The analysis is interesting, and I think it fits for low values of n (and even then, only if the VCs LOVE the team), but I think you might be looking too far ahead without doing the non-numerical analysis. If you failed seven times, do you think you'll get funding and have an 83% chance of success? I think your chance of getting funding, no matter how much the VCs love you, will plummet drastically after a certain value of n, and I'm guessing it's a lot lower than seven (but I have zero data to back that up).
"5. Better VCs Provide Better Deals: Venture capital firm experience is positively related to pre-money valuation. More experienced firms pay more for new ventures -- likely because they have higher success rates. "
[+] [-] glimcat|14 years ago|reply
p1 = 0.18
p2 = 0.20
Naively, p1 || p2 = 0.344
Cumulative probability after N attempts assuming p = 0.2 for any n > 1:
1: 0.180
2: 0.344
3: 0.475
4: 0.580
5: 0.664
6: 0.731
7: 0.785
8: 0.828
This also neglects things like mixed-experience teams (i.e. the probability data in the article is obviously very high level and overly simplistic).
[+] [-] rewind|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Shenglong|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] colindoc84|14 years ago|reply
Kind of tautology, no?
[+] [-] nplusone|14 years ago|reply