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ArkanExplorer | 4 years ago

In 2019 the American population increased from 327.2 to 328.2.

In 2019 1.03million immigrants were granted permanent resident status.

The American population increase is entirely driven by immigration. The fertility rate is 1.73.

At some point soon the American population will begin falling, without immigration, as the baby boomers die off.

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eesmith|4 years ago

Your numbers are off, and you omitted emigration numbers.

https://www.census.gov/popclock/ says

> The United States population on January 1, 2019 was: 329,474,910

> The United States population on December 31, 2019 was: 331,163,242

Difference = 1,688,332

(Your given population numbers correspond to roughly October 4, 2017 and May 4, 2018.)

Your 1.03M appears correct - https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2019/tab... . It's the 3rd smallest number of the most recent 15 years. Smaller also than 1906, 1907, 1910, 1913 and 1914.

However, people do move away from the US. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-internati... comments "Net international migration added 595,000 to the U.S. population between 2018 and 2019, the lowest level this decade."

Thus, it does not appear true that "The American population increase is entirely driven by immigration".

MikeUt|4 years ago

> It's the 3rd smallest number of the most recent 15 years. Smaller also than 1906, 1907, 1910, 1913 and 1914.

And the 3 largest were 1.27M, 1.18M, and 1.13M. For the last 20 years legal immigration was at an average of 1.06M/year, and the year-to-year differences were negligible (except for 2003) (yes, including during the notoriously anti-immigrant Trump presidency, that averaged 1.08M legal immigrants/year). So ranking them in terms of Nth smallest/largest makes little sense - you're studying noise.

dragonwriter|4 years ago

> In 2019 the American population increased from 327.2 to 238.2.

That's...not an increase.

> In 2019 1.03million immigrants were granted permanent resident status.

That's kind of a non-sequitur. To make your case, you’d need net migration numbers, not number of immigrants granted permanent residency.

> The fertility rate is 1.73.

It’s actually 1.6375, but fertility below replacement isn't negative natural growth, though sustained over the long term with steady-state life expectancy it eventually leads to it.

AnimalMuppet|4 years ago

I asked dragonwriter, so I'll also ask you: Source?