Apple has fought so hard to not be fragile by trying to control its own destiny. Dont depend on Microsoft for a browser or office, dont depend on Intel, or before that Motorola for CPUs, and so on.
The problem now is that they do everything so, now they have to be best at everything.
If you want to run graphics or ML on the Mac, you have to use Apple hardware and APIS, you cant use nVidia hardware or a lot of industry standard APIs, so apple is at a disadvantage.
If you want to develop on Mac, you have to use Xcode, you cant use any other tools. So Apple is at a disadvantage.
Try connecting a variable refresh rate screen to a mac, or a VR headset, or Thundebolt device, or just a USB device in to one of their mobile devices. Try playing the latest hot AAA game everyone is talking about. Try installing a better voice assistant, store, browser or music player and you will find that Apple has made it hard or impossible.
Everything that Apple itself isn't heavily invested in and market leader at sucks. Apple isn't leveraging the industry to its advantage.
Apple is fine now, because its great at a few things and good enough at the rest of the things it needs to find a large market. How long can a company not fail at one of so many things?
That is not quite correct. That is robustness: it means the company can endure stressors in a variety of ways. (Other commenters have pointed this out, and I agree with them.)
But the article does hint at a real argument for antifragility: cash.
Apple's cash position, plus their diverse mix of revenue categories, means that in bad times they will be relatively advantaged over competitors. For example, the company spends $40 billion per quarter or so on advance purchases from chip suppliers---meaning that, when supply shocks happen, they will be better off, because they will continue to have what they need but competitors suddenly will not. What allows them to do that? Money. A giant pile of money. That money contributes to robustness, yes, but when sector- or global-scale stressors occur, it will mean that they can actually improve their competitive position.
I can think of counterarguments, but I think that's the strongest case.
> Have you tried to buy a PlayStation 5 or an Xbox Series X? Good luck, they’re still hard to get. No one can produce enough chips. The same goes for automobiles. Automakers have had to choose between producing cars with fewer features or not making them at all.
> Apple hasn’t had this problem. You can walk into an Apple store right now and pick up an iPhone 12 or an M1-based Mac.
I feel like this is only true right now because Apple already had this problem last year. I recall trying every store around me to get an iPad Pro, they were always out of stock with no indicator when they will get them. It was only possible to get one a month before the new one came out.
I just read the Apple earnings and they reported a 50% year-over-year jump in iPhone sales. That’s absolutely bonkers.
I like Apple and their products. I own an iPad, MacBook, iPhone and AirPods but I don’t understand why so many regular people who aren’t this deep in the Apple ecosystem buy iPhones in such large quantities in 2021.
Go to a carrier store and these are so many modern looking Android devices that rival the iPhone 12. How are Apple still selling so many iPhones when the competition has caught up dramatically?
>How are Apple still selling so many iPhones when the competition has caught up dramatically?
I'm not a tech person like folks around here. I'm good with tech such that dozens of friends and family use me for tech support, but my skills can't touch what HN users can do. I don’t even work in tech. Never have. I'm also someone who has been an Apple user since before there was a Mac.
The idea that the competition "has caught up" sounds like a specs kind-of comparison. I wouldn't know, but I assume it's true (especially ignoring Apple chips). All in all, I assume any major capabilities are widespread. Here are the things I see among average US users I know who are using iPhones and glad they do. Of course, they can afford any iPhone cost premium, but none of what I see is from people who are big spenders, the type who regularly get a newer model. For example, one friend is still happy with his iPhone 7 and a relative recently asked for iPhone recommendations when the screen got shattered on a 5S.
But here are the things I’ve noticed among the people I know, in no particular order:
1. Overall, they actively like the Apple UI and UX. It’s not that it works and that they can do whatever they want, it brings them a measure of pleasure. For all I know it’s as simple as the colors used, but there are experiences there (unknown to me) that delight them. Delight is powerful. Remember in the original iPhone intro when Jobs discussed showing the prototype to a friend and that person said something like, “You had me at rubber band scrolling”? That’s delight.
2. Apple Stores. Average users like knowing where to go in advance should they need full-on help. When making a platform switch, that’s reassuring and apt to come to mind. I think there’s a dual-action thought process—they’re comforted that they just know where there’s an Apple Store (not too far away for most Americans) and they’re at best ambivalent about the carrier store experience for a non-iPhone.
3. Accessories galore. The Android ecosystem may be just as bountiful, but most people believe the Apple ecosystem is bountiful. Other than a case they probably don’t know if there are even accessories they want, but they like the comfort of knowing there’s anything they can imagine if they get a need.
