Quotes from the article:
"This has led Norway to have the earliest target for the phaseout of new gas vehicle sales in the world – 2025"
...
"(which, to be clear, is not a legal requirement yet, more of a soft target agreed upon by Norway’s government)"
...
"Norway might even allow limited numbers of gas car sales to continue past 2025"
So Norway isn't banning gas cars in 2025. Norway also likely isn't banning sales of new gas cars in 2025, they're incentivizing people to buy electric. But Electrek's gotta get those clicks.
And to add insult to injury they're counting hybrids. That's ridiculous. If 10 Toyota Corrolas were taken off of the road and replaced with Toyota Corrola Hybrids it's, what, the equivalent of 2 net-new electric cars?
It'll be interesting to see what happens to gas stations. Part of what makes gas cars so popular is the easy ability to refuel, since stations are ubiquitous.
Once a tipping point is reached, most new homes will have the ability to charge cars, and old ones retrofitted, so people mostly charge at home. And gas stations will begin to dry up, making gas cars less desirable.
That same pattern should follow in every country, so it will be useful to have Norway as a data point on what actually happens.
Will they though? I was under the impression "gas stations" make very little from the gas itself, and instead make most from the store (food/drinks etc.)
Recently they replaced a very simple and old gas station in my town with a completely new station featuring a robust store. The volume of business to that station has probably increased 10x.
I remember reading that 7/11 (popular gas station in the US) makes most of its money from purchases inside the convenience store and not gas. But nevertheless, the gas is probably the main reason why most people stop by anyway.
This is purely anecdotal, but I live in Oslo where the majority of cars are now electric. I have seen no reduction in traffic to the neighboring Shell station in the past decade. As far as I know it doesn't offer charging, there are charging stations a few blocks away and this is in an urban area in our biggest city.
My guess is that their daytime customers are people dropping by for a quick bite when parking at a grocery store is too much effort. Stores aren't allowed to be open for the night, so the gas station doesn't have any competition for nighttime customers.
I think that as gas use dries up, gas stations will being installing charging stations (since it takes longer to charge up, it creates an even more captive market for their products in the store) (this of course is based on the idea that charging away from home will still be necessary, which I think it will be)
A street in my town (in Canada) already has 4 gas stations and there are 3 new ones being built. Granted, it is close to a major highway... but 7 gas stations in a 2km stretch seems crazy to me, especially given the (seemingly) inevitable shift to EVs.
This will be the tipping point if it gets hard to find gasoline stations. I won't buy an EV until the very end as the technology is so basic right now. It has to improve and I think we need to get to the point of driving thousands of miles on one charge before it'll be wholly accepted.
Typical with these gas car future bans. The politicians set a date at which they assume EV's will be technically and economically superior and have already won in the market. Then they will credit their ban for the transition, even though they have done nothing. If they are wrong and gas cars are still being sold near the deadline, they will quietly extend it, because they are never going to actually force a sizeable population to give up their cars and lose an election.
2025 is not that far off though. It’s a hell of a lot closer than 2050. Easy to ignore political promises that come into effect after the politician will be dead.
Only 15 % of the 2020 car sales here in Norway were pure ICE. Roughly 55 % was pure electric. EV has been strongly incentivized politically for 10-15 years or so. 60 % of the total car pool is electric (not sure if that includes hybrids).
Knowing that gas cars have a limited future and can foresee running costs rising sharply while resale value plummets incentivizes people to buy electric already.
I'm wondering about the transition dynamics, and the likelihood of a step-change.
Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable. But at some point, there will be few enough miles being driven in petrol-powerd cars that it will be come unprofitable. They will either need to find a new way of making money or close.
This will rapidly turn the tables and range anxiety will become a feature of petrol cars - where on the trip can I find a filling station? There might be a period of substantially increased petrol prices to keep the stations afloat. This will result in petrol-powered automobiles becoming stranded assets.
While this ideally happens slowly enough that most vehicles are used for their full useful lives, it seems more likely that this will be more of a step-change transition — and a lot of people will be left with big expensive lawn ornaments when the music stops.
The other big question is when this will occur. The Norwegians are likely very well off in this regard, as I presume that they can still sell their petrol cars to other areas in the EU. But what about when these charts apply to entire markets like the EU or North America?
In my country (Eastern Europe) there are very generous subsidies now for buying an EV as a replacement for an older vehicle so I ended up going for that instead of buying a nice gas car. With gas prices (and the general economy) being the way they are I simply couldn't justify the increasing cost of gas alongside the lease. I'm looking forward to March/April when it arrives.
