> Companies can get ahead of the shortfall with two strategic steps: establishing a dual career path that allows employees to grow, and investing in employee education and training.
This advice is really tired and has worn thin over the years.
The effects of the pandemic are not specific to the computer programming industry. Every industry in every area is experiencing a post-pandemic talent shortage, and the solution is going to be the same in every case: raise wages. Yes, it's really that simple. The last companies to realize this are going to be the last to solve their staffing problems.
But the programming world will be hit with a one-two punch. Devs don't spend money on expensive training courses and certs to gain skills; we just get hired somewhere and then pester our co-workers. This is why junior dev jobs are always on site. No one wants to hire a junior developer remotely. When all the software companies went full remote, they just took a break from hiring juniors (!).
Junior-level hires are charity, senior-level hires are desperation, and mid-level jobs drive the industry. In about 2 years, we'll be dealing not only with more demand for mid-level talent but less supply -- a lot less.
Companies need to raise wages and get back to hiring juniors, pronto.
> When all the software companies went full remote, they just took a break from hiring juniors (!).
This isn’t true at all. Where I work, we hired more junior engineers than ever before during the pandemic. We were hybrid colocated/remote (mostly colocated, plus me!) in the before times. We had certainly hired juniors before, but we hired a lot more and we’re able to source them from all across the country. It’s been fantastic, and onboarding and training junior engineers remote isn’t the impossible task people make it out to be.
> The effects of the pandemic are not specific to the computer programming industry. Every industry in every area is experiencing a post-pandemic talent shortage, and the solution is going to be the same in every case: raise wages.
Companies can’t raise wages beyond what they have. Gamedevs will never be able to compete with FANG because most games devs lose money and FANG profits billions per quarter.
Grocery stores can’t hire fast enough. They also earn less than $5000 annual profit per employee. So they can’t raise wages without also raising prices.
Now you could say “then those places deserve to go out of business”. Maybe so! But that doesn’t mean a profitable business that can afford larger wages will magically rise from the ashes.
The current jobs situation is really really weird imho. For both fancy white collar jobs and low wage jobs.
How Can Companies Improve Their Retention and Hiring? Answer is simple, Pay the people appropriate salaries and remove micromanagers to improve conditions.
Actual raises would help. In every software dev job I've had, every significant pay increase has come from either switching employers or threatening to switch employers.
If there were more companies where you could work 3-days a week with 60% pay without requiring any special approval, I'm sure they would improve retention and attract a lot of candidates. It seems like this would work well with the move towards part-time remote setups that many companies are trying out now. FAANG companies pay their employees very well but their average tenure per employee is still very low.
To put it a bit more precisely, there is neither a developer nor labor shortage. There is a skill shortage. Companies don't pay you for being a "developer" or "labor", they pay for specific skills and the ability to apply them effectively and competently.
There is a persistent shortage of many skill domains in software. The barrier is that, in many cases, there are few paths to acquiring those skills aside from years of diligent self-study and experience, so it isn't simply a case of manufacturing them on demand. These are the highly paid jobs that are going unfilled even with stratospheric wages, and the demand in some of these skill areas is growing rapidly with no matching increase in supply.
In some skill domains, the market clearing wage for an experienced developer is around $1M right now. I would think that should provide sufficient incentive if increased pay could solve the problem.
> Companies don't pay you for being a "developer" or "labor", they pay for specific skills and the ability to apply them effectively and competently.
Companies tend to be way too specific about the skills required and any learning curve is not permitted. I've used just about every desktop UI framework under the sun and a whole bunch of web ones, but companies that need react developers won't look at me for instance. There might be some highly specialized skills that can command a premium but those are mostly rare exceptions.
Along with companies not training there's also been a shift away from specialized roles and requiring all devs be experts in every tech the company uses past, present and future. When they hire someone that knows x "just in case" they're shrinking the talent pool available.
This isn't really much of a revelation or hot take. That's literally what an economist means when they say there is a labor shortage. The graph for labor shows the intersection between the quantity supplied and the price it is supplied at. It would be meaningless to talk about one without the other.
I agree with you, but to be fair it can be both - if the demand for senior engineers outpaces the supply, you can't just make more senior engineers overnight.