4. The iPad. If you're a tablet user (ignoring e-readers here), being all-in on one style of UI/UX, along with any Apple integrations—the notes just sync!—has value and allure. Since the iPad is the tablet, Apple has kind of cornered that multi-purchase market.
5A. Network effects. These remarkable, ongoing iPhone sales numbers, combined with ideas like I’ve described above, are going to have network effects. Whether it’s blue-bubble peer pressure, nearly 15 years of iPhone TV commercials seeping into minds, whatever… hundreds of millions of satisfied users are going to have network effects.
5B. The other network effect is all-time iPhone sales. What is it, around a billion now? Over nearly 15 years. That's a lot of phones getting replaced even by people who aren't the type to always have a sufficiently new model.
When a product reaches this many sales, it’s never about specific features. Nearly all buyers don’t know the strengths or weaknesses of the iPhone privacy features. Encryption? Most people’s first thought is a fear of getting locked out. Privacy? There’s a good chance they’ll install a Facebook, Instagram, or Google-made app anyway, all without a thought about privacy. The camera? They can see it's good. Apps? There are loads.
That’s why Apple keeps tacking on more small features or services. Keep the users happy. Users likely don’t care about the free Apple Arcade trial or home screen widgets or a new accessibility capability. But there’s something there for pretty much everyone. Maybe it’s the free season of Apple TV because they saw Ted Lasso. Or easily pinpointing a kid’s whereabouts. Or FaceTime because grandma has an iPad and she’ll know how to answer a FaceTime call the first time she gets one.
The product becomes something else at some point. And if Apple keeps them sufficiently satisfied, they’re unlikely to leave, especially since a smartphone borders on necessity in today’s world.
I’m a techie so I’m not sure if the rest of the population thinks about this the same way, but I assume Android phones are spying on me much more than iPhones. Otherwise I’d be down with supporting an “open” phone, though I’m old enough to remember walking tons of people through installing Spybot Search & Destroy due to the, uh, openness of Windows. Also, I spend tons of time fiddling around on the command line and don’t feel the need to get my tinkerer fix from a phone. Maybe other people don’t want to move away from what’s familiar, or they just want to see the blue color for a fellow iMessage user to feel they’re using the same thing as the other iPhone folks. I’m also expecting to rely on various iOS permissions settings as my kids grow up, and Find My iPhone is very handy with my family’s devices.
To counter what others are saying, switching to a samsung phone was a breeze and the camera is better. I don't have a gazillion iphone accessories so it helped. My take is: phones have peaked in their potential years ago, it's no longer 2012 and people can't keep rationalizing their purchases on technical superiority. Most people i meet who own iphones are heavily into the cult of the brand to the point where they 'll feel the need to comment about phones when they see you don't have one (for me phones are never a subject i'd bring up). My take is iphones are like LV bags: there is a lot of social signaling around phones and a lot of hyperbole over the superiority of apple to the point where it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. And unlike other signaling purhcases like cars, these are actually affordable. That's why , i think, phone sales are higher than their other products: cause you carry the phone everywhere. I like iphones; but i ve become accustomed to the freedom of androids now which i value more.
I'm just surprised that people need devices. I have an iPhone and no desire to replace it -- it's basically perfect at this point.
To some extent, I wonder what the future looks like for Apple. It's like some God gave them the golden goose, the iPhone, and I just wonder what happens when people are done buying those. (It's hard to imagine a world where people aren't buying $1200 phones, but it was also hard to imagine the world in 1990 where people weren't buying $1200 personal computers. So what does 2050 look like for Apple?)
A new iPhone SE is $250 from Boost Mobile right now. The last time I owned a budget Android phone the MISC folder filled up with garbage that I couldn't delete until the phone was unusable. My iPhone SE will probably end up lasting something like five years. I think the iPhone SE is the best choice if you're on tight budget because its OS is better and the phone will last longer for that reason alone.
I can address the iPhone at least for me. I bought my first iPhone this year. The reason is because, unfortunately, Apple is the only company that pretty much promises more than 3 years of security updates. I believe on Android, pixel is the best with offering 3 years of support (my last phone was a Pixel 3a). I could have stuck with android and found a phone that is fully supported by some of the more FOSS implementations of Android, but it is a pain to source a phone that has all of the drivers. This is the one place where I commend Apple, their phones average about 6-7 years of security updates and OS updates.
I finally got an iPad two years ago and then half a year later I got a midrange iPhone.
