For just a bit of context/anecdata, I'm talking to my brother who lives in Vancouver and he wasn't even aware this was a problem. The road closure[0] on hwy 1 near Abbotsford/Chilliwack is a good one hour drive away from Vancouver core[1]. So while it sounds noteworthy for an entire city be technically flooded in, unless you were driving to the boonies, you're probably not actually impacted in any meaningful way.
He also mentioned the weather cleared since yesterday, so floods should start to subside. You can follow the updates here[2]
I live in Vancouver - my coworkers and family were very aware of this, watching footage online and exclaiming at the brutal nature of the weather and landslides we experienced yesterday. Never seen this many roads closed in BC in my nearly 4 decades living here.
There was a case study I read in some supply chain courses a while back that was about supply disruptions in supermarkets due to a temporary but unforseen border closure somewhere in Central Europe. I don't remember exact numbers, but the relationship between the number of missed supply trucks and products out of stock was roughly exponential. After a single truck, there were like a dozen products out of stock. But after a second truck, there were over 400 products out of stock. By the fifth missed truck, 20% of the entire store was out of stock.
Since most stores have distribution centers that can break up replenishment into small increments, grocery stores typically use a method of inventory management that "tops up" inventory levels on a scheduled basis. High demand items might get replenished once a day or more, while some might get replenished on 2, 3, 4 day intervals all the way up to monthly intervals for low demand durable items. Replenishment schedules are staggered on a per-SKU basis, so that the number of trucks per day is roughly constant.
The short story is that delayed trucks might be a tiny annoyance, but a full supply disruption can cause utter chaos in less than a week. If reroutes through the US aren't facilitated, you can expect to see all of the most commonly purchased items in your grocery store out of stock far sooner than you expect.
Almost everyone in Vancouver, Vancouver Island, all over BC really, has flooded basements and other stuff to deal with. My school closed down due to power outages, for example. The road to the local landfill has washed out. Half of my classmates were without power last night, and one of them is on the wrong side of a mountain pass and will miss class today. Our teacher has decided not to bother trying to get to campus and we're back to Zoom school.
I’m a Vancouverite, and this is a pretty narrow, short sighted view. Sure, some people aren’t very impacted, but a tonne of people are. Lots of people who need to travel around the province but can’t, who were travelling and can’t return home, who can’t ship things in or out, whose basements are flooded, etc.
For just one story, my wife’s boss was travelling in the interior (drove there). Doesn’t have his passport because he wasn’t planning to leave the country. Is now stranded, trying to decide whether to abandon his car and fly home, so he can get back to the small business he runs, or try to wait it out so he can drive home in god knows how long. Tonnes of people facing impacts like this, or much worse.
I'm surprised there's no shortages yet because trucks can't get to the city. Or does Vancouver import most non-regional goods from the US (and not the rest of Canada) anyway?
Son has a hockey tournament next week in Vernon, BC. Due to road closure, Google Maps is sending me to Washington State and back into Canada. Absolutely wild.
If you live in Vancouver and are staying there it is not an issue.
But there is an amazing huge scale issue of access to the interior of British Columbia.
2 out of 3 highways from Alberta are closed. That means you have to drive either an ~ extra 500 miles north, or south, to travel 50-100 miles west or east.
There is no way to travel across a whole region of a huge country.
Similar to closing all east west highways in southern California, from the Mexico border to lake Tahoe.
Sure , you can drive down to Mexico, across to Tijuana, and back up.
As an anecdote, I live significantly East of Vancouver, but most of our goods come from the port of Vancouver. Things are going to get really interesting, as these roads will take a while to be repaired.
I live in Vancouver and had no idea until a friend in another country saw the news and asked me about it. Not to say people elsewhere in BC weren’t impacted (one town had to evacuate) but the media is not painting an accurate picture.
This is complete bullshit. EVERYONE is affected. Honestly, just read the BC news. If they think they aren't affected, then they don't understand BC supply chains and haven't noticed... yet.
"So while it sounds noteworthy for an entire city be technically flooded in, unless you were driving to the boonies, you're probably not actually impacted in any meaningful way."
Where do truck shipments come into Vancouver from ?
"The boonies", does that include Calgary? There is quite a bit of road traffic between Vancouver and Calgary via Kamloops and Banff. Or did you mean just West of the Rockies?
I've been to Vancouver before, but I"m completely ignorant about the supply chain there.
We're talking about a metropolis of 2.5 million people. What's the impact on food supplies, fuel, etc? Very curious. Is it primarily coming up from the US???
Doesn't this affect deliveries of needed supplies to the city? I guess the port and railways are not impacted, but I would think roads carry some significant cargo.
- If it is possible to come and go via the US, I wonder if a special allowance will be made for that
- I vaguely remember some major city in Alaska was said to have no road to the outside world? Google Maps shows a route from Anchorage to Juneau, but it goes through Canada.