Norway is part of EU Emissions Trading System that is becoming very effective. The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to make coal expensive.
This can be done by requiring that all cars must be 100% carbon neutral. To be able to sell gas, companies have to buy carbon permits and hurt coal production. (100% carbon neutral might not be the endpoint. Requirement can grow to 200% or to any arbitrary number). Those who need gas cars could still use them.
I agree with you, but the reality of Norwegian politics is that people react better to all-out bans than taxes, because bans are perceived as affecting all people equally, no matter their income. Taxes are perceived as affecting people with little income more.
I’m very much a fan of taxing all carbon equally, but whenever I discuss the idea with other Norwegians, this reaction seems almost instinctive. In my opinion, there are better, more direct ways to redistribute income if you think that some people have less than they are entitled to (e.g. progressive taxation), but no one seems to convinced by this.
How is Norway dealing with the resulting increase in electric demand, charging at peak times etc? Have there been investments in ripping/replacing distribution and transmission to account for increased demand?
Clickbait-y title aside (other comments were pretty helpful to point this out), this sounds pretty positive.
Not in Norway, but my wife and I have the Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid (our only car). We average about 1 in 6 miles on gasoline power. With more widely distributed charging infrastructure and a bigger battery we could easily make that 0 in 6. This is living in the suburbs of Chicago.
Guessing at the intention behind the phrasing… would you buy a minivan if you worried that the resale value might be near zero? Would some minivan model still be your favourite model given that handicap?
AIUI there's no expectation that selling a used combustion car will become illegal. But people don't have confidence that they'll get a high price (not even for the export market).
I am curious how this works in the North during winter, where very low temperatures reduce battery capacity significantly.
Also, not all roads are suitable for cars that are built for the city.
> I am curious how this works in the North during winter
We have a BMW i3 94Ah model. When it's not cold we get about 230km range.
When it's fairly cold, -10C or below, that drops significantly. Not helped by my SO's requirement to not feel cold. Reported range is about 160km at worst (cold batteries).
Still, we live in the city and it's been just fine for us. We just leave it connected in the garage over night and set the planned departure time in the morning. That way it's ready with heated batteries, which helps a lot.
It hasn't bothered us so far. We knew the limitations going in, so we just plan a bit. Every now and then we get an extra 10-20 minute charging stop on our way back, meh.
Being able to fill the tank at home, so to speak, is great though. So is the lack of engine noise when driving slow or in traffic. It quickly became clear that our next vehicle would definitely be another EV.
Winters in much of Norway rarely get that cold. Certainly in and around Oslo, Bergen and Stavanger very low temperatures are rare and short lived.
And while I'm sure there are some people who need a true off road vehicle, I see people happily drive their Model S and X on small gravel roads to their mountain cabins all the time.
I'm glad I don't live there for many reasons, this being just one more since I like my classic cars.
If the engine goes on my 300zx though I might do an EV conversion. It'd feel like a shame doing that to a manual though. Maybe I'd just sell it and get an automatic to do that to since nobody wants those anyway.
Edit: apparently only a ban on sales, but everything car-related is obscenely expensive over there anyway.
[+] [-] lastofthemojito|4 years ago|reply
Quotes from the article: "This has led Norway to have the earliest target for the phaseout of new gas vehicle sales in the world – 2025" ... "(which, to be clear, is not a legal requirement yet, more of a soft target agreed upon by Norway’s government)" ... "Norway might even allow limited numbers of gas car sales to continue past 2025"
So Norway isn't banning gas cars in 2025. Norway also likely isn't banning sales of new gas cars in 2025, they're incentivizing people to buy electric. But Electrek's gotta get those clicks.
[+] [-] 3pt14159|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] fallingknife|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jfengel|4 years ago|reply
Once a tipping point is reached, most new homes will have the ability to charge cars, and old ones retrofitted, so people mostly charge at home. And gas stations will begin to dry up, making gas cars less desirable.
That same pattern should follow in every country, so it will be useful to have Norway as a data point on what actually happens.
[+] [-] josefresco|4 years ago|reply
Will they though? I was under the impression "gas stations" make very little from the gas itself, and instead make most from the store (food/drinks etc.)
Recently they replaced a very simple and old gas station in my town with a completely new station featuring a robust store. The volume of business to that station has probably increased 10x.
[+] [-] max937|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Happycars|4 years ago|reply
My guess is that their daytime customers are people dropping by for a quick bite when parking at a grocery store is too much effort. Stores aren't allowed to be open for the night, so the gas station doesn't have any competition for nighttime customers.
[+] [-] bdcravens|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] i_haz_rabies|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] avrionov|4 years ago|reply
[1] https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-s...
