[g00gler]

A future where humans are no longer able to drive will have to be a decade or more after self driving arrives. It’s impossible for everyone to replace their non self driving cars immediately.

The used car market is a $150bn industry. A quick spot check found that a 2010 Honda Civic still costs between $5k and $10k depending on mileage, etc.

By the time that self driving is required by the NHSA or whatever body requires backup cameras and the like in new cars self driving will be standard.

A $20k Subaru will come with it out of the box, no add ons, just like a backup camera today.

[twiddling]

<A future where humans are no longer able to drive will have to be a decade or more after self driving arrives.

The National Driver's Association will arise with bumper stickers: "You can pry the steering wheel from my cold, dead hands"

[iso1210]

...38,000 times a year

As self driving becomes common, people won't bother with getting a driving license. States that do can actually put in decent levels of restrictions and competency to get one rather than letting an 16 year old with 5 minutes driving round a car park out on the road.

As fewer people get new licesnse, the demand for self-driving goes down as people who can drive the legacy way die off.

[jewel]

It might be possible to add self-driving features as an aftermarket upgrade. My 2013 model car already has drive-by-wire features (for automatic parallel parking), so it just needs more cameras and a replacement CPU. Heck, as a last resort you could put a robot in the driver's seat, physically operating the steering wheel and pedals.