[adamlgerber]

2020 vaccines were made for 2020 variants. Summer 2021 brought new variants that are more contagious than the 2020 variants. Its not hard.

[dolni]

So... then it was a surprise?

[adamlgerber]

variations in the virus are predictable, but which ones really catch on and how are hard to predict.

I don't know how phizer/moderna/etc balance needs to develop different drugs against all possible variants but I expect that once a strong variant emerges they are well incentivized (financially and culturally) to scale up development against it.

The real surprise is how slowly our social and political institutions respond, not our pharma institutions.