[marcescence]

A quote from datscilly, the top forecaster on metaculus:

>AGI may never happen, but the chance of that is small enough that adjusting for that here will not make a big difference (I put ~10% that AGI will not happen for 500 years or more, but it already matches that distribution quite well).[1]

[1]:https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin...