis is more likely or even just to claim that the virus in humans originates from Wuhan.
Wuhan is a transport hub within China. In relation to dates it might be worth taking into account that hundreds of millions of Chinese travel around the country in early October and that the outbreak in Wuhan was detected in November/December. Coincidence? maybe, maybe not.
Additionally, we can also look at SARS (i.e. SARS-Cov-1, while Covid-19 is SARS-Cov-2): That epidemic started with an outbreak in Guangdong province in November 2002 (again, note the relative proximity with early October). Since then the origin of the virus has been traced to a colony of bats in Yunnan province [1] (perhaps also worth noting that this took 15 years). If you look at the map that is quite far away (1000+ km) and domestic transport networks have vastly improved since then.
Based on this, I don't see why the exact same scenario as the beginning of SARS would not be the more likely explanation.
In my opinion it’s like Japanese government announcements. They’re telegraphed by rumors and hearsay for quite a while before they’re actually announced.
It’s just a matter of time here. The question is mostly what to do with the information once it’s confirmed.
"The Coronavirus might have been spreading quietly in humans for years, or even decades, without causing a detectable outbreak – Dr Francis Collins, Director, The National Institutes of Health."
https://johnmenadue.com/who-had-covid-first/
> The Wuhan Institute hasn’t shared raw data, safety logs and lab records on its extensive work with coronaviruses in bats, which many consider the most likely source of the virus.
Nevertheless, the gain of function research with coronaviruses has been documented in the peer-reviewed literature.
The lack of new information from the Wuhan Institute, despite its longstanding research activities, is probably the most compelling evidence in support of the lab escape hypothesis.
If the evidence pointed elsewhere, it would be released. The most likely explanation is that the Institute's fingerprints are all over this thing.
The second most compelling evidence is that to date the reservoir species has not been found.
@dang, just wanted to say thank you for providing related threads, and also thank you for your even-handed moderation even on items you might disagree with; your care really shows on contentious threads and certainly elevates the level of discourse on HN.
Washington Examiner does not have the pedigree of a NYT but the writer discussed in that piece wrote for NYT and Science. I think it is a topic is noxious hence I will flag it thing. :shrug:
There are numerous reasons why we need a proper investigation into this. If this came out of WIV, we need to determine exactly why these bat coronaviruses were being studied with regards to human ACE2.
This ACE2 binding is causing numerous issues, including damage to human heart, lung, kidney, and pancreatic cell death.
This is serious stuff. If anyone is looking at the "low" mortality rate, they are missing the big picture.
Role of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in COVID-19
>we need to determine exactly why these bat coronaviruses were being studied
Why do we need evidence of why a lab would do research in viruses that is a danger to people in the country? It's pretty self-explanatory. ACE2 isn't specific to SARS-CoV-2 as your own links says.
thowaway959125 says> "it would be great if we took this opportunity to actually end biological weapons research globally."
The genii is out of the bottle so ending biological weapons research will never happen. If we aren't hit by a nation-state using biological warfare then we'll be hit by someone who does biochem in his garage for fun.
The best strategy is to advance the research while taking such steps as creating super-vaccines to make this type of biowarfare obsolete:
If a new variant of Ebola suddenly showed up in Atlanta, Georgia. Lots of people would immediately jump to the US / CDC having a leak or being responsible. And they would do that just based on geography. This has alot more smoke than just geography.
> If a new variant of Ebola suddenly showed up in Atlanta, Georgia. Lots of people would immediately jump to the US / CDC having a leak or being responsible.
In part, presumably, because Ebola appearing in Atlanta would be extraordinarily unusual. East Asia has a history of novel respiratory diseases, the same way that other parts of the world have a history of mosquito-borne blood diseases.
Put another way: everything we know so far is circumstantial, and some pieces of circumstantial evidence are (or would be) stronger than others. An Ebola outbreak next to a BSL 4 lab in the United States would be a significantly stronger piece of circumstantial evidence than a coronavirus outbreak in a transportation hub city in East Asia.
> according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.
Here's the US Dept of State "Fact Sheet" for Jan 15, 2021, which (previously disclosed) states much of the same info that WSJ is now just getting to 4+ months later and reporting it as "news": https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan...
The wsj article is more specific about the 3 hospital visits:
> several researchers at the lab, a center for the study of coronaviruses and other pathogens, became sick in autumn 2019 “with symptoms consistent with both Covid-19 and common seasonal illness.”
Whether or not COVID-19 was a half-baked biological weapon that was accidentally released, it would be great if we took this opportunity to actually end biological weapons research globally.
There’s no reason to think it’s more likely for China to screw up like this than the US, Russia, or the scores of other nations with similar programs.
