[mario_lopez]

Agreed. Context matters here.

I'd hate for this to get blown out of proportion like the blood clot issue did, causing massive confidence declines in places all over, especially those struggling to roll out vaccines and keep their COVID cases under control.

Obviously, if the numbers are alarming, we must react accordingly.

[journey_16162]

I would like to see it uncovered. I did not sign up for heart inflammation and any potential future problems that may come out from it.

[dfsegoat]

They are alarming based on the measure of Observed vs. Expected cases.

Observed (O) cases in that age group: 283

Expected (E) cases in that age group: 10-102

So at least double the top of the confidence interval, for expected.

[fwip]

Right, but you've got to look at the absolute rate, which in this case is 283 out of 12 million, which is roughly 24 people per million.

You can look at the risk of what it's preventing (covid has already killed ~1700 people per million in the US), or compare to other activities and risk levels.

Relative risk comparisons between different activities are often not useful. For example, the risk of shark-death at the beach might look alarming when compared to my risk of shark-death-at-home, but actually it's vanishingly unlikely.

[shawabawa3]

but that's out of 13m doses, so ~200 out of 13m. I'm not sure how that compares to the expected harm from catching covid but I imagine the vaccine still ends up massively favourable