Most of the population of Canada is within miles of the US border. For any given city, connection to the US is probably much more important than connections to other parts of Canada.
You could just as easily infer from this anecdata that people that live in cities tend to be very insulated from the infrastructure and larger support systems required to maintain their way of life...
...but Everything is Fine is an equally strong conclusion.
I love them because their reporting is terrible and the site itself is straight out of the 90's. They used to run polls that were easy to manipulate, according to a ex-coworker of mine. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Nonetheless, everybody in Kelowna acts like Castanet is the one true source of information...
One of my family members has been stuck just east of Hope, British Columbia[1] for almost two days now. There is currently no cell service, but luckily they have a Garmin inReach so we can communicate via its SMS feature.
For anybody with friends/family in the area, the BC subreddit megathread[2] on this is a good starting place to get information on evacuations, power outage status, road closures, official relevant Twitter accounts, etc.
Here's an article that gives people a better sense of how severe this is. I have lived in Southern BC for 40 years and cannot remember there ever being so many simultaneously affected areas from rain.
Some folks in Vancouver are saying they are unaffected... well what you really mean is you haven't noticed yet. There will absolutely be ripple effects. Even in Victoria we had a general "do not drive" advisory yesterday, and good luck getting a plumber if you need one this week.
I know city folks who have worked for the BC government in emergency management and are now stocking up on essentials...
More people need to think about their emergency preparedness. We're not talking about permanent societal collapse; just a week-long collapse of electricity, food supply, water, transportation, or other critical goods.
If you live in a cold climate: go buy an indoor safe propane heater right now, with a supply of propane. Its not that expensive (maybe $100) for the value you will get out of it in the coming years. It can single-handedly be the difference between being able to hunker down in your home, and having to rely on external support that you'll pray is there for you when the time comes. A carbon monoxide detector is also good to pair with it, to be safe. Blankets as well.
Water is easy, though pretty large volume. Food also isn't as hard as it used to be; having a weeks supply of emergency rations is fine, but consider: Soylent, Huel, etc. Their powder form has a published shelf life of a year, its volumetrically dense, nutritionally complete, only requires water to make, and tastes pretty good.
CASH. Some way to start fire. Candles. A couple flashlights. Batteries (the huge ones made for camping are fantastic, though expensive). Two way radios with very long-range are also a fantastic investment; imagine its the winter, power & cell service is down, and a loved one has to try a local store for some supply you forgot.
Compounded by areas with sparse infrastructure, like B.C. I've done the drive from Washington to Alaska twice, and once the road was washed out somewhere not terribly far north of Vancouver, which necessitated a near 1,100 KM detour inland!
I agree we need to deal with global warming. We also need to continue getting better at dealing with disasters. Thankfully, so far our ability to deal with natural disasters is outpacing the increased frequency.
While Frequency Of Natural Disasters Is Increasing, Related Death Tolls Are Actually Decreasing
Interestingly, there is a railroad line that goes north from Vancouver, through Whistler and Pemberton, but takes a different route than Highway 99 to get to Lillooet[1]. The highway (aka The Duffey, as it passes Duffey Lake) gains and then loses something like 1000m of elevation, whereas the railroad line is much flatter and travels along Gates Lake, Anderson Lake, and Seton Lake. There are dirt/gravel roads there too, but I'm not sure if they are used in the winter.
The railroad route is not used much these days, partly because of all the trains that fell into the lake due to how windy (edit: that's windy as in lots of turns, not windy as in lots of air blowing over it) the track is (e.g. [2]).
In January 2016, the cable-stayed bridge over the Nipigon River in northern Ontario that is the only road link between eastern and western Canada was closed when it began to buckle at an expansion joint.
There are quite a few single-points-of-failure on the road from Halifax to Vancouver, each of which would cause at least a few 100 to maybe even more than 1000 km detours through country that really isn't ready to deal with any kind of extra traffic. Especially North of Sault ste. Marie all the way to Thunder bay and between Vancouver and Calgary.
Any problem there and you're going to be driving 100's of km on logging roads, unpaved, no facilities (gas, food).
Railways to the east are also washed out. [1] And the farm country in the cities of Abbotsford and Chilliwack to the east of Vancouver, which supplies most of the local dairy & poultry, is now either completely flooded or cut off. [2]
This is kind of a big deal for shipping. Approximately $200 billion goods/year travel through Vancouver, including millions of (metric) tonnes of grain bound for Asia, and imports of Chinese goods bound for the rest of Canada. Most of that traffic now needs to find another route until repairs are made.
Forks WA is currently completely inaccessible by car. Extensive flooding everywhere. All highways and roads are closed. Connecting forest service roads have washed out.