Lot's of conspiracy theory people and no investigation ever people in here. I don't have any view on either side, but I think it's appropriate to investigate the possibility that the point of origin was from a lab. Honest question, for those who are against investigating this, what evidence would be needed to soften your view on that?
"with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses"
So 3 staff had gotten sick that flu season. Staff who work with infectious diseases and probably get every cough and cold checked out just in case. Seems pretty baseline average to me.
I have no idea if that's baseline average or not, personally I find the article frustrating.
There's no discussion of how many people work at the lab, how many staff visited hospital the year before that, whether it is in fact common for those staff to visit hospital when they have seasonal flu, or any other factors that would put this in any sort of context at all.
> and probably get every cough and cold checked out just in case
I work with infectious disease lab workers, and this isn't correct. None of them get every cold checked out just in case. Labs have no procedure for that. If anything, it's the opposite as they are confident of their immune system.
I’m guessing those political purposes were something like - “we don’t need an international conflict at the same time as trying to contend with this virus”. Or maybe even just a generic desire not to point fingers.
I’m not saying this isn’t bad - just that it’s pretty easy to understand why people would downregulate the lab leak hypothesis without anything special going on.
Does anyone recall/knows/can find an article (blog post) written by USA based investigative journalist that previously looked/reported on various problems/viruses/deaseases accidentally released by CDC and such?
I can't find the article/post now ... I recall it was written just as initial international investigation happened and released statement that "It's highly unlikely Covid-19 originated from Wuhan research center".
Guy mentioned things like lab technician carrying box with vials (with faded labels made using type writer) from one building to another and some of vials breaking (luckily not the one containing smallpox).
And there was also something about specific room/lab (I think in CDC) in new/rebuilt building where door didn't quite have a good seal - being fixed by duct tape.
And we'll the gist of it is - there's a long history even within USA/CDC to downplay/hide such accidents.
Here's something from the complete story from the Wall Street Journal (upon which Reuters based its report). They spoke to "officials" familiar with the report, one of whom specifically said it was "still in need of further investigation and additional corroboration."
One disease expert working with the WHO told CNN in February that the lab's researchers were tested and there was no evidence found of Covid antibodies.
The Wall Street Journal's original report (upon which this article is based) adds a really interesting detail about the timing of this story:
The disclosure of the number of researchers, the timing of their illnesses and their hospital visits come on the eve of a meeting of the World Health Organization’s decision-making body, which is expected to discuss the next phase of an investigation into COVID-19’s origins.
It is just me, or does it seem suspicious to anyone that this information existed, and wasn't reported in 2019 or 2020, or even in early 2021....but only just reached the press on the very evening of the WHO meeting.
I'm trying to keep an open mind about things, but I just find is so suspicious that the articles blaming China for Covid get upvoted so enthusiastically that people forget to post in the first 10 minutes before they hit the front page.
I'm not trying to reject any hypothesis but I do reject the fervor. And then people come out of the woodwork and try to defend the Wuhan Lab as the source with a load of coincidences that trend to conspiratorial thoughts. Like how we only know of a related Covid strain in bat hundreds of miles away from Wuhan... but bats are not endemic to just Yunnan where the closest Covid-19 match was from. Does Wuhan not have bats?
HN tends to upvote counternarratives. The Wuhan lab leak hypothesis was dismissed as either "debunked" or "discredited" in the mainstream media early, but now is considered possible, or even likely.
Some of the evidence is not co-incidence based, for example, the documents that appear to show the US was funding GOF research on bat coronaviruses at the WIV.
However, the reaction of the Chinese authorities (destroy all the evidence, block any investigation) is pretty much the definition of a conspiracy. I'm not sure it merits the term theory anymore - when the authorities are very visibly covering up all the evidence related to a critical event, that's what a conspiracy is. The only question now is what is the conspiracy hiding? Well, there's only one obvious possibility, isn't there?
[+] [-] baybal2|4 years ago|reply
- 1st response to CoVID occurrence was certainly in Wuhan.
- The closest wild strain of CoVID happens in bats living thousand kilometres from Wuhan
- Wuhan had two institutes which, on record, did gain of function experiments on bat coronaviruses
- Beijing purposefully destroyed DNA evidence, and obliterated the team who first sequenced the CoVID genome
- Chinese authorities were scrambling, and suppressing reporting as early as November, seemingly with a very good idea what they are up to.
[+] [-] JeremyNT|4 years ago|reply
This feels so much like the Iraq "weapons of mass destruction" fiasco. Any time news outlets are credulously repeating the words of "government officials," you need to seriously devalue the reporting. Reporting isn't just being a mouthpiece for the state, and these outlets fail us when they express such a high degree of certainty before there's any independent verification of the facts.