[+] [-] sys_64738|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toomuchtodo|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] willvarfar|4 years ago|reply
Visiting America, I was completely flummoxed by attendants and tipping and other antiquated things.
This was coined “bullshit jobs” recently.
I think Norway probably points at where the rest of the world is slowly going to go.
[+] [-] JJMcJ|4 years ago|reply
Oh, that's just "the poors", they can drive to a gas station 10 miles a way, I suppose.
[+] [-] fallingknife|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] teej|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kgwgk|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bdcravens|4 years ago|reply
It seems they have already won in the market: "14 of the top 15 cars in Norway are all-electric"
> because they are never going to actually force a sizeable population to give up their cars
This ban doesn't affect current vehicles, only new sales.
[+] [-] Happycars|4 years ago|reply
In short, I'd say you're missing the mark.
Edit: source is elbil.no
[+] [-] willvarfar|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] francisofascii|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toss1|4 years ago|reply
Initially, petrol stations will see declining sales but still be profitable. But at some point, there will be few enough miles being driven in petrol-powerd cars that it will be come unprofitable. They will either need to find a new way of making money or close.
This will rapidly turn the tables and range anxiety will become a feature of petrol cars - where on the trip can I find a filling station? There might be a period of substantially increased petrol prices to keep the stations afloat. This will result in petrol-powered automobiles becoming stranded assets.
While this ideally happens slowly enough that most vehicles are used for their full useful lives, it seems more likely that this will be more of a step-change transition — and a lot of people will be left with big expensive lawn ornaments when the music stops.
The other big question is when this will occur. The Norwegians are likely very well off in this regard, as I presume that they can still sell their petrol cars to other areas in the EU. But what about when these charts apply to entire markets like the EU or North America?
Any insights?
[+] [-] beezischillin|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sparsely|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] simorley|4 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
[+] [-] imtringued|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dboreham|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nabla9|4 years ago|reply
Norway is part of EU Emissions Trading System that is becoming very effective. The best way to cut CO2 emissions would be to make coal expensive.
This can be done by requiring that all cars must be 100% carbon neutral. To be able to sell gas, companies have to buy carbon permits and hurt coal production. (100% carbon neutral might not be the endpoint. Requirement can grow to 200% or to any arbitrary number). Those who need gas cars could still use them.
[+] [-] vages|4 years ago|reply
I’m very much a fan of taxing all carbon equally, but whenever I discuss the idea with other Norwegians, this reaction seems almost instinctive. In my opinion, there are better, more direct ways to redistribute income if you think that some people have less than they are entitled to (e.g. progressive taxation), but no one seems to convinced by this.
[+] [-] rcMgD2BwE72F|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 1minusp|4 years ago|reply
Clickbait-y title aside (other comments were pretty helpful to point this out), this sounds pretty positive.
[+] [-] kwhitefoot|4 years ago|reply
As for the trend saying that there will be zero new ICE car registrations by April next year; well take that with a large pinch of salt.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] sgarrity|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lastofthemojito|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dhosek|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Arnt|4 years ago|reply
AIUI there's no expectation that selling a used combustion car will become illegal. But people don't have confidence that they'll get a high price (not even for the export market).
[+] [-] varjag|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bagacrap|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alltakendamned|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] magicalhippo|4 years ago|reply
We have a BMW i3 94Ah model. When it's not cold we get about 230km range.
When it's fairly cold, -10C or below, that drops significantly. Not helped by my SO's requirement to not feel cold. Reported range is about 160km at worst (cold batteries).
Still, we live in the city and it's been just fine for us. We just leave it connected in the garage over night and set the planned departure time in the morning. That way it's ready with heated batteries, which helps a lot.
It hasn't bothered us so far. We knew the limitations going in, so we just plan a bit. Every now and then we get an extra 10-20 minute charging stop on our way back, meh.
Being able to fill the tank at home, so to speak, is great though. So is the lack of engine noise when driving slow or in traffic. It quickly became clear that our next vehicle would definitely be another EV.
[+] [-] dagw|4 years ago|reply
And while I'm sure there are some people who need a true off road vehicle, I see people happily drive their Model S and X on small gravel roads to their mountain cabins all the time.
[+] [-] fomine3|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jimmaswell|4 years ago|reply
If the engine goes on my 300zx though I might do an EV conversion. It'd feel like a shame doing that to a manual though. Maybe I'd just sell it and get an automatic to do that to since nobody wants those anyway.
Edit: apparently only a ban on sales, but everything car-related is obscenely expensive over there anyway.