I am an experienced developer. Worked in many companies, last term 4 years. Current back end Java and other skills. Looking for work for more than a year. Can't find a position - no good reasons when rejected after interviews. Becoming skeptical about actual developer shortage in Bay Area.
It's an interesting topic. From my observation industry is divided. For well-paying companies there is an influx of candidates - these companies can be very picky and calibrate hiring process to get the best of the best. Whatever it means in FANG+ big tech context.
On the other side, there are plenty of small, medium, mediocre, old-school places and these companies have to fight for talent if they don't pay a top dollar.
Yep it's another labor shortage. Guess we'll have to bring in foreign developers who we have more leverage over and pay much lower wages to. Sorry, but we have no other choice. (Pay no mind to the 10 million unemployed Americans)
Agreed, some large fraction of those 10M unemployed Americans should learn how to code at some level (could be a CNC machine, could be Excel, ..., could be Python) to get to employable.
That's just invisible hand of the market at work. Why should a company spend more than it has to? Isn't this what the oh-so-sacred capitalism is all about?
Easy solution: fire 50% of middle management and use the saved money to raise software developer salaries. Firing 50% of middle management alone will (for most companies) increase productivity. Especially if you fire the middle managers who are busy in meetings all the time (they are the incompetent ones).
Not only you'll raise salaries and keep devs happier. You'll get more productivity, since those managers like to fill their calendar and yours with useless meetings.
I wish there was a shortage - it'd help shift the power dynamics from stupid people with money funding uber for cats, to people who have a modicum of sense.
Here is a totally different view from Europe.
I have 20+ years of career in R&D, consulting, startups and multinationals, publications in 1-tier conferences, lots of Java/PHP, a bit of Cloud, Big Data and ML experience. I grew up to IT Director, downshifted to a SSE at a unicorn.
I've been searching for a new job for over half a year in Europe. Mostly remote. I am willing to do legacy programming. My only requirement is to work on a product creating real value. But I always bump into artificial niches: GDPR/CCPA/KYC compliance, all sorts of crypto, yet another social network, data mining users, trading floor software... Exactly the sort of things I am tired of.
There is no shortage of software developers, but a big shortage of decent work.
The actual title is "The 2021 Software Developer Shortage Is Coming", which is what I had initially submitted, but it looks like HN automatically trims off "The" and the current year?
This is actually more focused, specifically on the effect the pandemic has on how many new development-related graduates are coming into the market for the next several years.
This article is absurd, the statistics are entirely around "computer and information science" degrees - note this is NOT comp. sci. What software developers do any of us know with that major, lol? As if the # of software engineers in the job market is tied to that major at all (or any specific major, really)...
> "computer and information science" degrees - note this is NOT comp. sci
If you read the reference, you'll see that the phrase 'computer and information science degrees' really means all degrees related to computer science, information science, software engineering, etc. It doesn't literally mean a degree called 'computer and information science', like you think it does. So yes it does include anyone with a computer science degree.
[+] [-] tboyd47|4 years ago|reply
This advice is really tired and has worn thin over the years.
The effects of the pandemic are not specific to the computer programming industry. Every industry in every area is experiencing a post-pandemic talent shortage, and the solution is going to be the same in every case: raise wages. Yes, it's really that simple. The last companies to realize this are going to be the last to solve their staffing problems.
But the programming world will be hit with a one-two punch. Devs don't spend money on expensive training courses and certs to gain skills; we just get hired somewhere and then pester our co-workers. This is why junior dev jobs are always on site. No one wants to hire a junior developer remotely. When all the software companies went full remote, they just took a break from hiring juniors (!).
Junior-level hires are charity, senior-level hires are desperation, and mid-level jobs drive the industry. In about 2 years, we'll be dealing not only with more demand for mid-level talent but less supply -- a lot less.
Companies need to raise wages and get back to hiring juniors, pronto.
[+] [-] ntietz|4 years ago|reply
This isn’t true at all. Where I work, we hired more junior engineers than ever before during the pandemic. We were hybrid colocated/remote (mostly colocated, plus me!) in the before times. We had certainly hired juniors before, but we hired a lot more and we’re able to source them from all across the country. It’s been fantastic, and onboarding and training junior engineers remote isn’t the impossible task people make it out to be.