Of course, everything you describe is still "circumstantial," and it's wise to remain skeptical. However, even if we somehow eventually confirm this was not a lab escape, there's absolutely no excuse for the certainty expressed by the NYT et al in their early reporting (which is true for so much of the other COVID-19 media coverage - the media did a terrible job of expressing uncertainty with very incomplete information throughout the entire affair).
[+] [-] RcouF1uZ4gsC|4 years ago|reply
In civil trials there is the principle of “adverse inference”. When the defendant has either destroyed evidence or else has not produced evidence they would have been reasonably expected to have, the jury is instructed to assume they are what the plaintiff characterizes them to be.
I think this principle holds in this case. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence for the Wuhan lab leak theory. The Chinese government has destroyed a lot of evidence and host gone to great lengths to keep documents and people away from investigators.
Based on all this, I think the preponderance of evidence is in favor of it being a lab leak.
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|4 years ago|reply
> The closest wild strain of CoVID happens in bats living thousand kilometres from Wuhan
That's weak evidence to claim that the lab hypothesis is more likely or even just to claim that the virus in humans originates from Wuhan.
Wuhan is a transport hub within China. In relation to dates it might be worth taking into account that hundreds of millions of Chinese travel around the country in early October and that the outbreak in Wuhan was detected in November/December. Coincidence? maybe, maybe not.
Additionally, we can also look at SARS (i.e. SARS-Cov-1, while Covid-19 is SARS-Cov-2): That epidemic started with an outbreak in Guangdong province in November 2002 (again, note the relative proximity with early October). Since then the origin of the virus has been traced to a colony of bats in Yunnan province [1] (perhaps also worth noting that this took 15 years). If you look at the map that is quite far away (1000+ km) and domestic transport networks have vastly improved since then.
Based on this, I don't see why the exact same scenario as the beginning of SARS would not be the more likely explanation.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...
[+] [-] Aeolun|4 years ago|reply
It’s just a matter of time here. The question is mostly what to do with the information once it’s confirmed.
[+] [-] bwilli123|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AzzieElbab|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwawayboise|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hanklazard|4 years ago|reply
Edit: reference for cave samples
[+] [-] aazaa|4 years ago|reply
Nevertheless, the gain of function research with coronaviruses has been documented in the peer-reviewed literature.
The lack of new information from the Wuhan Institute, despite its longstanding research activities, is probably the most compelling evidence in support of the lab escape hypothesis.
If the evidence pointed elsewhere, it would be released. The most likely explanation is that the Institute's fingerprints are all over this thing.
The second most compelling evidence is that to date the reservoir species has not been found.
[+] [-] dang|4 years ago|reply
How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27184998 - May 2021 (235 comments)
More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27160898 - May 2021 (341 comments)
The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27071432 - May 2021 (537 comments)
Edit: also these:
Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26750452 - April 2021 (618 comments)
Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26540458 - March 2021 (985 comments)
The Lab Leak Hypothesis - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25640323 - Jan 2021 (229 comments)
[+] [-] actuator|4 years ago|reply
It seemed like a reputed source article of interest to a lot of folks here, so I was surprised.
[+] [-] skynet-9000|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] haltingproblem|4 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27089774
Washington Examiner does not have the pedigree of a NYT but the writer discussed in that piece wrote for NYT and Science. I think it is a topic is noxious hence I will flag it thing. :shrug:
[+] [-] thowaway959125|4 years ago|reply
This ACE2 binding is causing numerous issues, including damage to human heart, lung, kidney, and pancreatic cell death.
This is serious stuff. If anyone is looking at the "low" mortality rate, they are missing the big picture.
Role of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) in COVID-19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7356137/
The genetic structure of SARS‐CoV‐2 does not rule out a laboratory origin
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7744920/
SARS-CoV-2 infects human pancreatic β-cells and elicits β-cell impairment
https://www.cell.com/cell-metabolism/fulltext/S1550-4131(21)...
[+] [-] lamontcg|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Dah00n|4 years ago|reply
Why do we need evidence of why a lab would do research in viruses that is a danger to people in the country? It's pretty self-explanatory. ACE2 isn't specific to SARS-CoV-2 as your own links says.
[+] [-] giardini|4 years ago|reply
The genii is out of the bottle so ending biological weapons research will never happen. If we aren't hit by a nation-state using biological warfare then we'll be hit by someone who does biochem in his garage for fun.
The best strategy is to advance the research while taking such steps as creating super-vaccines to make this type of biowarfare obsolete:
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2021-04-21-...
But that also moves us one step closer to the "grey goo" scenario:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_goo
[+] [-] koheripbal|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] dzhiurgis|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] namelessoracle|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] woodruffw|4 years ago|reply
In part, presumably, because Ebola appearing in Atlanta would be extraordinarily unusual. East Asia has a history of novel respiratory diseases, the same way that other parts of the world have a history of mosquito-borne blood diseases.