The other day, I was in Whistler and tried to use Google Maps to route back to Vancouver. It wanted me to take logging roads through the back country.. roads that are actually deactivated and impossible to traverse unless you have a trail bike perhaps. That’s Canada for you…
To folks saying "Vancouver will be fine, everything comes in on boats", here is an info sheet from the city of Vancouver detailing exactly where the food comes from. As you can see, meat, grain, and dairy will be heavily affected if trucks can't get from the Fraser Valley on east into town.
The majority of, well, everything in Canada comes from China (as with all countries). And it all arrives via port of Vancouver.
Christmas shopping is going to be interesting this year, unless they get the freight moving asap.
It is disappointing to see some people thinking this is not a big deal. Please don't spread that kind of misinformation.
We had multiple highways closed over southern BC, many roads down, power outages, municipalities evacuated, and tons of homes flooded in towns and cities all over southern BC. This is affecting a hell of a lot more than whether we can get to the rest of the country by road. There is almost no one who is not impacted. I'm on Vancouver Island and houses are having their basements flood, conking out heaters. Meritt is evacuated. The Malahat highway was closed. Ferries were cancelled. Various roads are GONE. Like - the asphalt is now in a river. Folks are getting airlifted out of highways by military copters.
This is unprecedented bad shit here - don't minimize it.
A different article[1] I read with a similar headline has this claim:
> To leave the Lower Mainland of BC, you would have to use Highway 99, Highway 1, or the Coquihalla.
I'm not at all familiar with the area. Are there really only 3 roads between Vancouver and the rest of Canada without going through Washington? That seems like such a low number.
I live inthe interior, about 5hrs from Vancouver, and we are only cut off from Vancouver and Calgary...but our grocery stores are now out\very low on vegetable and dairy.
I suspect some panic buying, but very sobering to see how fragile our food delivery system is.
I'd expect this to be a bigger problem for Edmonton and Calgary than for Vancouver. The former cities now have no road access to the port of Vancouver.
[+] [-] lhorie|4 years ago|reply
He also mentioned the weather cleared since yesterday, so floods should start to subside. You can follow the updates here[2]
[0] https://www.drivebc.ca/mobile/pub/events/id/DBC-35180.html
[1] https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Vancouver,+BC,+Canada/Abbots...
[2] https://www.drivebc.ca/#listView
[+] [-] amatecha|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] skeeter2020|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] darksaints|4 years ago|reply
Since most stores have distribution centers that can break up replenishment into small increments, grocery stores typically use a method of inventory management that "tops up" inventory levels on a scheduled basis. High demand items might get replenished once a day or more, while some might get replenished on 2, 3, 4 day intervals all the way up to monthly intervals for low demand durable items. Replenishment schedules are staggered on a per-SKU basis, so that the number of trucks per day is roughly constant.
The short story is that delayed trucks might be a tiny annoyance, but a full supply disruption can cause utter chaos in less than a week. If reroutes through the US aren't facilitated, you can expect to see all of the most commonly purchased items in your grocery store out of stock far sooner than you expect.
[+] [-] Kluny|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yashap|4 years ago|reply
For just one story, my wife’s boss was travelling in the interior (drove there). Doesn’t have his passport because he wasn’t planning to leave the country. Is now stranded, trying to decide whether to abandon his car and fly home, so he can get back to the small business he runs, or try to wait it out so he can drive home in god knows how long. Tonnes of people facing impacts like this, or much worse.
[+] [-] skrebbel|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] csel|4 years ago|reply
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Surrey,+BC/Vernon,+BC/@48.86...
[+] [-] pomian|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ryanisnan|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zaptheimpaler|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iainctduncan|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rsync|4 years ago|reply
Where do truck shipments come into Vancouver from ?
Is it all through the US/CA border ?
[+] [-] jacquesm|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] JPKab|4 years ago|reply
I've been to Vancouver before, but I"m completely ignorant about the supply chain there.
We're talking about a metropolis of 2.5 million people. What's the impact on food supplies, fuel, etc? Very curious. Is it primarily coming up from the US???
[+] [-] vmception|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tehjoker|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] perl4ever|4 years ago|reply
- I vaguely remember some major city in Alaska was said to have no road to the outside world? Google Maps shows a route from Anchorage to Juneau, but it goes through Canada.
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] barbazoo|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|4 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] woah|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kazinator|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] max-ibel|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] time_to_smile|4 years ago|reply
...but Everything is Fine is an equally strong conclusion.
[+] [-] Dedime|4 years ago|reply
I love them because their reporting is terrible and the site itself is straight out of the 90's. They used to run polls that were easy to manipulate, according to a ex-coworker of mine. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Nonetheless, everybody in Kelowna acts like Castanet is the one true source of information...
