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Zevis | 4 years ago

We don't need perfect immunity. Canada has shown that focusing on first doses over "full" immunity can work quite well at a population level.

The flu vaccine is around 10-40% effective. Bu suddenly we pretend like if a vaccine doesn't give us 98% immunity, it's useless? Seriously?

discuss

graeme|4 years ago

As a Canadian, I’d caution against firm conclusions from our experience. I’m inclined to think first doses provide good protection, but cases collapsed last summer too despite a relaxing of NPIs. It is hard to overstate how much canadians are outside in summer vs. other seasons:

* School is out, university is out

* Air conditioning is comparatively rare. Or if present, unnecessary. People open their windows and doors instead. I’m typing this now with an open door with bug screen in front.

* Drivers roll down their windows

* People socialize outside in parks and backyards

* The population tans all of a sudden, raising vitamin D levels. Normal respiratory virus spread collapses

* Patios flourish at bars and restaurants. Often the inside is fairly empty. Window-walls open completely leaving restaurant/bar interiors open to the fresh air

* Many offices and professions have summer holidays

Then by mid September we hermetically seal ourselves inside and everyone gets sick once school is back.

I’m cautiously optimistic we’re past needing lockdowns but it is still too soon to tell. Our summer had a powerful seasonal effect last year and seems to have this year too.

(Past needing lockdowns = we’ll get enough new first and second doses in over summer while the season is on our side)

wccrawford|4 years ago

I agree with what you're saying, and I noticed that trend earlier when people were talking about 70% vs 99% effective vaccines...

But IMO, the flu vaccine is pretty useless. I've never had any confidence that it's actually doing anything for me or anyone I know. I notice no difference between years I get it and years I don't. And if the Covid vaccines were only providing 10-40% protection, this whole situation would be a lot worse.