[newintellectual]

"We show (using relatively conservative assumptions!) that across 50 of the top public software companies currently utilizing cloud infrastructure, an estimated $100B of market value is being lost among them due to cloud impact on margins — relative to running the infrastructure themselves."

That completely overlooks the actual benefit and the reasons driving cloud adoption, which he states early on and then fails to integrate here. The real cost/benefit analysis would take into account the amount of time, money, and opportunity cost saved by using a cloud in development, a critical time that determines whether there'll actually be a profitable company eventually. Optimizing the cloud costs is certainly important, but being able to spin up highly integrated systems on demand offsets a huge amount of time and capital during development.

A takeaway might be that, e.g., AWS, should offer even larger discounts for large scale operations in order to retain mature customers.