[chunghuaming]

GDP decline of 2-5%, recession: Chinese real estate is 70% of household wealth, and 30% of GDP. Likely these #s are worse, since the government obfuscates data. Home sales is already down 30% y/y.

Pressure on tech and other industries in China: Xi Jing Ping will officially be a dictator, come party congress 2022. Tech and real estate are industries owned by the oligarchs of Shanghai faction, which is against Xi Jing Ping.

Even more societal lockdowns: In the last few months, there were silencing of a #metoo incident, scrubbing of a famous actress from internet, removing discussions of evergrande bankruptcy, and disappearing/reapperance of alibaba's ceo. Look for more of these.

No war attempt on Taiwan in the near future: between real estate collapse, economic decline, coal shortage, food shortage, inflation, huge debts, and covid waves/lockdowns, CCP won't have any appetite.

Suicidal war attempt on Taiwan: CCP may get desperate when riots broke out, or need a victory to focus its citizen's outrage elsewhere. Then they'll face the combined forces of western countries, and will have to suffer through economic sanctions.

[randomopining]

Even if they take Taiwan, won’t they be completely shut out of world markets?

[loeg]

By what mechanism? Most of the world more or less officially recognizes China's claim on Taiwan. I think it would be horrifically sad and disappointing, but more or less ignored, like Hong Kong.