[licyeus]

How is Gallup calculating risk? As far as I can tell from their appendix, they're using total hospitalizations / total US population. Ie, 2.6mm hospitalizations / 330mm population = ~0.8% risk of hospitalization.

This is obviously misleading: the pandemic is still ongoing. We're now at 3.1mm hospitalizations, does this mean risk has grown from 0.8->1% between Aug 9 and today? Or that in May 2020 the risk was essentially nil?

Once infected, risk of hospitalization (across all ages) is currently 7-8% (using 7-day rolling averages from CDC). Lower than people assume, but still concerning.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admis... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases|...