[+] [-] beebs93|4 years ago|reply
For anybody with friends/family in the area, the BC subreddit megathread[2] on this is a good starting place to get information on evacuations, power outage status, road closures, official relevant Twitter accounts, etc.
1: https://goo.gl/maps/CXcNEUmAx8gpF5CTA
2: https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/qubkc6/flo...
[+] [-] iainctduncan|4 years ago|reply
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-floods-tu...
And one on the supply chain effects: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bc-floods-rail-impact-1.625...
Some folks in Vancouver are saying they are unaffected... well what you really mean is you haven't noticed yet. There will absolutely be ripple effects. Even in Victoria we had a general "do not drive" advisory yesterday, and good luck getting a plumber if you need one this week.
I know city folks who have worked for the BC government in emergency management and are now stocking up on essentials...
[+] [-] wing-_-nuts|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 015a|4 years ago|reply
If you live in a cold climate: go buy an indoor safe propane heater right now, with a supply of propane. Its not that expensive (maybe $100) for the value you will get out of it in the coming years. It can single-handedly be the difference between being able to hunker down in your home, and having to rely on external support that you'll pray is there for you when the time comes. A carbon monoxide detector is also good to pair with it, to be safe. Blankets as well.
Water is easy, though pretty large volume. Food also isn't as hard as it used to be; having a weeks supply of emergency rations is fine, but consider: Soylent, Huel, etc. Their powder form has a published shelf life of a year, its volumetrically dense, nutritionally complete, only requires water to make, and tastes pretty good.
CASH. Some way to start fire. Candles. A couple flashlights. Batteries (the huge ones made for camping are fantastic, though expensive). Two way radios with very long-range are also a fantastic investment; imagine its the winter, power & cell service is down, and a loved one has to try a local store for some supply you forgot.
[+] [-] jacquesm|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Arrath|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 99_00|4 years ago|reply
While Frequency Of Natural Disasters Is Increasing, Related Death Tolls Are Actually Decreasing
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimfoerster/2021/10/01/while-fr...
[+] [-] blondie9x|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] boborhythm|4 years ago|reply
The railroad route is not used much these days, partly because of all the trains that fell into the lake due to how windy (edit: that's windy as in lots of turns, not windy as in lots of air blowing over it) the track is (e.g. [2]).
1: https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=10/50.5405/-122.6157
2: https://www.trailtimes.ca/news/cn-freight-train-derails-alon...
[+] [-] frosted-flakes|4 years ago|reply
In January 2016, the cable-stayed bridge over the Nipigon River in northern Ontario that is the only road link between eastern and western Canada was closed when it began to buckle at an expansion joint.
[+] [-] jacquesm|4 years ago|reply
Any problem there and you're going to be driving 100's of km on logging roads, unpaved, no facilities (gas, food).
[+] [-] foofoo55|4 years ago|reply
[1] https://www.radionl.com/2021/11/15/cn-cp-trains-out-of-servi...
[2] https://www.abbynews.com/news/immediate-evacuation-order-due...
[+] [-] btilly|4 years ago|reply
This is kind of a big deal for shipping. Approximately $200 billion goods/year travel through Vancouver, including millions of (metric) tonnes of grain bound for Asia, and imports of Chinese goods bound for the rest of Canada. Most of that traffic now needs to find another route until repairs are made.
[+] [-] ortusdux|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iainctduncan|4 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/RobinMonks/status/1460690606410194949
[+] [-] ttul|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iainctduncan|4 years ago|reply
http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/Pla...
Aaaand it sounds like we're going into a provincial state of emergency tomorrow.
[+] [-] nikanj|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iainctduncan|4 years ago|reply
We had multiple highways closed over southern BC, many roads down, power outages, municipalities evacuated, and tons of homes flooded in towns and cities all over southern BC. This is affecting a hell of a lot more than whether we can get to the rest of the country by road. There is almost no one who is not impacted. I'm on Vancouver Island and houses are having their basements flood, conking out heaters. Meritt is evacuated. The Malahat highway was closed. Ferries were cancelled. Various roads are GONE. Like - the asphalt is now in a river. Folks are getting airlifted out of highways by military copters.
This is unprecedented bad shit here - don't minimize it.
[+] [-] rubylark|4 years ago|reply
> To leave the Lower Mainland of BC, you would have to use Highway 99, Highway 1, or the Coquihalla.
I'm not at all familiar with the area. Are there really only 3 roads between Vancouver and the rest of Canada without going through Washington? That seems like such a low number.
[1] https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/highway-closures-flooding-mu...
[+] [-] Scoundreller|4 years ago|reply
The US is still well connected while Canada has just broken itself in 2.
[+] [-] jrace|4 years ago|reply
I suspect some panic buying, but very sobering to see how fragile our food delivery system is.
[+] [-] dreamcompiler|4 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hinkley|4 years ago|reply