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sjatkins | 4 years ago

If we generously assume the models which do not have a good record of maching actual data are correct, 2.7C is not remotely catastrophic by the IPCC's own analysis. Average temperature has been up by much more than that at times in the last few thousand years.

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lisper|4 years ago

> Average temperature has been up by much more than that at times in the last few thousand years.

That is simply not true. Global average temperature has been stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. It is that long-term stability that made the rise of human civilization possible.

baron_harkonnen|4 years ago

> much more than that at times in the last few thousand years.

When was that?

If you look at this estimate of temperature on Planet Earth[0][1] you can clearly see the last time the planet saw > +2C was the Pliocene.

Even if you look more closely at just the Holocene you don't see > +2C anywhere[2]

[0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/All_pala...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record#/med...

jbay808|4 years ago

> the models which do not have a good record of maching actual data

They don't? Which models are you referring to? The model forecast in James Hansen's 1988 congressional testimony was almost spot on.

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hanse...

Uhhrrr|4 years ago

The second graph there shows land-ocean measurements being often below Hansen's conservative estimate.

mbrubeck|4 years ago

> Average temperature has been up by much more than that at times in the last few thousand years.

This is simply false. The last time global average temperature was more than 2.7°C higher than modern times was over 100 thousand years ago.

breakyerself|4 years ago

The models do actually have a very good record of matching the actual data. The way that propagandists convince you they don't is by cherry picking model runs with higher co2 levels and showing a discrepancy between those model runs and reality.

If you instead only look at model runs with co2 levels close to reality you find that the models have done an amazing job of predicting current warming levels. 50 years more than one study showed 1C of warming by 2020 if co2 levels were around 420. Which is exactly spot on to where we are.

Climate modeling predictions are some of the most stunningly accurate predictions in the history of earth science and someone should have gotten a Nobel for it by now.

isoprophlex|4 years ago

Yes and society as it exists now is what, at most 200 years old? Your point is moot.

This temperature rise is totally out-of-context for us, and will cause a lot of pain.

scarmig|4 years ago

A slow, steady increase over millennia of a couple degrees Celsius is fine and possibly even on net good (more agriculture in the northern parts of the globe, which contain a lot of land).

The same increase over a century is disastrous, because infrastructure and capital doesn't change or move nearly so rapidly.

Mehito|4 years ago

Yes most people on hn will not experience much issues through climate change the other 100million and more will.

They will loose land, health, money etc.

People whoms homes will be burned etc.

We will experience future animal diversity reduction. This is something very depressing but depending in the Person how much you care for such things.

Also we will experience more dramatic Events as well. Like droights and lots of rain. The Impact on you might range from 'not leaving my flat today' to 'I lost everything'. Your surroundings will slowly change. Woods will start looking different.

And still we are not very certain about all those things. It could get much faster much worse through tipping points.

It also forces future generations to already plan their future accordingly: they will know that they will experience an increase of sealevel of 60cm and more.

breakyerself|4 years ago

Also temps are higher right now at 1C of warming than they have been in 100,000 years. I'm not aware of any scientists predicting 2.7C of warming as manageable. Society may not collapse, but the amount of degradation of agriculture and biodiversity would be one of the worst tragedies in human history.

outside1234|4 years ago

Every 1C increase results in 2.5m of sea level increase. 8ft of sea level rise will be devastating for Florida for example.

This prediction is for 6.75m of sea level rise or 22ft.

paulmd|4 years ago

It's an interesting hack for the electoral college, certainly. The state is still going to be there, build an artificial island and be the only person left on the island and you get yourself 3 electoral votes and a personal rep and two senators.

splistud|4 years ago

Well, 2.7 from here would be likely not a good thing.

That said, why should we generously assume the models are correct? Because, despite the hundreds of lines of hand-waving in this topic, they have not proved to be correct.