Reason is I'm fed up with all my Android phones after Samsung SII either lagging from day one or starting to lag after a few months. I think I have lost a few nice photos because the phone was busy doing something else when you picked it up to shoot a funny moment. It also compounds: I think I reached less often for my camera phone when I know it will fail me.
I'm also tired of Samsung stalling OS updates to sell new phones.
I'm also didn't enjoy Sony adding Amazon link on the home screen of my phone during an OS update: It is a minor thing but it nicely proved they didn't understand it is my phone after I have paid them for it.
I've also given my three oldest kids used iPhones. iPhones are easier to repair and generally nicer, easier to get covers and screen protectors for and my kids prefer them.
Taking a step away from Google is a nice bonus.
(No Apple products before 2019 except a company laptop in 2009 - 2012.)
For Q2, year-on-year is comparing against the first wave of COVID last year, when the world was coming to a screeching halt. Many other tech companies like Google are posting similarly outrageous figures, simply because the baseline is low.
As for who's buying, COVID relief checks will be at least part of the answer.
I think my #1 reason to stay Apple for the foreseeable years is that they put Privacy up there as a value. It makes all it's money from hardware and not my data. Once you understand how Google makes it's money it doesn't make you want to use it's products.
Homekit may not be as good as Alexa/Google assistant for home automation but it makes an effort to keep all your data local and not in a cloud. A small minority of us really value that.
I understand for regular people though it's really just a status symbol. I spent X on a phone cause I'm doing well in life.
> Go to a carrier store and these are so many modern looking Android devices that rival the iPhone 12.
Are there really? From what I hear from non-techie friends and coworkers, what they care the most about in a modern phone is the camera (everything else being effectively indistinguishable to them); and you can count the Android phones competitive in this field on one hand.
And all of them make different tradeoffs and/or have outright problems that prevent them from being "the" iPhone killer, even if you care enough to dig into their details, which most people don't have the time or interest in. Apple is the "safe" choice as far as the general public is concerned, and not undeservedly so.
> Go to a carrier store and these are so many modern looking Android devices that rival the iPhone 12.
No. Nothing rivals the iPhone 12. Its Apple Silicon CPU makes it the most powerful smartphone by a wide margin. And Apple didn't make the galaxybrain decision to include a runtime with a GC. Because, you know, they care about the entire user experience, including battery life and everything running at a smooth 60fps.
1. Most of the highest uptake in YOY were from Greater China.
2. 5G is a thing.
3. People are actually upgrading to 5G smartphone because they want their phone to last longer. Instead of buying another phone again.
4. China also has the largest 5G deployment. Their MNO upgrade to 5G is also a few years ahead of everyone else due to their needs from a high population density.
5. iOS 14 widget is surpassingly favourable among Android Switchers.
6. Google's reputation due to privacy concern is having some effect on Android market.
7. The urge to spend due to not being able to do much at home.
Basically it is lots of factors creating a perfect storm.
I still maintain the same analogy as 10 years ago, iOS / iPhone is a smartphone appliance trying to push upwards into a computer, while Android is a pocket computer trying to be like a Smartphone Appliance. Both have their appeals, but generally speaking I tend to prefer the less complex, simple model of iOS. But yes they are increasingly alike.
Flagship android devices have been ahead of apple (other than maybe cpu speed which doesn't much matter) in almost all features for the past decade. I got an iphone because google screwed up my account and it was like pulling teeth to get access back so I switched to Apple and enjoyed the extras of a much more private OS and a company not trying to sell me out to every shyster who pays a few bucks to their ad revenue branch. I still use linux for work and personal computing. I did on a whim by a low end mac mini to play with the OS though but I don't do anything serious on it. Also I'll be able to update my phone 2-3x as long as an android phone. I usually keep a phone for at least 4 years so that's important to me.
I’m not sure how many people have spent multiple years on each iOS and Android but I have. And the experience quality isn’t even comparable. Android feels like using a Windows PC where you are always having to fiddle with some setting, install something, kill a process, fuck with the registry. iOS is absolutely hands-off in a way that nothing else is (including Mac OS). For a touchscreen device people are willing to sacrifice configurability for reliability. As phones become increasingly important to people’s lives they will spend the money to get the good stuff (and, iOS has come down in price, and due to the longevity of the products, is far cheaper over the long run. My wife is still using an iPhone 6S, and it’s still snappy).
I think the iPhone upgrade program is pretty compelling. For a lot of folks that means you can get a new iPhone every year for ~$50/mo, which is pretty manageable for most people. Having the new iPhone every year is fun and conveys a certain status. I’m not sure there’s any Android phone that conveys status. So, that’s probably got a lot to do with it.