[+] [-] forrestthewoods|4 years ago|reply
Companies can’t raise wages beyond what they have. Gamedevs will never be able to compete with FANG because most games devs lose money and FANG profits billions per quarter.
Grocery stores can’t hire fast enough. They also earn less than $5000 annual profit per employee. So they can’t raise wages without also raising prices.
Now you could say “then those places deserve to go out of business”. Maybe so! But that doesn’t mean a profitable business that can afford larger wages will magically rise from the ashes.
The current jobs situation is really really weird imho. For both fancy white collar jobs and low wage jobs.
[+] [-] golemotron|4 years ago|reply
It's time to hedge against inflation too.
[+] [-] warmcat|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] crooked-v|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zipiridu|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shmatt|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] geodel|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jandrewrogers|4 years ago|reply
There is a persistent shortage of many skill domains in software. The barrier is that, in many cases, there are few paths to acquiring those skills aside from years of diligent self-study and experience, so it isn't simply a case of manufacturing them on demand. These are the highly paid jobs that are going unfilled even with stratospheric wages, and the demand in some of these skill areas is growing rapidly with no matching increase in supply.
In some skill domains, the market clearing wage for an experienced developer is around $1M right now. I would think that should provide sufficient incentive if increased pay could solve the problem.
[+] [-] flukus|4 years ago|reply
Companies tend to be way too specific about the skills required and any learning curve is not permitted. I've used just about every desktop UI framework under the sun and a whole bunch of web ones, but companies that need react developers won't look at me for instance. There might be some highly specialized skills that can command a premium but those are mostly rare exceptions.
Along with companies not training there's also been a shift away from specialized roles and requiring all devs be experts in every tech the company uses past, present and future. When they hire someone that knows x "just in case" they're shrinking the talent pool available.
[+] [-] rajix|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] whimsicalism|4 years ago|reply
Calling something a labor shortage is a political choice.
[+] [-] anm89|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mindvirus|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ranma4703|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] twwy_qqqq|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mcharezinski|4 years ago|reply
On the other side, there are plenty of small, medium, mediocre, old-school places and these companies have to fight for talent if they don't pay a top dollar.
[+] [-] twiddling|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrisseaton|4 years ago|reply
Offer 50k more or a 4-day-week and you won’t have a shortage of anything.
[+] [-] Oras|4 years ago|reply
I have the impression that the article is assuming:
1. The work is already interesting for developers and they are learning and applying what they learn.
2. Developers are paid well.
3. There is a good culture.
[+] [-] SketchySeaBeast|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fallingknife|4 years ago|reply
Sincerely, Management
[+] [-] outside1234|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bialpio|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mbrodersen|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] flavius29663|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tester756|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] SketchySeaBeast|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dragosmocrii|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] therealjumbo|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alexashka|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sam_lowry_|4 years ago|reply
I've been searching for a new job for over half a year in Europe. Mostly remote. I am willing to do legacy programming. My only requirement is to work on a product creating real value. But I always bump into artificial niches: GDPR/CCPA/KYC compliance, all sorts of crypto, yet another social network, data mining users, trading floor software... Exactly the sort of things I am tired of.
There is no shortage of software developers, but a big shortage of decent work.
[+] [-] qeternity|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] commandlinefan|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samspenc|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rolph|4 years ago|reply
Software Developer Shortage Is Coming[2021]
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] EvilEy3|4 years ago|reply
Fixed title a bit.
[+] [-] rawtxapp|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kingsuper20|4 years ago|reply
Gotta love it.
[+] [-] gilbetron|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rangoon626|4 years ago|reply
This crunch is entirely the fault of the c-suite.
[+] [-] logical_person|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrisseaton|4 years ago|reply
If you read the reference, you'll see that the phrase 'computer and information science degrees' really means all degrees related to computer science, information science, software engineering, etc. It doesn't literally mean a degree called 'computer and information science', like you think it does. So yes it does include anyone with a computer science degree.
[+] [-] xxpor|4 years ago|reply