Put another way: everything we know so far is circumstantial, and some pieces of circumstantial evidence are (or would be) stronger than others. An Ebola outbreak next to a BSL 4 lab in the United States would be a significantly stronger piece of circumstantial evidence than a coronavirus outbreak in a transportation hub city in East Asia.
[+] [-] dagav|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] cronix|4 years ago|reply
Here's the US Dept of State "Fact Sheet" for Jan 15, 2021, which (previously disclosed) states much of the same info that WSJ is now just getting to 4+ months later and reporting it as "news": https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan...
[+] [-] gentleman11|4 years ago|reply
> several researchers at the lab, a center for the study of coronaviruses and other pathogens, became sick in autumn 2019 “with symptoms consistent with both Covid-19 and common seasonal illness.”
[+] [-] hedora|4 years ago|reply
There’s no reason to think it’s more likely for China to screw up like this than the US, Russia, or the scores of other nations with similar programs.
[+] [-] nscalf|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] humanistbot|4 years ago|reply
So 3 staff had gotten sick that flu season. Staff who work with infectious diseases and probably get every cough and cold checked out just in case. Seems pretty baseline average to me.
[+] [-] xyzzy123|4 years ago|reply
There's no discussion of how many people work at the lab, how many staff visited hospital the year before that, whether it is in fact common for those staff to visit hospital when they have seasonal flu, or any other factors that would put this in any sort of context at all.
[+] [-] koheripbal|4 years ago|reply
I work with infectious disease lab workers, and this isn't correct. None of them get every cold checked out just in case. Labs have no procedure for that. If anything, it's the opposite as they are confident of their immune system.
[+] [-] eloff|4 years ago|reply
That would be unusual. Given the proximity to the covid19 outbreak, there's a high probability that's the first known cases of covid19 - if confirmed.
[+] [-] RickJWagner|4 years ago|reply
It's starting to look like a lot of people took big steps to spread false information, perhaps for political purposes.
[+] [-] zepto|4 years ago|reply
I’m not saying this isn’t bad - just that it’s pretty easy to understand why people would downregulate the lab leak hypothesis without anything special going on.
[+] [-] techcode|4 years ago|reply
I can't find the article/post now ... I recall it was written just as initial international investigation happened and released statement that "It's highly unlikely Covid-19 originated from Wuhan research center".
Guy mentioned things like lab technician carrying box with vials (with faded labels made using type writer) from one building to another and some of vials breaking (luckily not the one containing smallpox).
And there was also something about specific room/lab (I think in CDC) in new/rebuilt building where door didn't quite have a good seal - being fixed by duct tape.
And we'll the gist of it is - there's a long history even within USA/CDC to downplay/hide such accidents.
[+] [-] techcode|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] neonate|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DanBC|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MilnerRoute|4 years ago|reply
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-report-of-illnesses-at...
[+] [-] MilnerRoute|4 years ago|reply
Not disputing that. But it'd be nice to know who that partner was...
[+] [-] MilnerRoute|4 years ago|reply
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/23/politics/us-intelligence-repo...
It just seems weird to me that that's not a part of the media's discussion of this.
[+] [-] nikolay|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dazsnow|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MilnerRoute|4 years ago|reply
The disclosure of the number of researchers, the timing of their illnesses and their hospital visits come on the eve of a meeting of the World Health Organization’s decision-making body, which is expected to discuss the next phase of an investigation into COVID-19’s origins.
It is just me, or does it seem suspicious to anyone that this information existed, and wasn't reported in 2019 or 2020, or even in early 2021....but only just reached the press on the very evening of the WHO meeting.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-report-of-illnesses-at...
[+] [-] undersuit|4 years ago|reply
I'm not trying to reject any hypothesis but I do reject the fervor. And then people come out of the woodwork and try to defend the Wuhan Lab as the source with a load of coincidences that trend to conspiratorial thoughts. Like how we only know of a related Covid strain in bat hundreds of miles away from Wuhan... but bats are not endemic to just Yunnan where the closest Covid-19 match was from. Does Wuhan not have bats?
[+] [-] ErikVandeWater|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nimbleal|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thu2111|4 years ago|reply
Some of the evidence is not co-incidence based, for example, the documents that appear to show the US was funding GOF research on bat coronaviruses at the WIV.
However, the reaction of the Chinese authorities (destroy all the evidence, block any investigation) is pretty much the definition of a conspiracy. I'm not sure it merits the term theory anymore - when the authorities are very visibly covering up all the evidence related to a critical event, that's what a conspiracy is. The only question now is what is the conspiracy hiding? Well, there's only one obvious possibility, isn't there?
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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