The main reason why I recommend iPhone to any one that asks is because they can just walk any "phone store" and just pick the one that looks the way they want - it doesn't matter which one they pick, they're all excellent phones. Just like Macs used to.
I believe Tim Cook said they have the top two phones in China this past quarter. They were also the top 2 in many (or most) markets. Their global penetration is legit.
I think apple has growing to be more reliable and seamless since Tim Cook took over?
Although many complaints that apple has less innovation compared to the Steve's era, however the ecosystem that Tim has built between apple's product has been awesome. You can just feel it when you use your mac, apple watch, iphone, airpods. It ONLY happens between apple products though.
Then when I go back to my windows PC and try to use apple music, or even try to transfer videos / photos, I started cursing apple again.
every time i use osx i fucking start cursing due to how god forsaken slow it is. apple even managed to make it so slow I notice it when helping my coworkers debug their code.
As someone who owns an iPad, airpods, and a MBP (just to state some non-apple-hater credentials) I was just commenting yesterday to someone that despite owning all 3 of these products I have no way to plug in either of the first two into the third one. I have zero cords that connect them because of decisions that have been made about them. And despite them being on the same "ecosystem" I have never needed any kind of syncing or wireless connection between my iPad and my MBP. I wish Apple would focus more on strengthening the quality of their PRODUCTS rather than their "ecosystem".
To be antifragile you need to always have top talent and have them work on deep projects and produce top notch products.
Apple had that with Steve Jobs.
I don't think it has that now. I haven't seen anything really interesting from Apple after Steve Jobs passed away. Their macbook offerings keep getting worse: the touch bar is a UX disaster. The desktop keeps getting slower. The UI keeps getting flatter and worse.
Apple used to be a market leader: they would release a new product every few years and everyone would soon follow suit: iPhone, iPad.
Now Apple is just trying to mimick other companies: producing various sizes and version of iPhone and iPad.
Why do you think that the M1 chip isn't interesting enough?
Other than that, their apple watches also have some very novel technologies.
Also, their newer iPads with the M1 chip are processing power houses.
> Now Apple is just trying to mimick other companies: producing various sizes and version of iPhone and iPad.
Disagree: AirPods are a cultural phenomenon with many copy cats and the Apple Watch is the most popular and profitable watch (not just smart watch) in the world.
> I don't think it has that now. I haven't seen anything really interesting from Apple after Steve Jobs passed away
It's not revolutionary but the new M1 laptops from Apple are one of the best hardware-related things I have purchased in the last 10 years or so. Presumably it won't bring Apple tens of billions in profits but they have managed to gain some developers' goodwill for the platform.
The best part about these kinds of stories is that we all get to share our feelings about Apple! Tell us why you prefer iOS or Android -- I can't wait to find out!!
They are still coupled to manufacturing in China. If you look at the capricious nature of CCP regulation just in the past year, with Didi, Ant, Ed Tech, etc or even the government news apparatus sicking mobs on to Tesla triggering a decline in Tesla sales over what looks to be a staged protest over brakes, it is not good situation to be in. TSMC is building tons of a fabs, including two in Arizona right now, so they will have some protection from the CCP starting an invasion, but such a conflict would undoubtedly draw the US into it, if only by proxy, and set off a major split in diplomatic/economic relations, which would threaten pretty much any US company with significant manufacturing base in China.
Tim Cook should be looking to shift more production to India, Southeast Asia, Brazil, etc. That way, he doesn't have to engage in major acting performances at Chinese conferences, like saying that Apple shares China's vision of an "open" internet.
I had trouble getting past:
"Imagine a heavy, cast-iron kettlebell. If you put it on top of a paper cup, it crushes the cup. Put it on top of a concrete block and the concrete block supports it just fine. But if you lift that kettlebell repeatedly (with good form), you will get stronger. The paper cup is fragile, the concrete block is robust, and your body is antifragile (even if it doesn’t always feel that way)."
If you put (for some value of "put" - i.e. drop from 6 inches) a kettlebell on the human head, you will discover that the human body isn't all that antifragile.
Honestly the word I think the author is looking for is "diversified."
Apple isn't "antifragile", they're just monstrously big. Since they have an iron grip on their supply chain, it makes sense that they'd benefit right now while their competitors struggle.
As other people is saying, the arguments from the article point Apple to be robust, not antifragile. As it still has many single points of failure in its design the whole thing may still break by a hardware bug, or the lack of software or whatever.
In order to be antifragile it should become stronger after each stressor is applied, but we can only see it becoming stronger by the stressors over
the competitors not onto itself.
