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w4llstr33t | 4 years ago
Also, what about dark pools?
Contrary to my username, which I just get a kick out of, I don't actually work on wall street or anything, but I've always felt the stock market was rigged for the elite. I think it is very likely that they have info before normal retail investors have any idea.
carnitine|4 years ago
w4llstr33t|4 years ago
Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt by Michael Lewis painted HFT in a pretty bad way. I have read criticisms of the book, but it's hard to separate out bias from the criticism.
There's also all the heat on Robinhood about selling order flow, which I'm surprised was even news to regular investors. It's great they eliminated fees for normal trades, and I also understand most major brokerages sell order flow as well (and still charged for trades for a long time). I read that Fidelity is the only major player that doesn't sell order flow.
Do you have some sources that someone could learn more about this, ones that don't have a vested interest in painting it in a positive way?
Also, I'm still wondering, considering dark pools [1], and the inside information that would come along with that, since those trades wouldn't hit public markets, how the stock markets can be considered a fair place to trade?
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introdu...
traceroute66|4 years ago
Apologies if my post implied insider knowledge on the part of HFTs. That's not the case.
The point I was making is their model is ONLY viable if they have the best mathematical brains, the best computing power, the best connectivity. If anything in that fragile chain is broken then their model is unviable.
In the end, they trade on what is best described as noise. They look for patterns in the noise. And so they need "the best" noise, as soon as instantly as they can get it, and the computing power to process it as close to instantly as possible.
I called it "another story" because its a truly nuts way of making money. ;-)
There is an old saying. "Time in a trade is better than timing a trade". HFTs are basically trying to do the latter all day, every day.
In my view, John Doe the buy & hold investor actually has the advantage that they can wait for weeks, months or years.
Tortoise & Hare and all that ....
Galanwe|4 years ago
Being able to send an order with a smaller latency does not magically get you a "better price".
99.9999% of the market participants couldn't care less if their orders arrived 1ms or 1m after they send it. Hell, most hedge funds trade on a _daily_ basis, with multiple days of expected returns predictions, and are more concerned with the transaction cost than the latency, thus opting for a very slow "market close price" execution algo.
Those interested with very low latency are not hedge funds but market makers, and the kind of microstructure signals they exploit is not only orthogonal to what a retail investor would do, but often brings in just bips per trade, meaning the leverage required to make it worth it is anyway out of the retail league.
> I think it is very likely that they have info before normal retail investors have any idea.
What is a normal retail investor? Obviously hedge funds are going to be faster to react to e.g. earnings events than you. That doesn't mean this information is not public. It's just that HF pay data providers, invest in automatic data processing and decision making, etc.
But normal retail investors don't trade on events, they trade for the long term. For the simple reason that they don't want to hit refresh every second on the web page publishing earnings calls of each stock they want to buy.
> what about dark pools?
Yes, what about them? The name triggers the imagination of people but there's really nothing fancy about it. The objective of dark pools is to allow the exchange of shares without too much of a movement in the orderbook. This is actually good for both users of dark pool (they get lower slippage) and users of the public market (it prevents artificial big swings in price due to large buyouts, which would be announced anyway). The liquidity at time T in the order book is not tailored to absorb any ridiculous amount that a large investor could be willing to exchange.
> Shouldn't the exchanges have offered the best price, and provided liquidity, in the first place?
What does that even mean? The exchanges don't offer price by themselves, they just reflect what participants are willing to pay or receive. They are just middlemen facilitating the exchange of goods by publishing the order book of who's willing to buy/sell and at which price.
The exchanges also cannot magically provide liquidity out of thin air. Liquidity means there is someone real on the other end of your trade that is willing to buy or sell to you. Exchanges cannot create that artificially.
What exchanges do, though, is offer rebates to providers of liquidity (including the market makers that you seem to despise) in exchange for the liquidity they provide. This is not a random decision by the exchange, it's because providing liquidity to the market is beneficial for everyone. As an investor, it means I won't have to worry that I will not be able to sell my shares whenever I want to. It also means that the spread will be tighter, thus lowering my slippage. And subsequently, it also means arbitrage is most likely in place, so I'm not being scammed just because I didn't check the price on 5 different platforms.
w4llstr33t|4 years ago
Thanks for clarifying.
> What is a normal retail investor? Obviously hedge funds are going to be faster to react to e.g. earnings events than you. That doesn't mean this information is not public. It's just that HF pay data providers, invest in automatic data processing and decision making, etc.
Well, this is sort of what I'm saying. As a regular person, you just don't have the same information, or the ability to act on it as quickly. Sure, buy and hold investors aren't really affected, but they are providing liquidity for these folks who can take some advantage. I may be pretty wrong about this, however, it's just like anything where there are friends / contacts / associates. Some parties just have more information, especially if they have money to spend. You did mention earnings though. I just have a hard time believing that hedge funds only act on public information. They might structure their trades based on how not to get flagged, but how do they not have friends or contacts in the space that tell them a thing or two? This is what they are doing full time, so I would imagine they spend a good majority of their time thinking about how to make the most money and not raise any red flags. I actually don't have an issue with this, but I always see claims that the traditional market is totally fair, but it does not seem like a very flat system to me. Those in power seem to have some advantage. If that was how the market was presented (i.e. some people have sway, more information, and the ability to act more quickly than retail), I wouldn't have any issue with this. I see the opposite though, the narrative is that retail traders can make trades without worrying because it's totally equal. If all retail traders were doing was buy and hold, then again, no issue, but not all retail traders trade that way.
> Yes, what about them? The name triggers the imagination of people but there's really nothing fancy about it. The objective of dark pools is to allow the exchange of shares without too much of a movement in the orderbook. This is actually good for both users of dark pool (they get lower slippage) and users of the public market (it prevents artificial big swings in price due to large buyouts, which would be announced anyway). The liquidity at time T in the order book is not tailored to absorb any ridiculous amount that a large investor could be willing to exchange.
Where do I learn more about dark pools? My initial response to learning about them was that they are basically tailored to hide trades from the general public, for the benefit of institutional traders. I was concerned that dark pool operators would also have information that then they could front-run the rest of the market with. I feel like when I make a trade in the equity markets, or if I read something in traditional news, someone else has heard about this earlier that day, or maybe days before, based on insider information, just due to them being more deeply involved with the market. I just don't really see how this is fair (and this is the claim I see time and time again in traditional markets). I don't think all this information is public. If it's in some obscure place, that 95% of the investing public doesn't see, is it really public? Maybe the SEC protects against that, but it seems like the big players have an advantage. It seems like I have a lot of incorrect assumptions though, so I'd like to learn more about this.
> What exchanges do, though, is offer rebates to providers of liquidity (including the market makers that you seem to despise) in exchange for the liquidity they provide. This is not a random decision by the exchange, it's because providing liquidity to the market is beneficial for everyone. As an investor, it means I won't have to worry that I will not be able to sell my shares whenever I want to. It also means that the spread will be tighter, thus lowering my slippage. And subsequently, it also means arbitrage is most likely in place, so I'm not being scammed just because I didn't check the price on 5 different platforms.
Yeah, I get it, this is a quite mature market (and that's a good thing). I still have a feeling that the extremely powerful have sway in the market, in a way that isn't exactly "fair", but maybe it just comes down to the amount of capital they have (but again, I would think that the size of the trades should be on public markets then, not dark pools). Anyway, in the end, what I've learned from all this is how far the traditional markets have come, and how other markets (like crypto, which also have things like dark pools) can learn from this.
amznthrwaway|4 years ago
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