[nickthemagicman]

Yeah that's exactly the calculation were looking for.

Do you want me to run the numbers for a person under 18?

Trust me it will be drastically less chance of BP from covid than the vaccine.

We would never consider the idea... that an IV drug users chance of getting AIDS .. is the same chance as the rest of the population.

Yet for some reason people are okay with the idea that a healthy 18 year old has the same chance of negative outcomes from covid as an UNhealthy 75 year old. And that the response should be commensurate.

Very strange to me how we don't differentiate population and lifestyle adjustments to covid statistics.

VERY strange.

[morsch]

if I take a random American, what's the likelihood they're a person aged 50-64 and they're known to have had Covid by November 10, 2021 and then BP

Why would that be the calculation you're looking for? It's already off by an order of magnitude because the likelihood of any given American being in the age bracket is around 1:7. And it's another order of magnitude off because while not everyone has had a first infection or vaccination yet, everyone will, in the (not so) long run.

You're trying to prove you're less likely to get BP from Covid than from a vaccine while using a number -- the 0.08% -- that says the opposite, and yet you end up with a number you like. Because your calculation is just nonsense.

It's all kind of a moot point, since it's seemingly a relatively rare complication in both the disease and the vaccine; you're more likely to die from Covid than get BP if you're older than 45, as far as we know.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1...

[nickthemagicman]

chance of infection * chance of some complication

Its a very simple intuitive calculation that is used widely throughout epidemiology.

It feels like, with Covid, people try to add on unnecessary calculations or ignore important factors to shoehorn the numbers to fit a narrative.