Still apples strategy is very good, but not as antifragile as something like a Linux OS which by not having hardware and being crossplatform may still grow market and show strength from such lack of hardware vendors.
The author of this post does not appear to have actually read the book "antifragile," and seems to think it just means "company that has reduced its weak spots."
Nothing in this post has anything to do with anti-fragility.
This author also doesn't seem to understand basic economics. They seem to be confusing that PS5 is unavailable and Mac isn't as an issue of Apple doing better with supply, when the actual issue is that there's far more demand for the PlayStation.
One big danger for Apple is a further escalation of the US-China tech war. If China starts retaliating for the US sanctions against Huawei, Xiaomi etc by going after big US companies then Apple can be seriously hurt, even though they are probably not first in line.
Hmmm. Apple may have benefited from lockdown - people working from home and so using and consuming more on their devices but I think that's a fairly weak case for being Antifragile.
By that measure Google, MS, FB, Zoom etc are all Antifragile.
To be truly Antifragile a firm has to be able to benefit from a whole range of stressors.
I actually think FB may be the most Antifragile of the big tech firms. They have been stressed in a number of key ways already (eg shift to mobile, Google+) and seem to come out stronger.
>Analyst Ben Bajarin said it’s due to Apple locking in its chip supply.
( Takes a Deep Breath )
Why is it Chip supply again? Why is it TSMC again? This is very very tiring. No wonder why people stop reading any sort of media once they are pass certain age.
How about locking in all component supply? From OLED, NAND, DRAM, Modem to everything else down to speaker piece. The 26% YoY increase is exactly inlined with the current projection of 90M new iPhone in 2021.
X: But these are just rumours, we dont know for a fact.......
Look, You dont move 90 Million of leading edge / high quality / high premium components within a single quarter without pretty much anyone in the supply chains knows what you are doing. I mean, you dont even need to be inside the supply chain or connection with supply chain. Even if you work or have connection with logistics like DHL. Moving 90M smartphone without a short period of time is no small feat.
And the whole Antifragile thesis is based on Apple making record quarter, or specifically making Record quarter under supposedly market stress. This analysis is about as bad as the Apple is doomed narrative for the past ten years or Apple is doomed in 2019 because of a drip in sales in Greater China. [1] And it is the same thing happening again. Greater China manage to pull in huge increase of iPhone sales YoY. And it is now Antifragile? Not to mention that remote learning and Staying at Home drove sales of iPad and Mac to new height along with M1. Services Revenue because more people are staying at home with digital spending. ( Look at the Disney+ numbers ). 5G is driving Smartphone sales, whether you like it or not. But most ( if not all ) tech forums are still in 5G denial.
I see Apple as a Robust company. But Anti-fragility was not a results of Apple's doing within the pandemic period. It was preparation of product line and services that just happen to hit home during it. This Anti Apple is Doomed thesis has now turned into Apple is Booned. ( Sorry People I know Boon is not a verb, cant think of a better word though. )
[1] Which is the single biggest problem with Analysing truly Global multinational companies. None of those analyst understand a single thing about China. Zero. And yet China is representing 26% of Apple's total revenue.
All dominant market share companies are antifragile, all rich people are antifragile, each economic crisis makes the rich richer and most of the poor poorer.
[+] [-] quelsolaar|4 years ago|reply
The problem now is that they do everything so, now they have to be best at everything.
If you want to run graphics or ML on the Mac, you have to use Apple hardware and APIS, you cant use nVidia hardware or a lot of industry standard APIs, so apple is at a disadvantage.
If you want to develop on Mac, you have to use Xcode, you cant use any other tools. So Apple is at a disadvantage.
Try connecting a variable refresh rate screen to a mac, or a VR headset, or Thundebolt device, or just a USB device in to one of their mobile devices. Try playing the latest hot AAA game everyone is talking about. Try installing a better voice assistant, store, browser or music player and you will find that Apple has made it hard or impossible.
Everything that Apple itself isn't heavily invested in and market leader at sucks. Apple isn't leveraging the industry to its advantage.
Apple is fine now, because its great at a few things and good enough at the rest of the things it needs to find a large market. How long can a company not fail at one of so many things?
[+] [-] isamuel|4 years ago|reply
> thanks to a diverse mix of strong products.
That is not quite correct. That is robustness: it means the company can endure stressors in a variety of ways. (Other commenters have pointed this out, and I agree with them.)
But the article does hint at a real argument for antifragility: cash.
