[a_zaydak]

The idea seems simple enough and the math to do these kinds of predictions is fairly straight forward unless there is some secret sauce under the hood that isn't obvious. I guess the value is slick UI / tool that was created around it.

One question that I do have about these types of tools... how does one evaluate how well it worked? I guess in the end as long as the timeline wasn't too far off then you call it a win.

I think a useful tool for project planning is not necessarily simulating possible time-lines (or a estimated window of time for the project to be completed) however to intelligently identify a set of critical tasks within the list which would have a high probability of totally blowing up your time line their deadlines are missed. In project management / scheduling there are often critical path items listed. However often these critical items are semi-arbitrarily picked by the PM and not backed by and deep insights.

[diiq]

About 5 years ago, when I first started using this method, I gave a talk about it that went into detail about how to do it, and the benefits. I did a live demo showing how well it modeled the variance even for really simple tasks like "take off your shoes and then put them back on".

The audience reaction was very positive, and I was pleased to have spread the word.

No one actually put it into action, though. It turns out if you need better estimation tools, you don't have time to make them -- you're in crunch time, because your estimates were bad.

The benefit is not so much slick UI -- that part is just me having fun. The benefit is that the work, however easy, is done.

If folks "steal" this idea because it's easy to implement, that's great! It's not a new idea, just an underused one. I just want to stop being hired onto contracts where the first thing I have to do is explain that the deadline is impossible.

I agree with you that a linear backlog is not sufficient to do really sophisticated planning -- Vistimo Quotes is a pared-down tool designed for easy adoption, because my kitchen-sink version requires too much buy-in for many teams.

[a_zaydak]

Sorry, I did not mean to imply that the only value that the creators had was making a nice UI. I truly meant it as a compliment. There is hard work involved in creating a product out of an idea. Seems like this will be a very useful product. Congrats to all of the people who have worked on it.

[Grustaf]

> The idea seems simple enough and the math to do these kinds of predictions is fairly straight forward

This describes about 99% of all successful companies. Exceedingly few companies invent truly new technology, and that's perfectly fine.