[pc]

Yeah, good question. First, we aren’t trying to calculate the absolute rate, just relative changes. (The absolute rate would be nice to know but it’s not needed to know whether we’re getting better or worse.) Methodologically, we sample/scrutinize rejections manually and also look at the occurrence of discovered false rejections. But you’re right that there could be some dark matter that we never become aware of.

[mdoms]

Well it looks like the Brains Trust inside Stripe has found a way to duke your OKRs, because this guy's appeal was denied and he was cut off anyway. No wonder your "incorrectly identified as fraud" metric is trending down if your staff are simply doubling down on incorrect accusations instead of copping them. Sounds like Goodhart's Law in action - do you happen to tie bonuses to OKRs?