Apple's cash position, plus their diverse mix of revenue categories, means that in bad times they will be relatively advantaged over competitors. For example, the company spends $40 billion per quarter or so on advance purchases from chip suppliers---meaning that, when supply shocks happen, they will be better off, because they will continue to have what they need but competitors suddenly will not. What allows them to do that? Money. A giant pile of money. That money contributes to robustness, yes, but when sector- or global-scale stressors occur, it will mean that they can actually improve their competitive position.
I can think of counterarguments, but I think that's the strongest case.
[+] [-] plorntus|4 years ago|reply
> Apple hasn’t had this problem. You can walk into an Apple store right now and pick up an iPhone 12 or an M1-based Mac.
I feel like this is only true right now because Apple already had this problem last year. I recall trying every store around me to get an iPad Pro, they were always out of stock with no indicator when they will get them. It was only possible to get one a month before the new one came out.
[+] [-] retskrad|4 years ago|reply
I like Apple and their products. I own an iPad, MacBook, iPhone and AirPods but I don’t understand why so many regular people who aren’t this deep in the Apple ecosystem buy iPhones in such large quantities in 2021.
Go to a carrier store and these are so many modern looking Android devices that rival the iPhone 12. How are Apple still selling so many iPhones when the competition has caught up dramatically?
[+] [-] NaOH|4 years ago|reply
I'm not a tech person like folks around here. I'm good with tech such that dozens of friends and family use me for tech support, but my skills can't touch what HN users can do. I don’t even work in tech. Never have. I'm also someone who has been an Apple user since before there was a Mac.
The idea that the competition "has caught up" sounds like a specs kind-of comparison. I wouldn't know, but I assume it's true (especially ignoring Apple chips). All in all, I assume any major capabilities are widespread. Here are the things I see among average US users I know who are using iPhones and glad they do. Of course, they can afford any iPhone cost premium, but none of what I see is from people who are big spenders, the type who regularly get a newer model. For example, one friend is still happy with his iPhone 7 and a relative recently asked for iPhone recommendations when the screen got shattered on a 5S.
But here are the things I’ve noticed among the people I know, in no particular order:
1. Overall, they actively like the Apple UI and UX. It’s not that it works and that they can do whatever they want, it brings them a measure of pleasure. For all I know it’s as simple as the colors used, but there are experiences there (unknown to me) that delight them. Delight is powerful. Remember in the original iPhone intro when Jobs discussed showing the prototype to a friend and that person said something like, “You had me at rubber band scrolling”? That’s delight.
2. Apple Stores. Average users like knowing where to go in advance should they need full-on help. When making a platform switch, that’s reassuring and apt to come to mind. I think there’s a dual-action thought process—they’re comforted that they just know where there’s an Apple Store (not too far away for most Americans) and they’re at best ambivalent about the carrier store experience for a non-iPhone.
3. Accessories galore. The Android ecosystem may be just as bountiful, but most people believe the Apple ecosystem is bountiful. Other than a case they probably don’t know if there are even accessories they want, but they like the comfort of knowing there’s anything they can imagine if they get a need.
4. The iPad. If you're a tablet user (ignoring e-readers here), being all-in on one style of UI/UX, along with any Apple integrations—the notes just sync!—has value and allure. Since the iPad is the tablet, Apple has kind of cornered that multi-purchase market.
5A. Network effects. These remarkable, ongoing iPhone sales numbers, combined with ideas like I’ve described above, are going to have network effects. Whether it’s blue-bubble peer pressure, nearly 15 years of iPhone TV commercials seeping into minds, whatever… hundreds of millions of satisfied users are going to have network effects.
5B. The other network effect is all-time iPhone sales. What is it, around a billion now? Over nearly 15 years. That's a lot of phones getting replaced even by people who aren't the type to always have a sufficiently new model.
When a product reaches this many sales, it’s never about specific features. Nearly all buyers don’t know the strengths or weaknesses of the iPhone privacy features. Encryption? Most people’s first thought is a fear of getting locked out. Privacy? There’s a good chance they’ll install a Facebook, Instagram, or Google-made app anyway, all without a thought about privacy. The camera? They can see it's good. Apps? There are loads.
That’s why Apple keeps tacking on more small features or services. Keep the users happy. Users likely don’t care about the free Apple Arcade trial or home screen widgets or a new accessibility capability. But there’s something there for pretty much everyone. Maybe it’s the free season of Apple TV because they saw Ted Lasso. Or easily pinpointing a kid’s whereabouts. Or FaceTime because grandma has an iPad and she’ll know how to answer a FaceTime call the first time she gets one.
The product becomes something else at some point. And if Apple keeps them sufficiently satisfied, they’re unlikely to leave, especially since a smartphone borders on necessity in today’s world.
[+] [-] stephenhuey|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cblconfederate|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jrockway|4 years ago|reply
To some extent, I wonder what the future looks like for Apple. It's like some God gave them the golden goose, the iPhone, and I just wonder what happens when people are done buying those. (It's hard to imagine a world where people aren't buying $1200 phones, but it was also hard to imagine the world in 1990 where people weren't buying $1200 personal computers. So what does 2050 look like for Apple?)
[+] [-] onelastjob|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tcmart14|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eitland|4 years ago|reply
Reason is I'm fed up with all my Android phones after Samsung SII either lagging from day one or starting to lag after a few months. I think I have lost a few nice photos because the phone was busy doing something else when you picked it up to shoot a funny moment. It also compounds: I think I reached less often for my camera phone when I know it will fail me.
I'm also tired of Samsung stalling OS updates to sell new phones.
I'm also didn't enjoy Sony adding Amazon link on the home screen of my phone during an OS update: It is a minor thing but it nicely proved they didn't understand it is my phone after I have paid them for it.
I've also given my three oldest kids used iPhones. iPhones are easier to repair and generally nicer, easier to get covers and screen protectors for and my kids prefer them.
Taking a step away from Google is a nice bonus.
(No Apple products before 2019 except a company laptop in 2009 - 2012.)
[+] [-] Aunche|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Clewza313|4 years ago|reply
As for who's buying, COVID relief checks will be at least part of the answer.
[+] [-] k4ch0w|4 years ago|reply
Homekit may not be as good as Alexa/Google assistant for home automation but it makes an effort to keep all your data local and not in a cloud. A small minority of us really value that.
I understand for regular people though it's really just a status symbol. I spent X on a phone cause I'm doing well in life.
[+] [-] kevin_thibedeau|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] creshal|4 years ago|reply
Are there really? From what I hear from non-techie friends and coworkers, what they care the most about in a modern phone is the camera (everything else being effectively indistinguishable to them); and you can count the Android phones competitive in this field on one hand.
And all of them make different tradeoffs and/or have outright problems that prevent them from being "the" iPhone killer, even if you care enough to dig into their details, which most people don't have the time or interest in. Apple is the "safe" choice as far as the general public is concerned, and not undeservedly so.
[+] [-] bitwize|4 years ago|reply
No. Nothing rivals the iPhone 12. Its Apple Silicon CPU makes it the most powerful smartphone by a wide margin. And Apple didn't make the galaxybrain decision to include a runtime with a GC. Because, you know, they care about the entire user experience, including battery life and everything running at a smooth 60fps.
[+] [-] ksec|4 years ago|reply
2. 5G is a thing.
3. People are actually upgrading to 5G smartphone because they want their phone to last longer. Instead of buying another phone again.
4. China also has the largest 5G deployment. Their MNO upgrade to 5G is also a few years ahead of everyone else due to their needs from a high population density.
5. iOS 14 widget is surpassingly favourable among Android Switchers.
6. Google's reputation due to privacy concern is having some effect on Android market.
7. The urge to spend due to not being able to do much at home.
Basically it is lots of factors creating a perfect storm.
I still maintain the same analogy as 10 years ago, iOS / iPhone is a smartphone appliance trying to push upwards into a computer, while Android is a pocket computer trying to be like a Smartphone Appliance. Both have their appeals, but generally speaking I tend to prefer the less complex, simple model of iOS. But yes they are increasingly alike.
[+] [-] stjohnswarts|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] spoonjim|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] burlesona|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _rutinerad|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] irrational|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] microsimulacro|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dmitriid|4 years ago|reply
Which of the hundreds of models of "modern Android devices" should one get?
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] matchbok|4 years ago|reply
There's just no comparison.
[+] [-] runawaybottle|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] robertwt7|4 years ago|reply
Then when I go back to my windows PC and try to use apple music, or even try to transfer videos / photos, I started cursing apple again.
[+] [-] jatone|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bussierem|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hsn915|4 years ago|reply
To be antifragile you need to always have top talent and have them work on deep projects and produce top notch products.
Apple had that with Steve Jobs.
I don't think it has that now. I haven't seen anything really interesting from Apple after Steve Jobs passed away. Their macbook offerings keep getting worse: the touch bar is a UX disaster. The desktop keeps getting slower. The UI keeps getting flatter and worse.
Apple used to be a market leader: they would release a new product every few years and everyone would soon follow suit: iPhone, iPad.
Now Apple is just trying to mimick other companies: producing various sizes and version of iPhone and iPad.
Having a strong supply chain is not antifragile.
[+] [-] fmax30|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tpush|4 years ago|reply
Disagree: AirPods are a cultural phenomenon with many copy cats and the Apple Watch is the most popular and profitable watch (not just smart watch) in the world.
[+] [-] paganel|4 years ago|reply
It's not revolutionary but the new M1 laptops from Apple are one of the best hardware-related things I have purchased in the last 10 years or so. Presumably it won't bring Apple tens of billions in profits but they have managed to gain some developers' goodwill for the platform.
[+] [-] InternetPerson|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cromwellian|4 years ago|reply
Tim Cook should be looking to shift more production to India, Southeast Asia, Brazil, etc. That way, he doesn't have to engage in major acting performances at Chinese conferences, like saying that Apple shares China's vision of an "open" internet.
[+] [-] ojbyrne|4 years ago|reply
If you put (for some value of "put" - i.e. drop from 6 inches) a kettlebell on the human head, you will discover that the human body isn't all that antifragile.
Honestly the word I think the author is looking for is "diversified."
[+] [-] smoldesu|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nudpiedo|4 years ago|reply
In order to be antifragile it should become stronger after each stressor is applied, but we can only see it becoming stronger by the stressors over the competitors not onto itself.
Still apples strategy is very good, but not as antifragile as something like a Linux OS which by not having hardware and being crossplatform may still grow market and show strength from such lack of hardware vendors.
[+] [-] max_|4 years ago|reply
"Blue chip" corporations like Apple fall more into the "Turkey Problem" i.e people expecting the big, to continue being big.
[+] [-] JohnHaugeland|4 years ago|reply
Nothing in this post has anything to do with anti-fragility.
This author also doesn't seem to understand basic economics. They seem to be confusing that PS5 is unavailable and Mac isn't as an issue of Apple doing better with supply, when the actual issue is that there's far more demand for the PlayStation.
This is not a person to learn from.
[+] [-] throwaway4good|4 years ago|reply
One big danger for Apple is a further escalation of the US-China tech war. If China starts retaliating for the US sanctions against Huawei, Xiaomi etc by going after big US companies then Apple can be seriously hurt, even though they are probably not first in line.
[+] [-] Animats|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dumindaxsb|4 years ago|reply
However, we thought similarly about Nokia, Intel, SpaceX competitors, etc.
[+] [-] klelatti|4 years ago|reply
By that measure Google, MS, FB, Zoom etc are all Antifragile.
To be truly Antifragile a firm has to be able to benefit from a whole range of stressors.
I actually think FB may be the most Antifragile of the big tech firms. They have been stressed in a number of key ways already (eg shift to mobile, Google+) and seem to come out stronger.
[+] [-] ksec|4 years ago|reply
( Takes a Deep Breath )
Why is it Chip supply again? Why is it TSMC again? This is very very tiring. No wonder why people stop reading any sort of media once they are pass certain age.
How about locking in all component supply? From OLED, NAND, DRAM, Modem to everything else down to speaker piece. The 26% YoY increase is exactly inlined with the current projection of 90M new iPhone in 2021.
X: But these are just rumours, we dont know for a fact.......
Look, You dont move 90 Million of leading edge / high quality / high premium components within a single quarter without pretty much anyone in the supply chains knows what you are doing. I mean, you dont even need to be inside the supply chain or connection with supply chain. Even if you work or have connection with logistics like DHL. Moving 90M smartphone without a short period of time is no small feat.
And the whole Antifragile thesis is based on Apple making record quarter, or specifically making Record quarter under supposedly market stress. This analysis is about as bad as the Apple is doomed narrative for the past ten years or Apple is doomed in 2019 because of a drip in sales in Greater China. [1] And it is the same thing happening again. Greater China manage to pull in huge increase of iPhone sales YoY. And it is now Antifragile? Not to mention that remote learning and Staying at Home drove sales of iPad and Mac to new height along with M1. Services Revenue because more people are staying at home with digital spending. ( Look at the Disney+ numbers ). 5G is driving Smartphone sales, whether you like it or not. But most ( if not all ) tech forums are still in 5G denial.
I see Apple as a Robust company. But Anti-fragility was not a results of Apple's doing within the pandemic period. It was preparation of product line and services that just happen to hit home during it. This Anti Apple is Doomed thesis has now turned into Apple is Booned. ( Sorry People I know Boon is not a verb, cant think of a better word though. )
[1] Which is the single biggest problem with Analysing truly Global multinational companies. None of those analyst understand a single thing about China. Zero. And yet China is representing 26% of Apple's total revenue.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] nathias|4 years ago|reply